Weekly report -- Nov 23, 2013

 

 

Hammersmith Marketing Ltd - Grain Trading

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   November 23, 2013

                                                                       

 

France:  Rep. Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

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Corporate Office: Trident Services, Kings Court, Bay Street, PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com       SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

 

It is interesting to note that the response from readers to my note advising that the weekly report would remain as a free report was much higher than my note about possible subscription fees.

 

SECTION 1:  FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

Corn prices didn't seem to want to do anything much this week as both the end of day prices and the end of week prices showed very little change at all. There just appears to be too much bearish news in the corn market these days to allow prices to move any higher at all. I suppose that if China suddenly bought a few million m/t of corn that would have some effect or if the weather in South America looked to be delaying crop planting. However, so far today no major purchases by China and the South American corn planting weather looks to be very good and the ground moisture looks good for germination.

 

As you can see from the numbers below, there is not much more that can do any damage to the USA harvest and even the Ukraine harvest seems to be catching up while the Russian corn harvest is at its highest level ever. Corn harvests in parts of Europe, especially France where I am, have been slowed by wet weather and are quite a bit behind normal but with some decent weather will catch up very quickly.

 

For corn prices, it looks difficult to get prices moving any higher unless there is increased demand or a supply problem but them it may also be tough to make prices go much lower as the US farmer does not want to sell his corn at rock bottom prices and will sit on it for a while longer. Perhaps we are at an equilibrium level for corn prices for now.

 

Soybeans were different to corn since they did sell some to China which could make Nov/Dec export supplies a little tight and there are some that say that China will be looking for more US soybeans very shortly. Old crop soybean prices are still at a premium to new crop but only by USD 5 m/t or so but more prompt China demand could widen the old crop/new crop spread. 

 

As with corn, the US farmer has been sitting on his soybean supply and doesn't want to sell much at the current price levels, which will probably make soybean prices more vulnerable to rallies in price rather than drops.

 

With soybean export sales so far this marketing year being so good we will certainly find that the USDA will have to revise their export estimates and this will reduce ending stocks and could give the market quite a bit of price support. 

 

 

USA crop harvest progress - percentage harvested – per USDA

 

	2013 %	2012%	Average%
Corn	91.0	99.0	86.0
Soybeans	95.0	98.0	96.0
Sorghum	91.0	93.0	86.0

 

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000	$23.50
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax	$36/40.00
US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT	$39/41.00
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$36.00
US Gulf Morocco: 25,000	$40/41.00
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$37.00
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$56.00
US PNW Asia: 45,000 m/t	$33.00
US PNW Japan: 50,000+ m/t	$28.00
France to Algeria: 25,000 m/t	$25.00
France to Saudi Arabia: 60,000 m/t	$30.00
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000	$33.00
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t	$35.00
Argentina to Morocco: 25,000	$33.00
Argentina to Saudi Arabia	$48.00
Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t	$30.00
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$26.00
Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t	$24.00
Brazil to Saudi Arabia	$40.00
Black Sea to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$26/27.00
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t	$22/24.00
Black Sea to East Med: coaster	$35/38.00

 

  

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tones:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 284>>277 Nov/Feb
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 312>>310 Nov/Feb
Wheat, Black Sea 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 283/289
Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port	USD 283/286
Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver	USD 350>>340 Dec>>Feb
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 273/277
Wheat bran, Black Sea	USD 190/200
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 249/252
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver	USD 214/219 Jan/Feb new crop
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 242/247
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 255/260

 

Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 208>>201 Dec>>Feb
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 229>>221 Dec>>Feb
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 206/210 Nov/Dec/Jan
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 192/197 Nov/Dec/Jan
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 200/206 Spot>>Nov/Feb
Corn, FOB France	USD 243/248 Nov/Dec
Sorghum, FOB Texas, low tannin, GMO free	USD  225/228 Dec/Jan/Feb
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port, high tannin, GMO free	USD  195/206 Dec/Jan/Feb
Sorghum, FOB Black Sea - Ukraine	USD  210/213 Dec/Jan

 

Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA	USD 546>>527 Nov>>Jan 2014
Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 573>>560 Spot>>Jan 2014
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 555/560 Spot>>Jan 2014
Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina	USD 529/535 Dec/Jan
Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 554/558 Spot>>Jan 2014
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 520/525 Dec/Jan
Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB	USD 540/550

 

Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t

 

Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD   815/820 m/t
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD   220/225 m/t
DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD   300>>288 m/t Dec>>Feb
DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asia	USD   345>>339 m/t Dec>>Feb

 

There was no major change in corn prices this week but we did see DDGS prices move lower on the week without any push from corn.  Perhaps the DDGS prices for Nov/Dec were pushed a little too high but then, as there is little or none available for 2013, the prices can do whatever they want. According to the US Grains Council report this week, cattle producers in the USA have cut back on DDGS feeding a little due to very low prices for corn, so this would add a little weakness to the DDGS market, at least in the USA.  Not much is expected to happen with prices over the next week as much of the USA will be closed Thursday and Friday for the Thanksgiving holiday. I should mention, as a Canadian, that Thanksgiving in Canada is in October because no one in Canada wants to give any thanks in a cold winter month like November (it was -13 in Winnipeg yesterday).

 

Corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed are just idling along with no changes in price at all this week. Perhaps with the jump in soymeal prices the CGM should have moved higher but since it had moved up very strongly in the past few weeks it didn't seem to have the legs to go higher.

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein	USD  sorry no updated prices this week
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein	USD        "       "
Europe MBM 50 protein	USD        "       "
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal    Australian Poultry meal, pet food grade	USD 480/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 530/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 640/650 m/t CNF Asia USD 770/790 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 540/560 m/t CNF Asia USD 650/660 m/t CNF Asia USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia USD 830/850 m/t CNF Asia

 

The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk

 

Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein	USD 450/470 m/t
Feathermeal  80 protein USA	USD 570/590 m/t
Poultry meal  57 protein, Eastern USA	USD 510/530 m/t

 

Export prices into Asia for animal proteins from Australia and New Zealand were steady this week but there was a bump higher in USA prices as the domestic price in the US moved higher. There is reported to be quite good demand in Asia for meat and bone meal and experts are looking for prices to move higher in the next couple of weeks.

 

On the USA side there is not too much expected of the market at present as most shippers say that they are pretty well sold out of export positions into early 2014 and with a great many holidays coming up over the next four weeks no one is expecting a great deal of new buying demand.

 

USA domestic prices could move a little higher on local demand and strong Asia demand will probably keep export prices firm or at least stop them from moving lower.

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Fishing in Peru has been doing quite well with the daily catch no in the 55,000 to 65,000 m/t range with the average number of vessels up at about the 600 level every day. The discussion these days is whether the full quota will be landed before the end of 2013 with some experts feeling quite confident that it will.

 

Export sales business remains slow as it looks like buyers are waiting for the fishmeal stocks to grow in the hopes of lower prices. As to actual market prices, there is quite a wide range seen in various market reports this week but then with low sales levels it is very difficult to determine actual price levels. Looking at the price indications below, it seems that prices could be +/- 20 USD from these levels, depending on who you talk to or what you read.  

 

The market does report that there are some bids from buyers in China but that they are below the current market prices so sellers are not taking them seriously but perhaps they will as stocks start to grow. Luckily for the producers, they did sell quite a bit of production in advance of fishing so there will not be too much inventory pressure until we get in to late January or perhaps February.

 

For some reason there seems to have been a rush in people asking about fishmeal analogue over the past couple of weeks. Perhaps it is only due to a new feeding cycle happening in some countries.

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

 ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port
65 protein	1310/1330 m/t
65/66 protein	1380/1390 m/t
67 protein standard steam	1400/1410 m/t
67 protein SD 150  TVN	1420/1430 m/t
67 protein SD 120 TVN	1440/1450 m/t
67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1460/1470 m/t
68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN	1480/1490 m/t
Fish oil .. crude bulk	1700/1750
Fish oil – crude drums	1950/2000
Fish oil – flexitank	1800/1850
Fish oil – Omega 3 – 28%EPA/DHA	2300/2350

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

Wayne Bacon

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete.  Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy.  All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2013 Wayne S. Bacon