Weekly report -- May 25, 2014

 

Hammersmith Marketing Ltd - Grain Trading

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   May 25, 2014

 

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SECTION 1:  FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

Corn had quite a boring week this week while soybeans/soymeal were very strong and wheat prices slipped lower.

 

The US corn planting is catching up to the average so there is no reason for anyone to be too concerned about how the planting will go. Experts feel that the planting report this Tuesday (after the US holiday on Monday) will show planting at over 85% complete and the remaining 15% won't take too long to be completed. Then we will all be watching the weekly USDA crop condition reports to see how the wee plants are doing.

 

Market experts don't seem to think that there will be much more downside on corn prices and that from now through the growing season it would seem more likely to have a rally in prices rather than a drop. There has also been the comment in the trade that with South American prices becoming very competitive with the US the export sales may start to slack a little – while this may not push prices lower it could put a damper on any rallies.

 

The very wet weather in Argentina that has been delaying their harvest seems to be coming to an end so that farmers will get back to the harvest. Both the corn and soybean harvest are well behind where they normally are at this time of the year.

 

With soybeans, the major problem is the concern over the stocks of old crop beans on hand and how tight the supply is actually going to get in the US before there are any new crop beans. With prices up by USD 15 to 18 m/t this week, there is said to be a rush of new orders for South American soybean shipments to the US. No one seems too certain whether the imports of soybeans will stop the run up in old crop prices and the spill-over rally in new crop prices.

 

However, there have been some comments that the parts of the US with delayed corn plantings could switch some of the planting to soybeans. Also, with the very high soybean prices versus corn farmers may see more profit in switching some of their crop to soybeans.

 

Most trade reports this week feel that the old crop beans/soymeal will remain quite strong and that the new crop will be much more vulnerable to price fluctuations as we get into the growing season and, as a bit of a major wild card, as everyone gets a better idea of what China will do about their soybean needs.

 

 

USA Crop Progress report – May 19, 2014

 

Product	Last year %	Last week %	This week %	5 year Average %
Corn planted	65	59	73	76
Soybeans planted	21	20	33	38
Sorghum planted	34	36	39	39
Wheat planted	64	34	49	68
Barley planted	68	55	68	69

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000	$16.00		x
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$28/29.00	New	X
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax	$28/29.00		X
US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT	$34/35.00		X
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$30/32.00		X
US Gulf Morocco: 25,000	$32/33.00		X
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$38/39.00		x
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$31/33.00		x
US Gulf Yemen 35/45.000	$45/46.00		X
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$46/47.00		X
US Gulf China: Panamax	$44/45.00		X
US PNW Asia: 35/45,000 m/t	$34/36.00		X
US PNW Japan: 50,000+ m/t	$23/24.00	Down $2.00	x
US PNW China: 50,000+ m/t	$23/24.00	Down $2.00	x
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t	$23.00	Down $1.00	x
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t	$24.00	Down $1.00	x
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$41.00	New	x
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$23.00		x
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t	$28.00	Down $1.00	x
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 m/t	$34.00	Down $2.00	X
Argentina to Europe: 60,000 m/t	$21/22.00	Up $2.00	X
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$31/32.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t	$32/33.00		X
Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t	$32/33.00		x
Argentina to Saudi Arabia	$43.00		x
Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t	$31/32.00		x
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$32/33.00		x
Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t	$30/31.00		x
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$36/37.00		x
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$24/25.00		x
Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t	$30/31.00		x
Brazil to Europe	$25.00		x
Black Sea to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$17/18.00	Down $1.00	x
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t	$21/22.00		x
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t	$13/14.00	Down $1.00	x
Black Sea to East Med: coaster	$25/26.00		x
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$25/27.00	Down $1.00	x
Baltic Dry Index	964	Down 63	x
Baltic Capesize Index	1358	Down 172	x
Baltic Panamax Index	1001	Up 102	x
Baltic Handisize Index	480	Down 5	x

*** see sources note

 

 

 

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 268/272 Jun/Aug	x
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 331/333 Jun/Aug	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 281/286 Jun/Jul	x
Wheat, Russia 12.0 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 287/291 Jun/July	x
Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port	USD 271/274 Jun/July	x
Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver	USD 350/355 June/July	x
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 240/247 July/Aug	x
Wheat Bran, Black Sea	USD 237/245 Jun/Aug	x
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 220/224 Jun/July	x
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver	USD 220/228 Jul/Aug	X
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 230/235 Jun/July	x
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 280/285	x

 

Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 221>>218 Jun/July	x
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 233/235 Jun/July	x
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 225>>213 Jun/Aug	x
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 209/215 July/Aug new crop	x
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 250/260 Jun/July	x
Corn, FOB France	USD 240/243 Jun/July	x
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD  251>>241 May/July	x
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD  185/194 Jun/Aug	x

 

 

Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA	USD 590>>575 Jun>>July	X
Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 650>>618 Jun>>July	X
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 590>>584 Jun>>July	X
Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina	USD 553>>505 Jun>>Aug	X
Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 575>>570 Jun>>July	X
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 527>>504 Jun>>Aug	X
Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB	USD 660/670	X
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 581>>572 Jun>>July	X
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 536>>501 Jun>>July	X
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 530>>500 Jun>>July	X
Soybeans, Rotterdam	USD 599>>589 Jun>>July	X
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD no price	x

*** see sources note

 

 

Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t

 

Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD   895/910 m/t  Jun/Aug	x
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD   221/228 m/t  Jun/Aug	x
DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD   278>>273 m/t Jun>Aug	X
DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asia	USD   345>>342 m/t Jun>>Aug	x

*** see sources note

 

DDGS prices slipped a little lower again this week as the supply side seemed to have a very good stock while buyers were not too active. The situation seems to be that buyers are convinced prices will be moving lower and no one wants to commit too much as yet. Also, with most buyer not needing any supply until Aug/Sep there seems to be good reason to hold off a little before buying. The trade reports that DDGS buying bids in the market are at USD 10 to 20 m/t below current offers. So, it looks like, if buyers have their way, DDGS prices will be moving lower.

 

Depending on which trade report you read this week the prices for corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed were either up or down by a few dollars. Overall it looks like little or nothing has changed with prices and the corn by-product market is just waiting for the next exciting thing to happen to corn prices. Supply for CGM  and CGF looks decent with supply and demand seeming to be reasonably well balanced for now.

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein	USD 500/510 CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein	USD 430/450 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia  USD 650/670 m/t CNF Asia  USD 860/870 m/t CNF Asia  USD 1050/1080 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 670/700 m/t CNF Asia  USD 920/940 m/t CNF Asia  USD 800/820 m/t CNF Asia  USD 1100/1120 m/t CNF Asia

*** see sources note

 

 

The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk

 

Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein	USD 510/530 m/t
Feathermeal  80 protein USA	USD 740/760 m/t
Poultry meal  57 protein, Eastern USA	USD 660/680 m/t

*** see sources note

 

As with the fishmeal business, the export animal protein business seemed to be quite slow this week. I guess that everyone must be at a trade show or conference somewhere. Very little is reported in happening from Australia although it is reported that the sellers are trying to move export prices a little higher with buyers not much interested in higher prices.

 

Animal proteins in the USA domestic and export markets felt a little weak although trade prices are still steady (or so the sellers say). Soymeal didn't move lower this week so there is not much downward pressure on animal protein prices. One major US trade reports has said that animal protein prices could move a little lower but they don't see any major drop in prices at all. Of course, a collapse in soymeal prices would change that but no one much expects soymeal to collapse.

 

South American MBM exporters report a little business to Asia and this after quite a period with no shipments to Asian buyers. South America still can't compete against low cost European product.

 

So, prices seem steady, availability seems good, freight rates are down a little and the market is quiet.  

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

 

 

Up to Friday this week the catch in Peru was about 630,000 m/t of fish which leaves just under 2 million m/t on the North/Central Peru fishing quota. The Southern fishing quota shows about 265,000 m/t landed against a quota of 430,000 m/t leaving about 160,000 m/t still to land.

 

There has been the odd short term fishing ban in some areas, which I imagine makes life difficult for the vessel owners – after all, what do you do with your vessel during a 24 hour ban? Is there enough time to move to another area – is a move worthwhile – or do they just sit around and play cards for a few hours.   

 

This week has seemed to be very quiet on both the sales side and the pricing side. Not much activity from buyers and no change at all to the prices seen in the market.

 

There was some interest in North Africa this week for Morocco fishmeal and buyers were looking at prices from USD 1440 to USD 1480 for 65 to 67% protein fishmeal, which is just slightly below where the Peru prices are.

 

Hopefully there will be something more exciting and interesting to report in the fishmeal business next week.

 

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port
65 protein	1450/1470 m/t
65/66 protein	1480/1500 m/t
67 protein standard steam	1520/1540 m/t
67 protein SD 150  TVN	1540/1560 m/t
67 protein SD 120 TVN	1560/1580 m/t
67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1580/1600 m/t
68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN	1600/1620 m/t
Fish oil, crude bulk	1950/2000
Fish oil, crude drums	2150/2200
Fish oil, flexi tank	2100/2150
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2600/2800

*** see sources note

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

Wayne Bacon

 

 

*** sources for information for the Weekly Report:

 

US Grains Council  --- www.grains.org,

International Grains Council – www.igc.int

US Wheat -- www.uswheat.org ,

France AgriMer – www.franceagrimer.fr

EU DG Agri -- ec.europa.eu/agriculture/index_fr.htm, 

Commodity 3 -- http://www.commodity3.com/

Newedge Group -- www.newedge.com,

The Jacobsen Report -- https://www.thejacobsen.com

MSI Ceres Peru -- http://www.msiceres.com,

International Brokers Group S.A.C, Peru.

 

And many, many, many more

 

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2014 Wayne S. Bacon