Hammersmith Trade Services
A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT December 13, 2014
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
13+220 Quartier La Galine, D-99, Mas Martin, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
With the Christmas and New Year holidays coming up shortly, my weekly report may become a tad more flexible. My wife and I are off to Italy next week for the Christmas period so I will probably not be as timely with the reports. Who knows, I may even miss a week.
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Corn and soybean prices were up again this week with corn futures prices even getting above the USD 4.00 bushel level which many experts seem to feel is a "magic" number which will start the trend for corn to higher prices – who knows, they could be correct or it may just be bumph.
The USDA WASDE report this week didn't have a major effect on prices as there were no big surprises of startling new facts – but then none had been expected. The December WASDE report has a history of being a non-event.
There were some comments in the market concerning China and its possible approval of MIR162 GM corn which could get US corn back into the China market and then there were some speculations that the Ukraine may not be able to totally fulfill on its corn sales to China – some say that up to one million m/t of corn may not be able to be shipped. The approval of MIR162 would be of real benefit to the US. No one knows how much corn China may import in 2015 but without approval of MIR162 the US would be out of the China corn market.
So, if you believe the experts, US corn prices should now be trending higher (as normally happens after the harvest).
Soybean and soymeal prices for the past few days have not been too exciting – although the futures market has been up and down by USD 15 m/t in a day. Soybean prices were a little higher on the week, both domestic and export, with good export demand still being seen.
The South American weather is still very good and there are no crop concerns at present. So not much reason for any price rallies going into the South American season. Of course, if you watch the futures and cash prices out next April/May you see that soymeal is USD 30 or so m/t lower in price once you get into April. Those who can will try to hold off on buying as long as they can hoping that the US prices drop down to something closer to the South American prices.
The closer we get to the South American soybean harvest the closer US and South American prices will get but, as usual, come April/May South America should be the origin of choice for most buyers.
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $17.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $49/50.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Yemen 35/45.000 | $48/49.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax(10,000 disch) | $44/45.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax(8,000 disch) | $43/44.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| US PNW Asia: 35/45,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: 50,000+ m/t(10,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US PNW China: 50,000+ m/t(8,000 d1sch) | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Up $3.00 | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $51/52.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $38/39.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $45/46.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $29/31.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $41.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $35/36.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $41/42.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Europe | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $19/21.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: coaster | $38/39.00 | Down $6.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t | $43/44.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $24/26.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to China | $34/36.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Baltic Dry Index | 863 | Down 119 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 763 | Down 519 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1001 | Down 87 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 950 | Down 21 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 493 | Down 6 | x |
*** see sources note
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR JAN 2015/MARCH 2015 UNLESS STATED OTHER WISE
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 286>>278 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 286/289 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 245/250 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 259/263 | X |
| Wheat, Romania | USD 256/262 | x |
| Wheat, soft milling #1, France, Rouen | USD 240/242 | X |
| Wheat, soft milling #2, France, Rouen | USD 235/237 | X |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver | USD 247/254 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 215/220 | X |
| Wheat Bran, Black Sea | USD 170/180 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 222/226 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 195/204 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 225/230 | X |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 250/255 | X |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 195>>191 | X |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 206>>202 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 195/201 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 190/194 | X |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 182/187 | X |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 194/199 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 187/192 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 260/265 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 190/195 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 495/505 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 535/555 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 480/485 | x |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 450/465 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 465/470 | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 445/460 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB | USD 650/660 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 425/435 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 395>>385 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 440>>435 | X |
| Soybeans, Rotterdam | USD 460>>445 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 415/425 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 750/760 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 190/195 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 220/225 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia | USD 264/269 m/t | X |
*** see sources note
Depending on which trade report you read this week DDGS prices are up by USD 10 m/t to as much as USD 20 m/t. Similar price increases are seen in both corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed. The rally in corn prices last week was much of the cause but so was good export demand. Of course for DDGS there is rumor that the China import problem will be solved shortly which will be great for DDGS exports. And then with DDGS there is the new problem in Turkey where the government is tightening up on the GMO import rules and has refused entry for three vessels of DDGS in recent weeks. The DDGS problem is not as serious as the China ban had been but shippers are still having to try to find homes for DDGS afloat to Turkey and to also for the goods still on the vessels in Turkish ports. There are some document complications with the goods in Turkey as they are under USDA GSM-102 financing and also some new buyer problems as the goods are 2/3 golden and 1/3 dark DDGS and many buyers only want the golden.
For both CGM and CGF, the move by corn futures prices to just over USD 4.00 bushel, a psychological price level, has tended to push prices up as most buyers and sellers now feel that the corn market may have turned and will now move higher. Any thoughts of higher prices brings the buyers out and then this does push up prices. For CGM there is still the increased demand due to the short supply of fishmeal and this will continue until at least April/May 2015.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein | USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 650/670 m/t CNF Asia | X x |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 435/445 m/t CNF Asia | X |
| European MBM 45 protein European MBM 50 protein European Feathermeal, 75 protein European poultry meal, pet food grd | USD 385/405 m/t CNF Asia USD 425/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia USD 1050/10700 m/t CNF Asia | x x x x |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 580/590 m/t CNF Asia USD 640/650 m/t CNF Asia USD 880/890 m/t CNF Asia USD 1120/1160 m/t CNF Asia | x x x x |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 600/610 m/t CNF Asia USD 760/780 m/t CNF Asia USD 630/650 m/t CNF Asia USD 1150/1200 m/t CNF Asia | x x x x |
*** see sources note
The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk
| Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein | USD 465/475 m/t |
| Feathermeal 80 protein USA | USD 670/700 m/t |
| Poultry meal 57 protein, Eastern USA | USD 480/510 m/t |
| Poultry meal, Pet Food grade, 64 pro | USD 820/840 m/t |
*** see sources note
MBM prices in Asia were higher this week as demand is very good – not that there is anything wrong with supply, just that the demand levels (pushed a bit by the fishmeal shortage) just get stronger every week. Some experts feel that the demand will slack off in January but this is hard to forecast as the fishmeal shortage is going to exist well into 2015. As buyers know, the fishmeal effect is more in poultry meal than MBM but once the market starts to move higher in one area it tends to pull all prices up.
In the USA domestic market, MBM price were up in most areas but feathermeal was harder to follow with some areas saying prices were up while other said they were down. It is expected that the demand for feathermeal in the US should fall off a little as most of the winter feed block production has been completed which could easily lead to lower prices in coming weeks. However, it doesn't look like poultry meal prices will be moving lower as both domestic and export demand is strong, especially for pet food grade. So, other than feathermeal, prices seem to be a little bullish.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The IMARPE report in Peru is very negative on the anchovy situation with reduced fish stocks and a high level of juvenile fish (84% juvenile) – IMARPE has recommended that there be no fishing in the northern and central fishing areas until later in the year. While the government has not made any official announcement as yet, everyone is assuming that there will be no December/January fishing season this year – looks like nothing before April/May 2015.
Buyers have moved to all other markets for their fishmeal needs or to other protein sources where they can substitute for fishmeal. There is very little fishmeal left in Peru but due to the very high prices in Peru most buyers are avoiding the market there.
It is interesting to note that everyone is now expecting a very good fishing season in April as the biomass will benefit greatly from the extra few months with no fishing, which is really what the government of Peru wants. However there are also some nay-sayers who feel that the biomass may not recover for the next season and that we may see a low quota in April or perhaps just low landings once fishing starts. Needless to say we need to wait until the next fishing season to get the answer.
There was an interesting story about Iceland in the news this week – it mentions how Iceland has been a supplier of fish to Russia but that with the current sanctions and the ruble problems that business is mostly gone and Iceland is considering increasing fishmeal production to use the available fish supplies. With the very high price of fishmeal at present, an increase in Icelandic fishmeal production could just be what will get Iceland over the Russia problem – it is probably a short term problem.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72 protein | 2,110 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,780 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64 protein | 2,300 |
| Chile fishmeal | 65 protein | 2,350 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70 protein | 2,130 |
@Commodity3
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port |
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| 65 protein | 2100/2120 m/t |
| 65/66 protein | 2120/2140 m/t |
| 67 protein standard steam | 2150/2180 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 2200/2210 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 2350/2360 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 2380/2390 m/t |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 2400/2420 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2500/2550 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2600/2650 |
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2550/2600 |
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 3000/3100 |
*** see sources note
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
*** sources for information for the Weekly Report:
US Grains Council --- www.grains.org, International Grains Council – www.igc.int
US Wheat -- www.uswheat.org , France Agrimer – www.franceagrimer.fr
EU DG Agri -- ec.europa.eu/agriculture/index_fr.htm, Commodity 3 -- http://www.commodity3.com/
Newedge Group -- www.newedge.com, The Jacobsen Report -- https://www.thejacobsen.com
MSI Ceres Peru -- http://www.msiceres.com, International Brokers Group S.A.C, Peru.
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2014 Wayne S. Bacon
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