Weekly Report -- July 18, 2015

 

Hammersmith Trade Services

A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   July 18, 2015

 

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

It was a down week this week for most US grains: corn was down by USD 5 to 7 with soybeans down by a little more at USD 6 to 8, now crop soymeal didn't really change but old crop was up by at least USD 5 m/t. US wheat prices were also down with soft red winter down by USD 7 m/t and hard red winter down by as much as USD 10 m/t.  

 

On the corn side of things, most everyone had been expecting corn prices to rally higher this week but that didn't happen as world corn crops look quite good – except perhaps in France where the very high heat may reduce the yields. In the US there doesn't look to be any reason to worry about corn at present – the weather has been quite co-operative and the US corn crop seems to be faring quite well.

 

Strategie Grain in Europe dropped their corn crop forecast by about 1% but with the size of the overall corn crop this small drop didn't seem to have any effect on prices. The reduced their EU wheat crop estimate too but by only 0.5%.

 

US corn is just getting well into the pollination stage so the weather in the next couple of weeks is very important to the crop --- any weather problems are bound to scare the market and push corn prices higher.

 

With soybeans, we see that the limited supplies of old crop soybeans are pushing nearby prices higher and it is said are attracting soybean shipments from South America.

 

The weather for soybeans is even better than for corn, although it is the same weather, as soybeans are not as vulnerable to hot, dry weather as corn in.

 

There doesn't seem to be any reason, at present, to expect soybean prices to move any higher – there are just too many around and with the good US weather there will be even more later in the year.

 

For now, it would seem that steady to lower is the expected direction for soybeans, at least for new crop beans – old crop beans will probably continue to move higher as there are few available.      

 

 

 

USDA – USA Crop Progress Report – July 14, 2015

 

Crop condition		Excellent %	Good %	Fair %	Poor %	Very Poor %
Spring wheat	15		56	23	5	1
Barley	18		54	22	5	1
Corn	15		54	22	7	2
Sorghum	10		57	27	4	2
Soybeans	12		50	27	8	3

@USDA

 

France AgriMer – crop condition report – July 14, 2015

 

Winter crops		Very Good %	Good %	Average %	Bad %	Very Bad %
Soft wheat	19		56	19	6	1
Hard wheat	18		59	18	4	1
Barley	30		56	11	2
Barley spring	9		56	25	8	2
Corn	10		57	22	9	2

@France AgriMer

  

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$17/17.50	Up $2.00	x
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Up $2.00	X
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$27/28.00	Up $2.00	x
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Up $2.00	x
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$28/29.00	Up $2.00	x
US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch)	$33/34.00	Up $2.00	X
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$52/53.00	Up $2.00	X
US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch)	$34/35.00	Up $2.00	X
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$36/37.00	Up $1.00	X
US Gulf China: Panamax	$35/36.00	Up $1.00	x
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$22/23.00	Up $1.00	X
US PNW China: Panamax	$21/22.00	Up $1.00	x
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$42/43.00	Up $1.00	x
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$54/55.00	Up $2.00	x
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Up $3.00	x
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Up $1.00	x
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch)	$29/30.00	Up $3.00	x
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Up $3.00	x
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$41/42.00	Up $1.00	x
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$40/41.00	Up $3.00	x
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$55/56.00	Up $3.00	x
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$32/33.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$35/36.00	Up $2.00	x
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t	$36/37.00	Up $2.00	x
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$31/32.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Saudi Arabia	$39/40.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$30/31.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$27/28.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t	$32/33.00	Up $1.00	x
Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t	$26/27.00	Up $2.00	x
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$27/28.00	Up $1.00	x
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$28/29.00	Up $1.00	x
Brazil to Europe	$24/25.00	Up $2.00	x
Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t	$25/26.00	Up $2.00	x
Brazil to Saudi Arabia	$35/36.00	Up $3.00	x
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$22/23.00	Up $2.00	x
Australia to China: 40-50,000 m/t	$9.00/9.50	Steady	X
Australia to Japan: 40-50,000 m/t	$9.50/10.00	Steady	X
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-50,000 m/t	$14/15.00	Up $1.00	x
Ukraine to China	$32/33.00	Up $1.00	x
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$18/19.00	Up $2.00	x
Ukraine to East Med: coaster	$38/39.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$13/14.00	Up $1.00	X
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t	$38/39.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t	$39/40.00	Up $1.00	X
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$30/31.00	Up $1.00	x
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t	$16/17.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$21/22.00	Up $1.00	x
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Up $1.00	x
Baltic Dry Index	1048	Up 174	x
Baltic Capesize Index	1318	Up 394	x
Baltic Panamax Index	1052	Up 110	x
Baltic Supramax Index	767	Up 79	x
Baltic Handisize Index	384	Up 43	x
Bunkerworld fuel index	782	Down 16	x

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR July 2015/August 2015 UNLESS STATED OTHER WISE

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 224/231	x
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 243/250	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 191/195	x
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 203/207	x
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro	USD 204/209	x
Wheat, soft milling #1, France, Rouen	USD 205/208	x
Wheat, soft milling #2, France, Rouen	USD 201/204	x
Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver	USD 215/225	x
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 183/187	x
Wheat Bran, Black Sea	USD no prices	x
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 195/198	x
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver	USD 167/170	x
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 184/187	x
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 230/235	x
Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 188/191	x
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 194/197	x
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 170/175	x
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 165/170	x
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 196/200	x
Corn, FOB France	USD 200/206	x
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 196/199	x
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD 263>>240	x
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 181/185	x
Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA	USD no prices
Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD no prices
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 421/425	x
Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina	USD 370/378	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 409/413	x
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 362/371	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, India FAQ	USD 570/580	x
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 412/425	x
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 379/386	x
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 368/380	x
Soybeans, Rotterdam	USD 430/440	x
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 380/390	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD   685/690 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD   160/165 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD   220/223 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia	USD   276/279 m/t	x

 

 

It is interesting to note that while domestic corn by-product prices were up in most parts of the US, the export prices didn't really move higher. However with domestic prices for DDGS up by USD 10 m/t and for corn gluten feed up USD 5-7 m/t and corn gluten meal up by as much as USD 20 m/t in some parts of the US then we should see an increase in export prices in coming days.

Export offers for corn gluten meal in October are about USD 20 m/t higher then September and no one is offering August as export positions are all sold out.

 

With corn prices moving lower, you would expect that by-products would follow and perhaps they will but with the strong demand for DDGS and CGM (not so much for CGF) it looks like they are trying to stay steady to higher for now.    

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein    Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein	USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia  USD 560/570 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein	USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 440/460 m/t CNF Asia  USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia  USD 520/540 m/t CNF Asia  USD 680/700 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 495/520 m/t CNF Asia  USD 550/560 m/t CNF Asia  USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia  USD 730/750 m/t CNF Asia

 

Animal protein export business has been quiet for the last couple of weeks but could pick up as Ramadan ended this week and Indonesia will be back to work shortly. While prices from Europe and South America have been sliding lower the trend for US and Australian prices seems to be to a little higher levels in coming days. At least one trade report has said that MBM price could increase by USD 50 m/t. MBM supplies are tight from Australia and higher prices are expected.

 

Domestic prices for MBM in the US were up by about USD 30 m/t this week and we will shortly see this in the export market. The US domestic demand is quite strong as MBM is still at a good price level against soymeal. In the US both feathermeal and poultry meal price moved higher in the domestic market and this will push up export prices. With the avian flu situation in the US now under control the poultry related proteins are rallying back from their very low price levels.

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Fishing in Peru is down to almost nothing due to regional fishing bans and such. However, with only about 100,000 m/t left to land on the 2.58 mm/t quota, no one is too worried. In the south of Peru the Quota of 375,000 m/t still has about 125,000 m/t available.

 

According to the trade in Peru the stocks of fishmeal on hand are just over 400,000 m/t but the word is that with the continued drop in prices there is finally some buying interest being seen from the major buyers in Europe – the Europeans are said to be buying the lower quality fishmeal. China is also in the market but at the top end of the quality levels. At least one trade source in Peru says that only 230,000 m/t of 400,000 m/t of fishmeal remain unsold, so there is not a huge supply available.

 

There may be a rush to buy the remaining fishmeal, as there is more and more El Nino talk and there is some concern that, while the next fishing season in Peru should be ok, the first 2016 season may have reduced biomass.

 

The MSI Ceres report this week says that the May Peru fishmeal exports were at about 80,000 m/t with the total Jan/June 2015 exports at only 254,000 m/t – but there were some months early in the year when there was nothing to export so the numbers mean very little --- except that for the first 6 months China represent 84% of Peru's fishmeal exports with almost nothing going to Europe due to price not being competitive with North Atlantic fishmeal.

 

There was a study published last week that expects the demand for fishmeal will quickly grow beyond the supply – perhaps as soon as 2016 but no later than 2019. The report shows that world fishmeal production could drop to 3.5 million m/t by 2025 but that demand may exceed 5.0 million m/t. Of course, long before we get into that position the aquaculture industry will have switched to other alternate protein sources, just as the animal feed industry did years ago. An executive summary of the report is available online at Lux Research's www site.

 

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72 protein	1,550
Danish fishmeal	64 protein	1,430
Peru fishmeal	64 protein	1,480
Chile fishmeal	67 protein	1,550
Iceland fishmeal	70 protein	1,540

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
65 protein	No prices
65/66 protein	1300/1320 m/t
67 protein standard steam	1350/1370 m/t
67 protein SD 150  TVN	1400/1430 m/t	1530/1550
67 protein SD 120 TVN	1480/1500 m/t	1580/1600
67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1520/1540 m/t	1600/1630
68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN	1600/1620 m/t	1630/1650
Fish oil, crude bulk	1900/1950	1700/1800
Fish oil, crude drums	2000/2050
Fish oil, flexi tank	2050/2100
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2400/2450

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon