Weekly report -- Nov 07, 2015

 

HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd -- Grain Trading
-------------------------

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN and sometimes wheat

 

You would have to look far and wide this week to find any grain or protein prices that had moved higher on the week. On the US futures side of things, soybeans and soymeal had the worst week with their prices down by USD 7 to 8 m/t while corn was down by about USD 4 m/t and wheat finished the week about where it had started.

 

Looking at corn, the market is concerned about lower export sales, giant harvests and an expectation of higher ending stocks in next week's USDA report – all of these factors will keep prices from moving higher. One can also see that the futures market is weaker than the cash market as people who need physical corn as having to pay up a little to get nearby supply as farmers are doing their best to hold on to much of their stock. However, there were some comments in the trade that farmer selling could pick up in December as farmers try to liquidate some stock before the end of the tax year.

 

Also with corn futures, while there has not been a drop in the number of contracts outstanding it can be said that investment funds are closing their early positions and moving into later positions.

 

The USDA report on Monday will probably set the price trend for the next while, although no one seems to be expecting any surprises from the USDA.

 

With soybeans, there has been a lot of talk about the strength of the dollar and the effect that this could have on export sales – China in particular. As the dollar reaches new near term highs, it becomes much more expensive for export buyer – especially those with weak currencies.

 

The weather seems ok in South America, for now, as seasonal rains are good and there is nothing worrisome to say about the 2016 soybean crop – some say it is too much rain. There is a Brazil trucker's strike expected next week which may move prices a little higher.

 

With US soybean futures, the speculators are all quite short soybeans and more seem to be going short every week. So, someone is anticipating lower soybean prices.

 

 

USDA reported exports – Feed grains and protein meals – Jan to Sept 2015 – in m/t – major destinations.

 

	Corn	Sorghum	Soybeans	Soymeal
Bangladesh			434,200
Canada	1,047,000			607,100
China	490,000	6,803,600	9,082,100
Colombia	3,384,500		392,700	657,800
Costa Rica	568,000		215,000
Dominican Rep				359,200
Ecuador				289,400
Egypt	967,700		289,300
Germany			1,054,600
Guatemala	646,000			267,900
Holland			1,007,000
Indonesia			1,485,700
Japan	9,960,300	52,800	1,763,600	147,100
Kenya		101,600
Mexico	8,918,100		2,595,300	1,402,500
Peru	1,286,400
Philippines				1,116,700
Saudi Arabia	1,007,300
South Korea	3,452,600
Sudan		56,200
Taiwan	1,621,600		789,400
Thailand			293,100	498,400
Venezuela				500,900
Vietnam			390,700

@USDA GATS STATS

 

USDA – USA Crop Progress Report – November 05, 2015

 

Crop condition		Excellent %	Good %	Fair %	Poor %	Very Poor %
Winter wheat	9		40	39	10	2
Harvested:	2015 %		2014 %	5 year avge %
Corn	85		62	79
Soybeans	92		81	88
Sorghum	79		64	72
Planted
Winter wheat	88		89	90

@USDA

 

 

France AgriMer – crop condition report – November 05, 2015

 

Winter crops	Very Good %	Good %	Average %	Bad %	Very Bad %
Barley	32	64	4
Wheat	33	64	3
Planted	2015	2014
Winter wheat	90%	86%
Winter barley	97%	95%

@France AgriMer

  

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$14/14.50	Down $0.50	x
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$23/24.00	Down $1.00	X
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Down $1.00	X
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$24/25.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch)	$30/31.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$48/49.00	Steady	x
US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch)	$31/32.00	Steady	x
US Gulf South Africa	$33/34.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$31/32.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf China: Panamax	$30/31.00	Down $1.00	x
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$18/19.00	Steady	X
US PNW China: Panamax	$17/18.00	Steady	x
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$41/42.00	Steady	x
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$50/51.00	Down $1.00	x
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$23/24.00	Down $1.00	x
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$38/39.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$34/35.00	Down $1.00	X
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$49/50.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$23/24.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$29/30.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t	$31/32.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Egypt	$22/23.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$21/22.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Saudi Arabia	$34/35.00	Steady	x
Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$22/23.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t	$24/25.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$22/23.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Europe	$23/24.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t	$22/23.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to Saudi Arabia	$32/33.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$19/20.00	Down $1.00	x
Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t	$7.50/8.00	Steady	x
Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t	$7.50/8.00	Steady	X
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t	$11/12.00	Down $1.00	x
Ukraine to China	$24/25.00	Down $1.00	X
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Steady	X
Ukraine to East Med: coaster	$40/42.00	Down $2,00	X
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$11/12.00	Down $1.00	X
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t	$40/42.00	Down $2.00	X
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$31/33.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Down $1.00	X
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)	$13/14.00	up $1.00	X
Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$18/20.00	Down $1.00	X
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$21/22.00	Down $1.00	X
Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t	$27/28.00	Down $1.00	x
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Down $1.00	x
Baltic Dry Index	631	Down 90	x
Baltic Capesize Index	1003	Down 226	x
Baltic Panamax Index	603	Down 72	x
Baltic Supramax Index	571	Down 58	x
Baltic Handisize Index	323	Down 26	x
Bunkerworld fuel index	614	Steady	x

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR November 2015/January 2016

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 222/224	x
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 217/221	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 190/194	x
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 196/205	x
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro	USD 198/202	x
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen	USD 198/200	x
Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen	USD 195/197	x
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver	USD 205/209	x
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 182/185	x
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 186/188	x
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver	USD 182/187	x
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 188/192	x
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 225/230	x
Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 178/181	x
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 183/186	x
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 168/171	x
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 166/168	x
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 171/174	x
Corn, FOB France	USD 183/185	x
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 173/178	x
Corn #2, CNF Asia	USD 214/219	x
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD 185/189	x
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 143/148	x
Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA	USD 346/351	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 386/391	x
Soymeal, CNF Asia	USD 400/407	x
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 364/370	x
Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina	USD 346/351	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 359/365	x
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 327/331	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, India FAQ	USD 550/560	x
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 370/375	x
Soybeans #2, CNF Asia	USD 380/385	x
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 362/368	x
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 360/365	x
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 359/363
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD   590/600 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Meal, CNF Asia, containers	USD   655/660 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Meal, CNF Egypt, containers	USD   685/690 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD   152/158 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD   183/188 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia, cont	USD   219/223 m/t	x

 

With corn prices down on the week, there was good reason for corn by-products not to move higher. The concern about DDGS business to China is casting a pall on the DDGS market as everyone wonders what will happen to the 5 million m/t YTD of business. If the China DDGS business slips, then we should see some serious buying opportunities in the DDGS business as DDGS is still going to be produced every week and it has to go somewhere --- producers will be motivated to sell at lower levels. Export buyers need to keep they eyes on the DDGS market and listen to hear what China is doing with DDGS.

 

The latest USDA Grain Crushing report is out this week and it shows that September production of DDGS is down just a little at 1.9 million m/t both corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed production has dropped by about 5% on the month with CGM at 86,500 m/t and CGF at 312,500 m/t. the numbers mentioned above are for the "dry" version of these products as would be used for export – there are also "wet" versions that are used locally in the feed industry in the USA. The "wet" versions are 40 to 60% moisture.

 

 

USDA reported exports – Corn By-products – Jan to Sept 2015 – in m/t – major destinations.

 

	Distillers Dried Grains DDGS	Corn Gluten Feed	Corn Gluten Meal
Canada	351,300		46,500
Chili			108,900
China	5,418,200
Colombia		36,300
Egypt		161,600	183,900
Indonesia	166,900		111,200
Ireland	164,400
Israel		145,400
Japan	167,100		66,800
Mexico	1,186,100		26,400
Morocco		32,100
South Korea	427,100
Taiwan	144,600
Thailand	267,100		20,400
UK		54,500
Vietnam	440,400

@USDA GATS STATS

 

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein    Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein    Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein	USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia  USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia  USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein	USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia  USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia  USD 550/570 m/t CNF Asia  USD 750/770 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 450/470 m/t CNF Asia  USD 530/550 m/t CNF Asia  USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia  USD 700/720 m/t CNF Asia

 

 

There hasn't been any major change in animal protein prices this week – the attempt by Australian producers to move prices higher has not worked at all and, if anything, Asia prices are a little lower. Well, if not lower, certainly not at the USD 500 m/t price that sellers were trying to get last week. However, a couple of reports this week have said that MBM supplies in Australia are quite tight and that buyers will probably be paying higher prices in coming weeks.

 

In the USA domestic market, the MBM prices have slipped lower and this could put some pressure on US export prices. US trade reports say that there is a very wide range for prices in the domestic market but this is more due to geographic situations than a market trend.

 

It looks like the US market, both domestic and export, is going to find it difficult to move higher for now – that is unless there is good export demand which could add a little strength.

 

 

USDA reported exports – Animal protein – Jan to Sept 2015 – in m/t – major destinations

 

	Meat and Bone Meal Incl: pork and poultry meal	Feathermeal
Canada	41,300	11,600
Chile		18,640
China	23,500
Ecuador	5,700
Indonesia	83,600	32,900
Mexico	18,500
Netherlands	7,000
Philippines	6,700
Vietnam	6,600	2,600

@USDA GATS STATS

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Aha, so now we know – the quota has been set as has the kick off time: 1,110,000 m/t of catch starting on November 17 at 00:00 until January 31, 2016 or earlier if the full quota is landed. The quota covers the area from the northern border of Peru to 16 degrees south latitude.

 

Now we can all relax and stop talking about the quota and get set to trade some fishmeal. There has not been much interest in buying fishmeal the last while as everyone wanted to know how much fishing there would be an how many tons of fishmeal we could count on. The new quota should yield somewhere around 260,000 m/t of fishmeal to go with an estimated 30,000 m/t or so said to still be in Peru.

 

With the processing and the aging, there won't be any new quota fishmeal loading until the second half of December. Then there is the China situation with China probably not needing much in the way of fishmeal until March/April of 2016 – in time for the next aquafeed season.

 

It is never easy to try to guess what China will do – some years they rush in and buy everything available and other years they just buy as they need with not real rush. This year with the China economy facing more difficult times it may be that they will buy as they need, hedging themselves just in case the aqua season is not as productive as past years.

 

The next few weeks will be interesting and probably exciting and one imagines that this week all the ship owners are out making sure that their fishing fleet is in tip-top shape and ready to go fishing. If this was a couple of hundred years ago, the first mate and a couple of strong sailors would be out rounding up all their drunken crew in all the harbor bars in Peru.

 

A little side comment on fishmeal – Rabobank has said that the days of fishmeal as a commodity are probably over as the finite supply of fishmeal and its importance in the aquafeed industry are making fishmeal a product that is important in its own right and can no longer be priced against alternatives like soymeal or corn gluten meal. Rabobank calls fishmeal a "strategic protein". Fish farming continues to grow every year and, although there is never ending research into ways to reduce fishmeal needs, the overall aqua industry growth still insures that fishmeal is in high demand. Rabobank aside, you would have to go back many years to find a time when there were surplus stocks of fishmeal.

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72 protein	1,700
Danish fishmeal	64 protein	1,515
Peru fishmeal	64 protein	1,705
Chile fishmeal	67 protein	1,805
Iceland fishmeal	70 protein	1,770

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
65 protein	1670/1690 m/t
65/66 protein	1700/1720 m/t
67 protein standard steam	1750/1770 m/t	No offers
67 protein SD 150  TVN	1850/1870 m/t	No offers
67 protein SD 120 TVN	1900/1920 m/t	1900/1920
67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1950/1970 m/t	1930/1950
68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN	2000/2050++ m/t	1960/1990++
Fish oil, crude bulk	2000/2050	1700/1800
Fish oil, crude drums	2100/2150
Fish oil, flexi tank	2150/2200
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2450/2500

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon