Hammersmith Trade Services
a division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT June 13, 2015
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
On the 18th of June, which just happens to be the first day of Ramadan, my wife and I are off to California to be tourists for about three weeks. I will do my best to keep issuing weekly reports but if I am overwhelmed by the charms of St Louis Obispo or the rugged coast at Carmel or get stuck in Alcatraz then a report may just be missed that week.
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
This week in the grain business was much the opposite of previous weeks as most everything moved lower this week – except perhaps soymeal. The experts all seemed to be saying that the USDA WASDE report had little or no effect on market prices but that is never entirely true. Wheat was certainly moving a little lower on the USDA's higher crop estimates and the weakness in new crop soybeans does seem to be very much report based.
Cash and futures corn prices were only down by very little on the week – perhaps no more than USD 3 or 4 m/t. There is quite a bit of comment that the USDA Acreage report on the 30th could show lower than expected corn acres which would be quite a positive influence on prices and once prices moved a little higher and all those futures speculators with short positions were scared then we could see a decent rally for corn – but only if the USDA comes out with a bullish acreage report.
A few other factors for corn – lots of rain in some areas of the USA which is good news for corn as it is almost all planted, higher forecasted corn crop in Brazil up by another 2% or 1.5 million m/t, strong farmer selling in the US – all of these are quite bearish factors so what can the acreage report do to change the trend.
New crop soybeans and soymeal were down on the week as old crop supplies moved higher, as seems to happen every year now – there are just never enough beans to go around as we get to the end of the year, no matter what all the experts and reports say.
There is some comment in the trade on whether the current rain is good or bad for the soybeans – some say that it is too heavy and will cause some soybeans to be replanted but, at present, this does not seem to be too much of a problem – but there are some experts who are wringing their hands and calling for higher prices due to lost crops.
As happened with corn, the Brail government increased their forecast of soybeans by 1 million m/t up to 96 million m/t. There certainly doesn't look to be any shortage of soybeans in coming months.
There are just not all that many factors in the new crop soybean market that look to push prices higher in the near term – perhaps too much rain or too few acres, but it will take a little time to know.
USDA – USA Crop Progress Report – June 07, 2015
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| Planted June 2015 Report | Planted 2010-2014 Average |
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| Sorghum | 82% | 85% |
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| Soybeans | 79% | 81% |
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| Crop condition | Excellent % | Good % | Fair % | Poor % | Very Poor % | |
| Winter wheat | 8 | 35 | 37 | 14 | 6 | |
| Spring wheat | 10 | 59 | 26 | 4 | 1 | |
| Barley | 14 | 62 | 22 | 2 |
| |
| Corn | 13 | 61 | 22 | 3 | 1 | |
| Soybeans | 11 | 58 | 26 | 4 | 1 | |
@USDA
France AgriMer – crop condition report – June 06, 2015
| Winter crops | Very Good % | Good % | Average % | Bad % | Very Bad % | |
| Soft wheat | 33 | 56 | 9 | 1 |
| |
| Hard wheat | 22 | 61 | 15 | 2 |
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| Barley | 29 | 59 | 10 | 2 |
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| Barley spring | 20 | 71 | 9 |
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| Corn | 11 | 75 | 13 | 1 |
| |
@France AgriMer
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $14/14.50 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $40/41.00 | steady | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $50/51.00 | Steady | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $51/52.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $34/35.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Europe | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $31/32.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Australia to China: 40-50,000 m/t | $9.00/9.50 | Up $0.50 | x |
| Australia to Japan: 40-50,000 m/t | $9.50/10.00 | Up $0.50 | x |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-50,000 m/t | $12/13.00 | Steady | x |
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| Ukraine to China | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster | $38/39.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $10/11.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t | $14/15.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $18/19.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 642 | Up 32 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 820 | Down 45 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 719 | Up 123 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 678 | Up 22 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 338 | Up 6 | x |
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| Bunkerworld fuel index | 872 | Up 14 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR June 2015/August 2015 UNLESS STATED OTHER WISE
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 211/216 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 236/239 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 182/186 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 190/196 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 196/199 | x |
| Wheat, soft milling #1, France, Rouen | USD 201/203 | x |
| Wheat, soft milling #2, France, Rouen | USD 196/199 | x |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver | USD 220/225 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 176/182 | x |
| Wheat Bran, Black Sea | USD no prices |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 194/197 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 175/180 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 181/184 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 220/230 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 169>>166 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 174/176 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 164/171 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 155/159 Aug/Sep | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 169/172 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 167/180 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 165/172 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 249>>236 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 169/174 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 400/405 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD no prices | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 385/392 | x |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 359/362 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 386/390 | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 345/351 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FAQ | USD 570/580 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 373/378 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 355/359 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 359/364 | x |
| Soybeans, Rotterdam | USD 396/400 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 410/415 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 685/690 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 142/145 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 200/206 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia | USD 255/261 m/t | x |
Looking at the domestic US DDGS prices all that we can see are lower prices levels. Price drops in the US varied from a low of only USD 5 m/t up to a more wide spread USD 15 m/t. The serious drop in DDGS prices was also seen in the export market as word spread about China moving some shipments to later positions which will create quite a jump in the nearby supply. Buyers who can take advantage of the situation should be able to book DDGS for July/August shipment at very attractive price levels.
However, there was the comment in the trade this week that the USDA Acreage report at the end of June may cause a rally in prices for corn and this could lift DDGS price back up once again. On the other hand, with China being the largest export buyer, 45% of all DDGS exports - 1.3 million m/t, what China does will still have a major effect on DDGS prices.\
USA corn gluten meal prices in the domestic market were down by about USD 10 m/t this week but the same drop was not seen in the export market as good demand has been able to keep export CGM prices quite firm. Corn gluten feed prices in the interior of the US were also a little lower but like CGM this has not been seen as yet in the export market.
It looks like the current trend is for lower prices for all corn by-products.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein | USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 600/610 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 450/460 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 470/485 m/t CNF Asia USD 520/535 m/t CNF Asia USD 630/650 m/t CNF Asia USD 850/870 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 510/530 m/t CNF Asia USD 550/580 m/t CNF Asia USD 600/630 m/t CNF Asia USD 730/770 m/t CNF Asia |
The animal protein market seems to have hit quite a slowdown in demand in recent weeks – some of this is due to a drop in demand in Asia due to the Ramadan period that begins next week and the fact that import buyers in Asia are well stocked for the month of Ramadan and a little beyond – so, on the demand side, things are weak. The supply side is tightening a little as slaughter and production levels drop off in Australia and New Zealand but with only a few buyers around the supply side is of less importance for now.
Of course there is also the continued weakness in vegetable proteins and with everyone looking for lower veg protein prices over the next few weeks then animal protein prices will also probably have to slip a little lower in order to keep some business going.
There does not seem to be much reason these days for prices to move higher --- there is just too much of everything available and more to come later in 2015.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Well, the North of Peru is getting closer and closer to reaching the full quota. The latest numbers that I have report 2.33 million m/t of fish landed leaving only about 250,000 m/t to go. Based on the recent catch levels it will take another 20 days to fill the quota.
The levels of unsold fishmeal in Peru are reported to be at about 350,000 m/t which would mean that around 230,000 m/t of current production has been booked, certainly not an overwhelming amount of business booked so far.
According to reports from Peru, buyers from China are looking for even lower prices before making any serious commitments. Prices for fishmeal have dropped by about USD 300 m/t in quite a short period of time but the serious buyers are expecting even further drops. It is also reported that China will have a shorter aquaculture season this year which could result in lower import demand from China. If that is the case, with China being the main buyer, then there could be quite a bit of room for lower prices.
The January to May Peru export numbers show that China is still 77% of Peru's fishmeal exports, so it is really a one country market for Peruvian fishmeal these days. The total Peruvian exports reported up to the end of May stand at 126,000 m/t – not bad considering how little fishmeal was available from Peru.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72 protein | 1,535 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,565 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,595 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67 protein | 1,655 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70 protein | 1,460 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65 protein | 1400/1420 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1430/1450 m/t |
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| 67 protein standard steam | 1460/1480 m/t |
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| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1530/1550 m/t | 1530/1550 |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1580/1600 m/t | 1580/1600 |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1640/1660 m/t | 1640/1660 |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1680/1700 m/t | 1700/1720 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1900/1950 | 1700/1800 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2000/2050 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2050/2100 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2500/2550 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon
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