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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
As you will see mentioned a couple of times further down in this week's report, the USA was celebrating Thanksgiving on Thursday and many businesses were closed both Thursday and Friday which means that grain trading at the end of the week is not always the best judge of what is happening in the markets.
Also, due to the holidays, there has been quite a drop in grain reports – neither the US Grains Council nor US Wheat issued their reports this week -- but then I guess that they are allowed holidays too.
Corn prices did not change at all on the week or at least not much as both futures and cash prices were reasonably steady on the week. The FOB NOLA price for corn weakened a little but not enough to create any change in corn prices. USA corn exports for the week were very good but this did not cause any change in the quiet market.
Weather remains good in South America so other that some increased export sales there doesn't seem to be much in the way of news that will push corn prices higher.
Soybeans were down on the week, dropping about USD 5 m/t. The soybean market still seems to be dependent on every scrap of news from China – not too surprising due to their share of the soybean market.
There is a little concern building that there may be too much rain in Brazil which has delayed soybean plantings a little but all seems to be good in Argentina where planting is progressing and rainfall seems to be exactly what is needed.
For the next few weeks/months, Argentina and Brazil are going to be the regions that set the soybean prices trends and as the weather reports go from good to bad and back again then we should see quite a bit of volatility in soybean prices. But, without a major bit of bad news regarding South American crops, it is difficult to see higher prices for soybeans.
USDA – USA Crop Progress Report – November 25, 2015
| Crop condition | Excellent % | Good % | Fair % | Poor % | Very Poor % | |
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| Winter wheat | 11 | 41 | 38 | 8 | 2 | |
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| Harvested: | 2015 % | 2014 % | 5 year avge % |
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| Corn | 96 | 88 | 94 |
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| Soybeans | 95 | 89 | 93 |
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| Sorghum | 94 | 87 | 93 |
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| Planted |
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| Winter wheat | 96 | 99 | 100 |
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@USDA
France AgriMer – crop condition report – November 24, 2015
| Winter crops | Very Good % | Good % | Average % | Bad % | Very Bad % |
| Barley | 35 | 62 | 3 |
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| Wheat - soft | 35 | 63 | 2 |
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| Durum | 20 | 77 | 3 |
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| Planted | 2015 | 2014 |
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| Winter wheat | 99% | 97% |
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| Durum | 96% | 87% |
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| Winter barley | 100% | 99% |
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@France AgriMer
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $14/14.50 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf South Africa | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $16/17.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $48/49.00 | Steady | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | steady | X |
| Argentina to Egypt | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Europe | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $17/18.00 | Steady | x |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t | $6.50/7.00 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t | $7.00/7.50 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $10/11.00 | Steady | x |
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| Ukraine to China | $22/23.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $18/20.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster | $39/41.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $9/10.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t | $39/41.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $29/31.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $11/12.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $16/18.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 581 | Up 95 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 989 | Up 383 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 456 | Down 7 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 467 | Down 5 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 283 | Down 5 | x |
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| Bunkerworld fuel index | 570 | Up 1 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR November 2015/January 2016
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 206/210 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 208/211 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 196/200 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 195/201 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 198/202 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 188/191 | x |
| Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen | USD 187/190 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 198/203 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 185/189 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 177/178 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 187/190 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 184/189 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 220/225 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 173/175 | x |
| Corn, CNF Asia, USA #2 | USD 217/220 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 180/183 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 171/174 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 172/175 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 170/175 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 175/178 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 171/175 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 176/181 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 140/145 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 330/333 | X |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 358/361 | X |
| Soymeal, USA CNF Asia | USD 393/401 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 344/349 | X |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 320/323 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 338/342 | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 305/310 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FAQ | USD 550/560 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 367/370 | x |
| Soybeans USA #2, CNF Asia | USD 378/383 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 348/352 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 342/347 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 359/364 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 607/612 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Asia, cont. | USD 635/640 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Egypt, cont. | USD 670/675 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 164/168 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 188/192 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia, cont | USD 220/224 m/t | x |
The corn by-products markets were very quiet this week – due mainly to the US holidays – and there was very little change in either domestic or export prices. Yes, DDGS were indicated at USD 3 or 4 m/t lower but no one was too excited about doing any business on a holiday week.
Once everyone is recovered from eating too much turkey and turkey left-overs then the market will be back to normal. For me, one of the best things about the Thanksgiving holiday was being able to eat turkey sandwiches for lunch for at least a week – a couple of slices of bread, some butter, lots of turkey breast and salt and pepper – yum, yum.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein | USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 550/570 m/t CNF Asia USD 750/770 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 445/465 m/t CNF Asia USD 520/540 m/t CNF Asia USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia USD 700/720 m/t CNF Asia |
Trade reports say that buyers in Asia, Indonesia in particular, have been able to book meat and bone meal that week at levels of about USD 15 m/t lower than last week. However, sellers are doing their best to try to keep prices up and Australian MBM is said to be selling at a premium to US product. It is also reported that Asian demand for poultry meal is picking up and the trend is now to higher prices in the region.
Poultry meal is extremely competitive to fishmeal into Asia which is probably pushing demand higher.
In the USA domestic market most prices were lower on the week but some of this could be due to the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday and many companies being closed for two days. Two day holidays do tend to distort market prices as volume is so small that indicated prices may not be all that representative of where the market is.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Up to last Thursday, the catch in Peru was at about 243,000 m/t which leaves 867,000 m/t to go and lots of time to catch the balance. According to trade reports, everyone seems happy with the fishing so far.
On the selling side, business has been very quiet as producers are busy catching and processing while buyer are waiting for some slippage in the prices. Prices seen in the trade in Peru were a little lower this week and if the fishing continues along nicely then the trend should be to lower prices levels. However, no one is expecting any major drop in prices in coming weeks, no matter how good the fishing is – the quota is not all that large and fishmeal production will not be overwhelming. It will not take all that much demand from China to use up a very large chunk of the current production.
Much of the talk in this week's trade reports is about whether the quota can all be caught and which way prices are going to go – the better the catch the higher the expectation of lower prices but if fishing was to slack off a bit and finishing the quota comes into question then prices will move higher and a number of buyers will suddenly be in the market to cover their early 2016 needs.
So, it all comes down to how the Peru fishing is progressing and so far all looks quite good, so prices have weakened a little.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72 protein | 1,750 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,505 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,750 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67 protein | 1,850 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70 protein | 1,790 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65 protein | 1550/1570 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1600/1620 m/t |
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| 67 protein standard steam | 1700/1720 m/t | No offers |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1800/1820 m/t | No offers |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1850/1870 m/t | 1820/1840 |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1900/1920 m/t | 1870/1890 |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1950/2000 m/t | 1900/1920 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2000/2050 | 1700/1800 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2100/2150 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2150/2200 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2450/2500 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon
