Hammersmith Trade Services
A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT June 06, 2015
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Again this week it was wheat that had all the market excited and all of the wheat action was related to weather in the USA, Canada, Australia, parts of Europe and Russia. At least the weather looked to be improving in the US so the harvest of winter wheat can get rolling along.
Corn prices did not increase all that much this week but they were up about USD 4 to 5 at the end of the week. There has been some weather concern with US corn, the problem being that summer weather seems to have arrived but the corn crop in some areas could still need a little bit more cooler and wetter spring weather. The corn plantings are all but completed except in some areas where there was a tad too much rain for planning. So far, the very early look at the corn crop looks good with the emerged corn levels being well above the 5 year average but everything depends on the weather in the coming week – farmers are hoping for decent sunshine, some beneficial rains and moderate temperatures to allow the crop to get a good hold on things.
The way the situation is with corn at present there seems to be little reason for prices to move higher but, as we all know, the weather can change and a price rally can happen.
Soybeans were up a little on the week, as there were concerns that heavy rains in parts of the US was delaying the soybean plantings and delays could cause lower yields – but really too early to know for sure. Farmers are hoping for a little more sunshine so they can get back to planting. There were some stories of heavy rains causing flooding and some areas needing to replant soybeans because of the floods. So far the soybean plantings, as reported by the USDA, were right on the five year average so there is little reason for concern as yet.
There was also some concern in the soybean market due to the late arrival of the monsoon in India and the effect that this might have on their soybean crop.
If the rains in the USA continue and further soybean planting delays are seen then we could have higher prices in the near term.
Also, for corn, beans and wheat – we do have the latest WASDE report coming out this week, perhaps there will be some surprises there.
USDA – USA Crop Progress Report – June 01, 2015
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| Planted June 2015 Report | Planted 2010-2014 Average |
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| Corn | 95% | 94% |
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| Sorghum | 43% | 55% |
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| Spring Wheat | 100% | 91% |
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| Barley | 100% | 90% |
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| Soybeans | 71% | 70% |
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| Crop condition | Excellent % | Good % | Fair % | Poor % | Very Poor % | |
| Winter wheat | 8 | 36 | 36 | 14 | 6 | |
| Spring wheat | 9 | 62 | 25 | 3 | 1 | |
| Barley | 14 | 60 | 22 | 3 | 1 | |
| Corn | 12 | 62 | 23 | 3 |
| |
@USDA
France AgriMer – crop condition report – June 01, 2015
| Winter crops | Very Good % | Good % | Average % | Bad % | Very Bad % | |
| Soft wheat | 33 | 56 | 9 | 1 |
| |
| Hard wheat | 22 | 61 | 15 | 2 |
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| Barley | 29 | 59 | 10 | 2 |
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| Barley spring | 20 | 71 | 9 |
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| Corn | 11 | 75 | 13 | 1 |
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@France AgriMer
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $20/21.00 | steady | x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $40/41.00 | steady | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $50/51.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $50/51.00 | Steady | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $34/35.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $25/25.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Europe | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Australia to China: 40-50,000 m/t | $8.50/9.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-50,000 m/t | $9.00/9.50 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-50,000 m/t | $12/13.00 | Steady | x |
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| Ukraine to China | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady |
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| Ukraine to East Med: coaster | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $10/11.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t | $14/15.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $18/19.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 610 | Up 21 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 865 | Up 55 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 596 | Up 72 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 656 | Up 9 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 332 | Up 1 | x |
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| Bunkerworld fuel index | 858 | Down 7 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR June 2015/August 2015 UNLESS STATED OTHER WISE
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 216/221 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 241/244 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 182/186 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 187/191 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 196/199 | x |
| Wheat, soft milling #1, France, Rouen | USD 196/198 | x |
| Wheat, soft milling #2, France, Rouen | USD 190/193 | x |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver | USD 225/235 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 175/180 | x |
| Wheat Bran, Black Sea | USD no prices | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 198/201 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 180/185 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 174/178 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 235/240 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 173>>169 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 179/181 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 167/172 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 155/159 Aug/Sep | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 165/171 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 166/176 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 166/171 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 252>>>239 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 165/170 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 391/395 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD no prices | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 377/382 | x |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 348/352 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 363/368 | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 330/335 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FAQ | USD 560/570 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 376/384 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 358/362 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 362/366 | x |
| Soybeans, Rotterdam | USD 402/406 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 415/425 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 685/690 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 145/148 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 225>>218 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia | USD 284>>278 m/t | x |
DDGS prices were quite a bit lower this week as export buyers seem to be much more interested in shipments late in 2015 – at least after August shipment. Perhaps all the talk about sellers being sold out has moved buyers out a few weeks. Of course there is a premium of up to USD 10 m/t to buy June/July shipment.
The USDA Co-products Production Report that came out last week showed DDGS production for April down from March by close to 7% to 1.7 million m/t – corn gluten feed production was at 314,000 m/t and corn gluten meal at 89,000 m/t, both also down from March production levels. 90% of the corn processed in April was for alcohol (99% ethanol) production with DDGS as a by-product. About 10% was for wet milling with corn gluten feed and corn gluten meal as by-products.
The export prices for corn gluten feed and corn gluten meal did not change on the week, although the domestic US price for corn gluten meal was a little lower in most areas, down by USD 5 m/t overall, so perhaps there will be a little weakness in CGM export prices next week.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein | USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 600/610 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 450/460 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 470/485 m/t CNF Asia USD 520/535 m/t CNF Asia USD 630/650 m/t CNF Asia USD 850/870 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 510/520 m/t CNF Asia USD 550/580 m/t CNF Asia USD 600/630 m/t CNF Asia USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia |
Meat and bone meal export prices into Asia were a little softer this week – at least for US product – supply seems to be outpacing demand and the continuing slide on vegetable protein prices certainly does not help. Australia and New Zealand prices don't seem to have changed this week but the trade feels that buyers' interest is well below the levels that OZ exporters were hoping for. There had been some expectation in the market that Australian production would slack off but this has not happened as yet, so perhaps prices will continue to slip lower.
In the USA, both the domestic and export prices seem to want to continue lower much of this also due to the slide in vegetable protein prices. Feathermeal and pet grade poultry meal both were quite weak and this is due to very high poultry slaughter in recent days. The Jacobsen report was saying that there are increased levels of dark poultry meat going to rendering which is adding to the available poultry meal supply.
Today there seems to be little or no reason to expect that animal protein prices will be moving higher.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing in Peru has faced a good assortment of mini-bans so the daily catch levels in the Northern Area have fallen off. The total catch up to late this week was at just over 2.24 million m/t which leaves about 340,000 m/t still to catch – not an impossible target. In the south the total catch is at 130,000 m/t leaving 245,000 m/t still to land. Total fishmeal production so far is estimated at about 575,000 m/t.
According to trade reports from Peru, the market prices continues to soften with Super Prime business to China said to be seen as low as USD 1,730 m/t. There was not a great deal of sales activity reported for the past week as only China seemed to be in the market and then not for any big chunks of business. It is interesting that the market is very soft and that there are still no big buyers jumping in – this would seem to imply that prices have some room to go lower in order to get major buyers interested.
The latest trade information from Peru shows just under 400,000 m/t of unsold fishmeal available so stocks look very good – now what we need are some sales. The MSICeres report from Peru this week was saying that Chinese buyers are about the only game in town but that no one is buying big. Who knows, perhaps buying as you need rather than on spec is the new way for Chinese buyers?
To finish off for this week, it looks like prices will have to move lower to keep Peru (and Chile) business rolling along.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72 protein | 1,540 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,570 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,650 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67 protein | 1,700 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70 protein | 1,500 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65 protein | 1450/1500 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1500/1550 m/t |
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| 67 protein standard steam | 1550/1600 m/t | 1550/1600 |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1600/1650 m/t | 1600/1650 |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1650/1700 m/t | 1650/1700 |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1700/1730 m/t | 1700/1750 |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1740/1770 m/t | 1770/1820 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2200/2250 | 1900/2000 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2300/2350 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2250/2300 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2700/2750 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon
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