Weekly report Dec 07, 2014

Hammersmith Trade Services

A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   December 07, 2014

 

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

13+220 Quartier La Galine, D-99, Mas Martin, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

Sorry that I am a day late this week but I was travelling on Saturday and was not able to prepare the weekly report.

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

Corn prices finished the week quietly while soybeans closed strongly, as seems to be the recent pattern, soymeal to was up on Friday but overall not much on the week and, other than a strong week for US soft red winter wheat, wheat prices were reasonably calm for a change.

 

We will see the last USDA WASDE report of the year next week but no one is expecting anything much exciting to happen in this report. So do expect the USDA to increase corn exports for 2015 and that could keep corn prices steady to higher but there will be no new yield forecasts before the January report. It is interesting to note, that on the corn futures side of things, more and more experts are getting a tad bullish – not overly bullish but at least not bearish anymore. Some see room for both cash and futures prices to move up by USD 10 m/t from current levels. Of course, this would happen in the coming weeks, not overnight.  

 

The private sector forecaster, Informa, did lower their estimates of the 2015 Brazil and Argentina corn crops but the changes were minimal and not enough to get anyone excited.

 

Soybean prices moved higher pushed mainly by new export sales and strong exports for the week. With the US being the only current export supplier, every new export sale or good export week just tightens the US market more. Yes we are all going to hit the point when the business swings over to South America but there is still a good amount of time where the market is US and prices can stay as strong as they like, as long as the demand continues.

 

However, on the longer term bearish side, everything currently looks quite good in both Brazil and Argentina with the crops just growing along and enjoying the weather. One day we will hit the point when all, or most, of the soybean business will shift to South America but not yet. Soybean and soymeal prices can easily move plus/minus USD 10 m/t on the day but for now it does not look like there is a good reason to call for a major move lower in soy prices.

 

As an added bit of news, there was quite a jump in Argentina sorghum prices this week as the market anticipates a major increase in exports due to the approval of Argentina sorghum by China. China has imported just over 5 million m/t of USA sorghum from January to October and Argentina exporters would love to get a decent chunk of that business. However, with Argentina sorghum being a high tannin strain, its use in feed formulations is much more restricted than for USA sorghum, but still, they should take a piece of the business in 2015.

 

USA crop condition report – November 24, 2014 – all in percentages – NO UPDATED USA REPORT

France crop condition as of December 03, 2014

 

	Very poor	Poor	Fair	Good to excellent	Harvested %
USA crop:
Corn					94
Soybeans					95
Sorghum					96
Spring Wheat					100
Winter Wheat	1	5	34	60	Planted 100%
French crop:	Very poor	Poor	Fair	Good to excellent
Corn	0	1	9	90	100
Wheat - soft		1	6	93	Planted 99%
Wheat – hard		1	8	91	Planted 90%
Barley - winter			7	93	Planted 100%

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$18.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch)	$29/30.00		x
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$32/33.00	Up $1.00	x
US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch)	$35/36.00		x
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$33/34.00	Up $1.00	x
US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch)	$34/35.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$34/35.00	Up $1.00	x
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$49/50.00		x
US Gulf Yemen 35/45.000	$48/49.00		x
US Gulf South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$37/38.00		x
US Gulf Japan: Panamax(10,000 disch)	$46/47.00	up $1.00	x
US Gulf China: Panamax(8,000 disch)	$45/46.00	up $1.00	x
US PNW Asia: 35/45,000 m/t	$35/36.00		x
US PNW Japan: 50,000+ m/t(10,000 disch)	$31/32.00		x
US PNW China: 50,000+ m/t(8,000 d1sch)	$30/31.00		x
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$37/38.00	Up $2.00	x
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$50/51.00		x
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$24/25.00		x
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$25/26.00		x
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch)	$30/31.00		x
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$38/39.00		x
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$25/26.00		x
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$45/46.00		x
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$35/36.00		x
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$32/33.00		x
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$31/32.00		x
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$32/33.00		x
Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$31/32.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t	$33/34.00		x
Argentina to Saudi Arabia	$41.00		x
Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$29/30.00		x
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$31/32.00		x
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$37/38.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t	$28/29.00		x
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$33/34.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$24/25.00		x
Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t	$26/27.00		x
Brazil to Saudi Arabia	$41/42.00		x
Brazil to Europe	$26/27.00		x
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$33/34.00	Down $1.00	x
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$21/22.00		x
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$20/21.00		x
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$15/16.00		x
Black Sea to East Med: coaster	$45/46.00		x
Black Sea to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t	$46/47.00		x
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$13/14.00		x
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$24/25.00		x
Black Sea to China	$35/37.00		x
Baltic Dry Index	982	Down 171	x
Baltic Capesize Index	1282	Down 869	x
Baltic Panamax Index	1088	Down 32	x
Baltic Supramax Index	971	Down 15	x
Baltic Handisize Index	499	Up 8	x

*** see sources note

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR DEC 2014/FEB 2015 UNLESS STATED OTHER WISE

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 279>>272	X
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 289/293	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 243/247	x
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 252/263	x
Wheat, Romania	USD 258/264	x
Wheat, soft milling #1, France, Rouen	USD 235/237	X
Wheat, soft milling #2, France, Rouen	USD 229/231	x
Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver	USD 250/260	x
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 215/220	x
Wheat Bran, Black Sea	USD 200/210	x
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 222/224	x
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver	USD 192/201	x
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 215/222	x
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 245/250	x
Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 190>>187	x
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 210>>206	x
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 193/197	x
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 189/193	x
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 180/186	x
Corn, FOB France	USD 193/196	x
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 187/190	x
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD  253/255	x
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD  185/195	x
Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA	USD 485/490	X
Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 520/525	X
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 475>>460	X
Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina	USD 449/455	X
Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 465>>455	X
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 425/430	X
Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB	USD 640/650	x
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 415/425	X
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 385>>375	X
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 430>>425	X
Soybeans, Rotterdam	USD 450>>435	X
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 405/415	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD   730/735 m/t	X
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD   170/175 m/t	X
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD   212/216 m/t	X
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia	USD   254/258 m/t	x

*** see sources note

 

 

The market was very active this week for corn by-products with DDGS prices jumping and jiving. Some say prices were up by USD 20 m/t while other say only USD 5 to 10 m/t higher – but no matter what it seems that DDGS prices are up. Corn prices didn't do anything to cause DDGS to increase in price but some experts feel that it is just a jump in demand that is pushing prices higher. Also, with an eye on the December holidays, US domestic users want to be sure of their supply into 2015.

 

Corn gluten meal prices were not as strong as I had been expecting (thinking of demand swinging over from fishmeal) but one exporter was telling me that it mattered little to him where the prices are as he is fully booked through February 2015 and that it is next to impossible to find any way to load any CGM before March of next year. Both bulk loading and container loadings seem to be all full up for quite a few weeks.

 

As usual, there is very little exciting to say about corn gluten feed – year to date October exports are getting up to close to 900,000 m/t and it still seems like a market with little excitement. The business just goes on and on with the same three major importing countries, Ireland, Israel and Turkey, doing 70% on the export business.

 

USDA – US exports of corn by-products – Jan/Oct 2014 – major destinations, in m/t

 

	Corn gluten feed	Corn gluten meal	Distillers Dried Grains – DDGS
Canada	11,200	54,700	327,000
Chile		131,700
China			4,237,200
Colombia	22,000	59,500	128,000
Costa Rica			59,800
Egypt	15,800	136,900	152,600
El Salvador		10,000	51,100
Germany	30,300
Guatemala		10,400	48,400
Indonesia		137,100	250,700
Ireland	329,900	15,900	228,400
Israel	192,300	14,500	127,900
Japan		78,100	416,900
Malaysia		29,800	41,100
Mexico	14,600	46,800	1,289,700
Morocco	28,500		71,800
New Zealand			72,000
Philippines			96,900
Portugal	16,800
South Korea	28,300	5,000	534,900
Spain	18,100		84,200
Taiwan		14,900	212,300
Thailand		29,000	285,300
Turkey	119,800	9,000	385,400
UK	23,000		113,300
Vietnam		13,700	551,200

USDA GATS STATS

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein    Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein	USD 460/480 m/t CNF Asia  USD 630/640 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein	USD 420/430 m/t CNF Asia
European MBM 45 protein    European MBM 50 protein    European Feathermeal, 75 protein    European poultry meal, pet food grd	USD 375/385 m/t CNF Asia  USD 415/430 m/t CNF Asia  USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia  USD 1050/10700 m/t CNF Asia	X X X x
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 580/590 m/t CNF Asia  USD 620/630 m/t CNF Asia  USD 870/880 m/t CNF Asia  USD 1100/1150 m/t CNF Asia	X X X x
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 580/600 m/t CNF Asia  USD 800/820 m/t CNF Asia  USD 630/650 m/t CNF Asia  USD 1120/1170 m/t CNF Asia	X X X x

*** see sources note

 

 

The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk

 

Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein	USD 465/475 m/t
Feathermeal  80 protein USA	USD 670/700 m/t
Poultry meal  57 protein, Eastern USA	USD 500/520 m/t
Poultry meal, Pet Food grade, 64 pro	USD 820/840 m/t

*** see sources note

 

Animal protein prices in Asia were steady to higher last week as strong demand continued to force the market prices. Poultry meal in particular is seeing very good demand as it is about the closest replacement for fishmeal that buyers can find and at about 50% of the cost of fishmeal then it is attracting a good chunk of interest. The problem with poultry meal is that there is not nearly enough available to cover the shortfall in the fishmeal supplies, so prices should remain strong.

 

Meat and bone meal Asia prices were also reported to be stronger but that has not as yet been seen from all origins but it would make sense that buyers will snap up as much animal protein as possible to avoid running out of supply.

 

Domestic prices in the USA were up and down depending on who you talked to and where their facilities are located but looks like MBM and feathermeal are steady while poultry meal prices are running higher, also due to the fishmeal situation. With much of the next few weeks being holidays, the experts seem to feel that demand for spot shipments could keep USA prices firm – they we will see what happens in January.

 

USDA – US exports of animal proteins – Jan/Oct 2014 – major destinations, in m/t

 

	Meat and bone  meal Incl pork and poultry meal	Feathermeal
Bangladesh	1,500
Canada	39,800	12,900
Chile		43,500
China	32,200
Columbia	1,500
Ecuador	5,900
Guatemala	7,200
Holland	5,600
Indonesia	59,600	90,400
Malaysia	4,000
Mexico	15,500
Philippines	8,100
Thailand	5,000

USDA GATS STATS

 

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Everyone in Peru seems very resigned to the fact that there will be no Dec/Jan fishing quota this year as time is slipping by with no word from the government. No official report has been issued on the state of the bio-mass so we are all living with rumors, stories and wild inventions.

 

The stocks in Peru are now reported to be down to about 25,000 m/t with probably nothing more for quite a few weeks (until at least April) --- this is certainly going to make Peru fishmeal business very difficult and make my weekly report very boring. I guess that I need to start looking at other origins rather than just Peru.

 

In figures published this week (that I received thanks to MSI Ceres, Peru), the fishmeal imports by China up to the end of October total 952.000 m/t with Peru still at just over 51% but for October Peru drops to only 18.6% while the USA jumps to just under 37%, compared to just 8.8% for the year to date.

 

There was an interesting note from Norway this week that said that salmon feed is now 70% vegetable based up from only 10% in 1990. According to the article the major vegetable sources are from soy protein concentrate and rapeseed oil. While about one third of the animal sources come from fishoil, the balance is all fishmeal and krill meal. The article also mentions that the between 2010 and 2013 the percentage of marine ingredients in salmon feed dropped by 15%, the largest drop in the 1990/2013 time period.

 

Also from Norway is the information that Norwegian fishmeal producers are trying to obtain the permission from China to re-enter the market after Norway fishmeal was banned from China in 2011 due to not meeting Chinese import requirements. It is expected that Chinese officials will inspect Norwegian fishmeal producing facilities in 2015 in order to consider import approval. 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72 protein	2,110
Danish fishmeal	64 protein	1,770
Peru fishmeal	64 protein	2,280
Chile fishmeal	65 protein	2,330
Iceland fishmeal	70 protein	2,190

@Commodity3

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port
65 protein	2100/2120 m/t
65/66 protein	2120/2140 m/t
67 protein standard steam	2150/2180 m/t
67 protein SD 150  TVN	2200/2210 m/t
67 protein SD 120 TVN	2350/2360 m/t
67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN	2380/2390 m/t
68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN	2400/2420 m/t
Fish oil, crude bulk	2500/2550
Fish oil, crude drums	2600/2650
Fish oil, flexi tank	2550/2600
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	3000/3100

*** see sources note

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

*** sources for information for the Weekly Report:

US Grains Council  --- www.grains.org, International Grains Council – www.igc.int

US Wheat -- www.uswheat.org , France Agrimer – www.franceagrimer.fr

EU DG Agri -- ec.europa.eu/agriculture/index_fr.htm,  Commodity 3 -- http://www.commodity3.com/

Newedge Group -- www.newedge.com, The Jacobsen Report -- https://www.thejacobsen.com

MSI Ceres Peru -- http://www.msiceres.com, International Brokers Group S.A.C, Peru.

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2014 Wayne S. Bacon