Hammersmith Marketing Ltd - Grain Trading
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT May 03, 2014
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
13+220 Quartier La Galine, D-99, Mas Martin, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
Corporate Office: Trident Corporate Services (Bahamas) Limited, Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce,
One Bay Street, PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
SECTION 1: FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Both corn and soybean prices finished the week a little lower, contrary to most wheat prices which, in the case of Hard Red winter, were up quite strongly. Overall the cash corn prices dropped by about USD 4 m/t after having been up nearly USD 10 early in the week. The prices has moved higher on the forecast for bad weather and the effect that it might have on the corn planting but as the week went on the weather forecast got much better and prices drifted lower. There is some rain expected in the next few days but US farmers will still be out there planting like mad. The trade expects that the USDA planting report on Monday will show the percentage up to just over 30%, this will still be below the five year average but planting can catch up very quickly.
Next Friday we will have the latest USDA WASDE report along with updated export sales numbers and, as usual, the expectation of report numbers will probably make the market nervous as the week progresses.
USA soybean prices finished the week down by about USD 7 m/t with much of the drop due to much improved weather for planting and rumours that China was cancelling more soybean business. Of course there is also the number of soybean shipments said to be coming from South America to the US – there certainly seem to be a number of very good reasons for soybean prices to move lower in the short term. With both Argentina and Brazil soybeans selling at a considerable discount to USA soybeans there is certainly no reason to expect US imports to stop – at least until prices get closer together.
USA Crop Progress report – April 28, 2014
| Product | Last year % | Last week % | This week % | 5 year Average % |
| Corn planted | 5 | 6 | 19 | 28 |
| Soybeans planted |
|
| 3 | 4 |
| Sorghum planted | 27 | 23 | 27 | 26 |
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 | $17.00 |
|
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $30/32.00 | Up 1.00 |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT | $34/35.00 |
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| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $31/33.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000 | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Up $2.00 |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $32/34.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf Yemen 35/45.000 | $45/46.00 |
|
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $46/47.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $46/47.00 |
|
| US PNW Asia: 35/45,000 m/t | $34/36.00 |
|
| US PNW Japan: 50,000+ m/t | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US PNW China: 50,000+ m/t | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 |
| France to Algeria: 30,000 m/t | $25.00 |
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| France to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $26.00 |
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| France to Egypt: 30,000 m/t | $26.00 |
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| France to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t | $31.00 |
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| France to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 m/t | $38.00 |
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| Argentina to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $23.00 |
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| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $43.00 |
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| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $30/31.00 |
|
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 |
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| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $29/30.00 |
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| Brazil to Europe | $25.00 |
|
| Black Sea to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $17/18.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $22/23.00 |
|
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t | $14/15.00 |
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| Black Sea to East Med: coaster | $23/24.00 |
|
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $25/27.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Baltic Dry Index | 1017 | Up 50 |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1829 | Up 133 |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 915 | Up 51 |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 510 | Down 7 |
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 306>>287 May>>July | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 364>>358 May>>July | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 296/304 Apr/Jun | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.0 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 294/297 Apr/Jun | x |
| Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port | USD 294/297 May/July | x |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver | USD 330/340 May/July | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 245/255 July | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 247/250 May/July | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 220/230 Jul/Aug | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 243/246 May/July | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 267/272 | x |
| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 231>>227 May/July | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 243/245 May/July | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 220/225 Jun/Aug | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 218/226 July/Aug new crop | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 252/260 May/July | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 257/264 May/July | x |
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| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 263>>245 May/July | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 177/185 Jun/Aug | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 590>>573 May>>July | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 652>>622 May>>July | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 593>>560 May>>July | x |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 538>>512 May>>July | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 574>>555 May>>July | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 532>>503 May>>July | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB | USD 660/670 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 578>>568 May>>July | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 531>>508 May/July | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 537>>502 May>>July | x |
| Soybeans, Rotterdam | USD 597>>584 May>>July | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD no offers |
|
Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 910/920 m/t May/July | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 215/220 m/t May/July | x |
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| DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 290>>276 m/t May>>July | x |
| DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asia | USD 363>>357 m/t May>>July | x |
Much of the non-North American world was off on May 1st (and some on the 2nd) as they were all out marching and waving flags for the socialist May Day holiday. The holidays meant that new export business was a little thin. However, the trade did report that buyers in Vietnam were quite active in the containerized DDGS market for June/July shipment. At present there seems to be more weakness in USA domestic prices than in export prices as US feed demand always falls off in the summer time which can push more product into the export market.
The drop in corn prices this week has helped to lower corn gluten feed prices but there is no real weakness at all seen in corn gluten meal as domestic and export demand continue to keep prices quite firm. There was also little or no weakness in soymeal prices this week so not much reason for CGM to move lower.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 520/530 CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 470/480 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 610/630 m/t CNF Asia USD 660/680 m/t CNF Asia USD 860/870 m/t CNF Asia USD 1020/1040 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 710/730 m/t CNF Asia USD 930/940 m/t CNF Asia USD 830/850 m/t CNF Asia USD 1100/1120 m/t CNF Asia |
The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk
| Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein | USD 510/540 m/t |
| Feathermeal 80 protein USA | USD 750/770 m/t |
| Poultry meal 57 protein, Eastern USA | USD 660/680 m/t |
Export prices for meat and bone meal seem to be about USD 10 to 20 m/t lower from most origins. Market experts say that the recent rush of business pushed prices too high in Asia and now on reduced demand prices are getting back to a more normal level versus other protein items. Prices in Asia for feathermeal and poultry meal don't seem to be showing any weakness – just MBM at present.
USA export prices are either steady or down a little depending on which trade report you read. The domestic market in the US is weakening a little as MBM prices now seem a tad too high versus soymeal. Feathermeal and poultry meal prices are steady but experts do feel that there is going to be some room for all animal proteins to slide a little lower over the spring and summer months
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
Fishing on the new quota has started but the number of vessels fishing the northern area is still quite low with only just over 100 vessels out. The total catch to May 1st has been 100,000 m/t with the highest catch just reaching 25,000 m/t. Fishing in the south of Peru for the 430,000 m/t quota is still moving along with the quota now 57% used. The government did extend the southern fishing period to May 31st, so there is still some time to finish the quota. Fishing in the south is actually very good with just over 60,000 m/t landed this week. If the southern fishing stays good they could finish the quota in about 4 weeks.
Not much new in the export sales side of things as buyers are all out of the market and sellers aren't offering until they get a better feel for how the fishing is going. The prices from Peru seemed to be a little weaker this week with some prices down by about USD 20 m/t but with trading being so thin it is not too easy to get an accurate price level.
The IFFO meeting in London has ended and all the buyers and sellers are winging their way home. No news as yet on how much was bought/sold during the IFFO meeting but this should be in trade reports later in the week. The reports of sales won't be in detail but there should certainly be a good indication on how business was during the London meetings.
There was an article in the press this week that said that if the El Nino situation starts to look serious for later in 2014 then fishmeal prices could move quite a bit higher – the belief being (at least in the article) they the late 2014 fishing season could be badly hurt by an El Nino event which would seriously limit fishmeal supply later in the year.
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port |
|
|
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| 65 protein | 1450/1470 m/t |
| 65/66 protein | 1500/1520 m/t |
| 67 protein standard steam | 1520/1540 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1540/1560 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1560/1580 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1580/1600 m/t |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1600/1620 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1950/2000 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2150/2200 |
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2100/2150 |
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2600/2800 |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
Wayne Bacon
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2014 Wayne S. Bacon
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