Hammersmith Trade Services
A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT July 25, 2015
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Looking down the pricing situation for grains and oilseeds this week, it is difficult to find something that actually went up in price: corn was down by about USD 10 to 12 m/t, soybeans down by as much as USD 15 m/t, soymeal down USD 8 to 12 m/t and most milling quality wheat down by about USD 15 m/t.
It is interesting to note that some trade experts are saying that the current drop in prices was as expected but that there could be a decent rally in prices just before the USDA's next WASDE report on August 12. The trade feels that current prices could be a buying opportunity that will not be around for very long.
On the corn side of things – the crop quality report shows very good overall quality but not as good as last year which leads some experts to feel that the USDA crop projections will have to be lowered and corn prices should then move higher.
However, looking at the corn weather at present, all looks very good and there doesn't seem to be much in the forecasts that will move prices higher --- the weather just looks great for US corn at present.
For soybeans/soymeal, the situation was much as for corn with there being little or no weather problems in the US and the current crop of soybeans just happily growing away. The only problematic news for beans and meal is the lower than expected export levels for new crop but mist feel that this will correct itself in coming weeks and that exports should certainly hit the levels expected, in the long run.
Old crop soybeans and soymeal are still at a premium to new crop by USD 10 m/t or more but that is not surprising as we always seem to run short come the end of a crop year and old crop prices reflect the limited supply.
As with corn, some experts feel that there should be a price rally in early August as we get close to the next USDA WASDE report but this is really just guessing where prices will go.
USDA – USA Crop Progress Report – July 21, 2015
| Crop condition | Excellent % | Good % | Fair % | Poor % | Very Poor % | |
| Spring wheat | 15 | 55 | 23 | 6 | 1 | |
| Barley | 19 | 52 | 23 | 5 | 1 | |
| Corn | 17 | 52 | 22 | 7 | 2 | |
| Sorghum | 11 | 56 | 26 | 4 | 3 | |
| Soybeans | 12 | 50 | 27 | 8 | 3 | |
@USDA
France AgriMer – crop condition report – July 21, 2015
The condition of the French corn crop continues to drop as the very hot, dry weather continues.
| Winter crops | Very Good % | Good % | Average % |
| Bad % | Very Bad % | |
| Soft wheat | 20 | 56 | 18 |
| 6 | 1 | |
| Hard wheat | 21 | 57 | 16 |
| 5 | 1 | |
| Barley | 30 | 56 | 11 |
| 2 |
| |
| Barley spring | 8 | 56 | 26 |
| 8 | 2 | |
| Corn | 9 | 53 | 23 |
| 11 | 4 | |
@France AgriMer
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $17/17.50 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $53/54.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $54/55.00 | Steady | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Up $3.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $42/43.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $56/57.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $35/36.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $39/40.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Europe | $26/27.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Australia to China: 40-50,000 m/t | $9.50/10.00 | Up $0.50 | x |
| Australia to Japan: 40-50,000 m/t | $9.50/10.00 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-50,000 m/t | $15/16.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Ukraine to China | $34/35.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster | $38/39.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t | $17/18.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1086 | Up 38 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1896 | Up 184 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1137 | Down 25 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 899 | Up 53 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 428 | Up 1 | x |
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| Bunkerworld fuel index | 760 | Down 22 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR August 2015/October 2015
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 208/220 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 229/236 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 188/193 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 199/203 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 202/207 | x |
| Wheat, soft milling #1, France, Rouen | USD 198/201 | x |
| Wheat, soft milling #2, France, Rouen | USD 196/199 | x |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver | USD 217/225 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 185/188 | x |
| Wheat Bran, Black Sea | USD no prices | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 190/193 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 167/173 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 179/184 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 220/225 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 179/182 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 184/187 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 163/172 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 164/170 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 192/196 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 200/204 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 188/194 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 257>>227 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 150/160 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD no prices | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 419/427 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 411/418 | x |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 369/375 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 403/410 | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 362/372 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FAQ | USD 570/580 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 390/402 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 372/381 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 385/391 | x |
| Soybeans, Rotterdam | USD 421/430 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 380/390 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 685/690 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 160/165 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 223/227 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia | USD 275/279 m/t | x |
According to the trade in the US this week the DDGS business has turned a little quiet – perhaps buyers are hoping for lower prices. While corn prices are lower this week it does take a little time before lower corn prices are reflected in by-product prices. Export buyers always seem to think that a drop in by-product prices should happen at once but as by-products are manufactured products it always take a little time until lower corn prices change the market. Of course buyers will complain that it takes time to see lower prices but if corn prices increase then by-products increase immediately.
In the local market in the USA, DDGS prices were up by as much as USD 10 m/t, even with corn down by close to USD 11 m/t. A similar pattern was seen with corn gluten meal where October prices were about USD 15 to 20 higher than September prices – there were no August prices as CGM is sold out into late September. In the US market even corn gluten feed moved higher on the week.
Needless to say, if corn does continue lower or even stays at the current level then we should see some price weakness in corn by-products but current demand, both domestic and export, is very good and is keeping prices firm.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein | USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 560/570 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 440/460 m/t CNF Asia USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 520/540 m/t CNF Asia USD 680/700 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 495/520 m/t CNF Asia USD 550/560 m/t CNF Asia USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia USD 730/750 m/t CNF Asia |
The comments in the trade for export business all seem to feel that prices should start to move higher – at least once major buyers in Indonesia get back to work after the post-Ramadan Eid holidays. Meat and bone meal prices in Asia are said to be up by as much as USD 30 m/t but there has been little business this week to verify the higher price levels.
Prices in the US domestic market are higher for all animal proteins – at least USD 20 m/t – and suppliers say that it looks like the market could move higher. As long as animal protein works well against soymeal in feed formulations then prices can stay firm and MBM in particular looks quite competitive for deliveries through September.
One difficult situation for the export market is an increase in the difficulties in getting payment from buyers in Vietnam – even on letters of credit. It seems that the market in Vietnam is very soft and that the country is full of MBM and other protein. Buyers are getting their banks to find discrepancies with documents so they don't have to pay – some buyers are totally refusing to pay while others are asking for a large discount in order to accept L/C discrepancies. For our future business in Vietnam we will only sell and ship with a 30% cash down payment in advance – no more straight l/c terms to Vietnam buyers.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Not too much at all to say on the fishmeal business in Peru this week. Fishing has been very limited due to a number of small fishing bans but at the end of the week the northern catch is now up to 2.48 million m/t – 96.3% of quota. The remaining 95,000 m/t on the quota will probably not be landed.
In the south the quota of 375,000 m/t is now up to 250,000 m/t landed.
Peru fishmeal seems to be getting much more competitive in Europe and buyers from Europe are sniffing around in Peru a little more than they have been – actually more than they have for the last six or eight months.
Peru has national holidays next week on Tuesday and Wednesday but most offices will also be closed on Monday – so the fishmeal business in Peru will be very quiet next week. Actually it has been quiet as the week ended so perhaps everyone is taking a few days of extra holidays.
There hasn't been any change in fishmeal prices in Peru this week and if the buying interest from Europe does appear then the slide lower in prices could be at an end.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72 protein | 1,610 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,450 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,460 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67 protein | 1,530 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70 protein | 1,610 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65 protein | No prices |
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| 65/66 protein | 1300/1320 m/t |
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| 67 protein standard steam | 1350/1370 m/t |
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| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1400/1430 m/t | 1530/1550 |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1480/1500 m/t | 1580/1600 |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1520/1540 m/t | 1600/1630 |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1600/1620 m/t | 1630/1650 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1900/1950 | 1700/1800 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2000/2050 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2050/2100 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2400/2450 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon
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