Weekly report -- Nov 21, 2015

 

HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

Looking at all the grain prices here at the end of the week, one can probably say that corn and soybeans look to be in a bit of a trading range – up a little, down a little. Wheat is a little different as it still has to face all the winter weather concerns so can easily over react to some particularly bad weather news – not so US corn and soybeans which will not be planted for a few months.

 

Of course, the strength of the US dollar, weakness in oil prices and concerns for world economies or world safety can definitely combine to affect grain and oilseed prices – it is not just the planting, growing and weather than push prices around these days – too many other factors combine.

 

The Argentina election run-off this weekend could result in a devaluation of the peso which would reduce the Argentina corn and soy export prices and certainly any drop in their export prices would put pressure on USA export price levels – so we could be looking at lower prices. Although, Monsanto is looking for higher prices for corn in 2016 and this may happen but not this week.

 

Export sales reported this week were good for both corn and soybeans so were positive for prices although there really wasn't any serious sort of a price rally. Corn is still far behind in exports this year but the current low prices should see some increase in US corn exports. Both soybeans and soymeal are also down on last year's exports which most experts are saying is largely due to the drop in imports by China.

 

It is amazing that no matter what you comment on in the commodity business these days it all seems to point at China. I guess that one can say that if it wasn't for China and ethanol then there wouldn't be much of a grain/oilseed business – of course I exaggerate but every grain news story that you read seems to mention either China or ethanol.  

 

Argentina has increased its forecasts for soybean plantings for this coming crop and some experts feel that the actual plantings may be even higher.

 

The weather in both Argentina and Brazil seems to be just fine for now so any weather scares affecting the crops and prices seem to be a ways out in the future --- but they will come, you can count on that.

 

For now, the grain prices in the US and for export seem to be quite happy to just fluctuate a little to keep the market and the farmers excited but there is no clear trend in prices at present.

  

 

 

USDA – USA Crop Progress Report – November 10, 2015

 

Crop condition		Excellent %	Good %	Fair %	Poor %	Very Poor %
Winter wheat	11		41	38	8	2
Harvested:	2015 %		2014 %	5 year avge %
Corn	96		88	94
Soybeans	95		89	93
Sorghum	91		82	89
Planted
Winter wheat	94		95	98

@USDA

 

France AgriMer – crop condition report – November 16, 2015

 

Winter crops	Very Good %	Good %	Average %	Bad %	Very Bad %
Barley	35	62	3
Wheat - soft	36	62	2
Durum	19	76	4	1
Planted	2015	2014
Winter wheat	98%	96%
Durum	92%	83%
Winter barley	100%	99%

@France AgriMer

  

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

The BDI – Baltic Dry Index – the index for bulk cargo in sea freight shipments – has hit a record low once again as the BDI drops to 486, down by more than 50% from its recent high of 978 as set in late September. The record high level for the BDI was set in 2008 at 11,793 – just prior to the financial crisis. As has been mentioned here before, much of the drop in the BDI is due to lower import of major bulk items by China. In addition, the Reuters Core Commodity Index is close to 13 year low levels.

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$14/14.50	Steady	x
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$21/22.00	Down $1.00	X
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$20/21.00	Down $1.00	X
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$22/23.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch)	$30/31.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$46/47.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch)	$31/32.00	Steady	x
US Gulf South Africa	$31/32.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$29/30.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf China: Panamax	$28/29.00	Down $1.00	x
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$17/18.00	Steady	x
US PNW China: Panamax	$16/17.00	Steady	x
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$41/42.00	Steady	x
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$48/49.00	Down $1.00	x
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Down $1.00	x
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Down $1.00	x
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Down $1.00	x
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$37/38.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$32/33.00	Down $1.00	x
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$47/48.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Steady	x
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$27/28.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t	$29/30.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Egypt	$20/21.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$20/21.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Saudi Arabia	$33/34.00	Steady	x
Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$21/22.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t	$22/23.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t	$21/22.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$19/20.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$20/21.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to Europe	$22/23.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t	$20/21.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to Saudi Arabia	$29/30.00	Down $1.00	X
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$17/18.00	Down $1.00	x
Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t	$6.50/7.00	Down $0.50	x
Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t	$7.00/7.50	Down $0.50	X
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t	$10/11.00	Down $1.00	x
Ukraine to China	$23/24.00	Down $1.00	x
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Down $1.00	x
Ukraine to East Med: coaster	$40/42.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$10/11.00	Down $1.00	x
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t	$40/42.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$31/33.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Down $1.00	x
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)	$11/12.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$18/20.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$21/22.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t	$25/26.00	Down $1.00	x
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Down $1.00	x
Baltic Dry Index	486	Down 62	x
Baltic Capesize Index	606	Down 203	x
Baltic Panamax Index	463	Down 51	x
Baltic Supramax Index	472	Down 51	x
Baltic Handisize Index	288	Down 16	x
Bunkerworld fuel index	569	Down 15	x

 

 

 

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR November 2015/January 2016

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 206/209	x
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 210/213	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 195/200	x
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 197/202	x
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro	USD 198/202	x
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen	USD 189/192	x
Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen	USD 185/188	x
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver	USD 202/207	x
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 185/189	x
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 174/177	x
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver	USD 184/187	x
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 182/189	x
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 222/226	x
Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 171/173	x
Corn, CNF Asia, USA #2	USD 218/223	x
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 178/181	x
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 172/175	x
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 171/174	x
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 169/174	x
Corn, FOB France	USD 183/186	x
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 171/175	x
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD 180/183	x
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 140/145	x
Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA	USD 340/343	X
Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 368/371	X
Soymeal, USA CNF Asia	USD 396/404	x
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 355/360	X
Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina	USD 332/337	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 352/357	x
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 316/321	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, India FAQ	USD 550/560	x
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 364/369	x
Soybeans USA #2, CNF Asia	USD 383/388	x
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 358/364	x
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 354/359	x
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 363/368	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD   600/610 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Asia, cont.	USD   639/649 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Egypt, cont.	USD   680/685 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD   162/166 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD   185/188 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia, cont	USD   217/221 m/t	x

 

Corn by-products seemed to have a very quiet week this week as there just didn't seem to be much buying interest in the export market and even the sellers were not being too pushy. It would seem that all the market needs is a couple of weeks of quiet prices for corn to have everything slow down to a crawl.

 

The drop in freight costs to Asia and other markets is certainly making CNF prices look very attractive for DDGS and, as you can see in prices above, DDGS can get to Asia at about the same price as corn.

 

Even the corn gluten meal business was quiet this week although the trade did report some new business to Egypt but that is not surprising as Egypt is the major world importer of US corn gluten meal and buys close to 20,000 m/t per month.

 

There does not seem to be any reason at present to expect prices to move higher – we seem to be caught in a trading range with prices up a little or down a little each week but overall not changing very much.

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein    Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein    Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein	USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia  USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia  USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein	USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia  USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia  USD 550/570 m/t CNF Asia  USD 750/770 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 450/470 m/t CNF Asia  USD 520/540 m/t CNF Asia  USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia  USD 700/720 m/t CNF Asia

 

The trade reports that meat and bone meal prices in Asia are weaker at the end of the week with buyer bidding USD 15 to 20 below the prices shown above and some business is said to be being done at those low levels. It is also reported that Australian pure beef MBM is being traded at higher price levels while the multi-origin MBM prices are steady to weaker.

 

Indonesia is the major export market for USA animal proteins and it is reported that sellers to Indonesia have been very aggressive in their pricing as they try to lock down some business. So we seem to have a two tier market for animal proteins – lower prices to Indonesia, where volume is good but higher prices to other countries where imports are smaller.

 

The Jacobsen report this week pointed out how poultry meal is getting much more competitive when compared to fishmeal and is currently at close to its lowest price this year versus fishmeal.

 

Animal protein prices in the US domestic market were lower on the week even though MBM is very competitive against soymeal. Buyers seem to be expecting soymeal prices to drop even lower so are holding off on buying any MBM. USA prices for both feathermeal and poultry meal were unchanged in the week.

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

So, here we are out fishing in Peru with about 75,000 m/t of catch in the first three days. Unfortunately, the level of juvenile fish was quite high in three areas – Chancay, Pisco, Tambo de Mora -  with percentages of about 16% juvenile in the total catch – other areas were at 5% or lower.

 

The government has announced a 5 day mini-ban for the Pisco, Tambo de Mora zones.

 

Reported meal production is at about 22.7% of the catch with oil yields at 1.6% overall.

 

According to traders in Peru, there is still little or no new fishmeal export business as buyers are still waiting to see what happens with prices and exporters are waiting to see how the fishing season progresses. Neither buyer nor seller seem to be in any hurry to do business.

 

There is very little to report this week as we are all just waiting to see how the fishing progresses.

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72 protein	1,775
Danish fishmeal	64 protein	1,525
Peru fishmeal	64 protein	1,755
Chile fishmeal	67 protein	1,855
Iceland fishmeal	70 protein	1,790

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
65 protein	1650/1670 m/t
65/66 protein	1700/1720 m/t
67 protein standard steam	1750/1770 m/t	No offers
67 protein SD 150  TVN	1850/1870 m/t	No offers
67 protein SD 120 TVN	1900/1920 m/t	1900/1920
67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1950/1970 m/t	1930/1950
68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN	2000/2050++ m/t	1960/1990++
Fish oil, crude bulk	2000/2050	1700/1800
Fish oil, crude drums	2100/2150
Fish oil, flexi tank	2150/2200
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2450/2500

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon