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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Sorry about missing reports for the past two weeks but I just ran out of time due to travelling steadily for 14 days or so. It takes quite a bit of time to put together all the bits of information for the report and then to write it – so, sometimes business has to take precedence over the weekly report. But, I am back with the report today.
The grain and oilseeds futures markets had some exciting moments during the week but ended the week very close in price to where they had been the week before. Corn prices were up by no more than USD 1.00 m/t while soybeans did add about USD 2.50 m/t and soymeal close to USD 4.00 m/t. However, looking at recent price activity these changes would qualify as a "nothing happening" week.
On the corn side of things, about the only factor pushing prices higher has been some dry areas in Argentina that may effect to overall crop yield. There was quite a bit of talk in the trade about the amount of feed wheat that is available for export in the world with Argentina and the Ukraine having very large stocks. Feed wheat can't replace corn in every market but it can certainly fight for a share of many corn importing markets.
One small bullish factor for US corn prices was the USDA report that showed beef cattle herds up by about 4% which could be longer term bullish for corn prices.
With soybeans, the harvest has begun in Brazil but so far it has been more rain storms than harvesting but it will dry out. Argentina will not start their harvest for another 4 weeks or so. Soybeans had quite a down then up week in prices – down when China cancelled some business then up when rain delayed the Brazil harvest.
As a matter of info, large speculators are reported to have increased their short position in soybeans, certainly they are not worried about a possible rally in prices. With corn, the large specs are reducing their short positions. However, 70% of large speculators are still short corn
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $12/13.00 |
| x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 |
| x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $19/20.00 |
| x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $18/19.00 |
| x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $20/21.00 |
| x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 |
| x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 |
| x |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 |
| x |
| US Gulf South Africa | $27/28.00 |
| x |
| US Gulf Bangladesh | $29/30.00 |
| x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $23/24.00 |
| x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $21/22.00 |
| x |
| US PNW South Africa | $41/43.00 |
| x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $14/15.00 |
| x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $13/14.00 |
| x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $40/41.00 |
| x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $47/48.00 |
| x |
|
|
|
|
|
| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 |
| x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $21/22.00 |
| x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) | $23/24.00 |
| x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $19/20.00 |
| x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $27/28.00 |
| x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $29/30.00 |
| x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $43/44.00 |
| x |
|
|
|
|
|
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $19/20.00 |
| x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $21/22.00 |
| x |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $23/24.00 |
| x |
| Argentina to Egypt | $18/19.00 |
| x |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $18/19.00 |
| x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 |
| x |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $31/32.00 |
| x |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 |
| x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $21/22.00 |
| x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $19/20.00 |
| x |
|
|
|
|
|
| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $19/20.00 |
| x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $14/15.00 |
| x |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $15/16.00 |
| x |
| Brazil to Europe | $21/22.00 |
| x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $18/19.00 |
| x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $28/29.00 |
| x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $16/17.00 |
| x |
|
|
|
|
|
| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t | $6.50/7.00 |
| x |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t | $7.50/8.00 |
| x |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $10.00/10.50 |
| x |
| Australia to South Africa | $20/21.00 |
| X |
| Australia to Iran | $28/29.00 |
| x |
|
|
|
|
|
| Ukraine to China | $18/19.00 |
| x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $19/20.00 |
| x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $32/33.00 |
| x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $7/9.00 |
| x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $32/33.00 |
| x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $26/28.00 |
| x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $19/20.00 |
| x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $7/8.00 |
| x |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $15/17.00 |
| x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $20/21.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $21/22.00 |
| x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $18/19.00 |
| x |
|
|
|
|
|
| Baltic Dry Index | 317 |
| x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 211 |
| x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 287 |
| x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 304 |
| x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 219 |
| x |
|
|
|
|
|
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR February/April 2016
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 205/207 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 216/219 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 173/177 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 182/186 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 179/182 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 176/178 | x |
| Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen | USD 174/176 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 191/194 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 170/173 | x |
|
|
|
|
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 167/169 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 164/168 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 171/175 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD no prices | x |
|
|
|
|
| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 172>>168 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 174/177 | x |
| Corn, CNF Asia, USA #2 | USD 215/220 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 164/168 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 159/164 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 164/168 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 167/169 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 167/170 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 176/182 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 138/143 | x |
|
|
|
|
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 320/323 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 347/350 | x |
| Soymeal, USA CNF Asia | USD 372/382 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 321/327 | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 298/303 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 315/320 | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 290/295 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, India FAQ | USD 545/555 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 358/363 | x |
| Soybeans USA #2, CNF Asia | USD 384/390 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 322/325 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 332/336 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 355/365 | x |
|
|
|
|
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 560/570 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Asia, cont. | USD 614/619 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Egypt, cont. | USD 640>>635 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 165/170 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 180>>177 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia, cont | USD 220>>/210 m/t | x |
There has been a rush to buy DDGS from some in China in order that supplies can be received before any possible US DDGS import penalties can come into place. This rush has pushed the spot prices higher and made it difficult to find supply for nearby loading. The industry expects that DDGS prices will weaken late in March as China may announce what it is going to do. But also, March tends to be the time when DDGS prices are at their yearly lows.
Both corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed export prices seem to be in a range moving up and down a little every week. Egypt is the main export buyer for US CGM and buyers in Egypt say that they are up to their ears in CGM as every trader seems to have decided to import in recent weeks. Egypt's 2015 imports of CGM are up by about 35 percent on 2014 and at the highest level seen in 5 years.
Currently there seems to be little reason for DDGS, CGM or CGF prices to move higher and they will probably continue to follow the price trends seen in corn and soymeal/
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein | USD 360/380 m/t CNF Asia USD 470/480 m/t CNF Asia USD 450/470 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD 360/380 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 360/380 m/t CNF Asia USD 390/400 m/t CNF Asia USD 480/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 660/680 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 350/380 m/t CNF Asia USD 410/430 m/t CNF Asia USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 680/700 m/t CNF Asia |
US animal protein export prices continue to move lower and good availability for US material is making to very difficult for higher priced shippers in Australia and New Zealand to book any new business. The supply in both OZ and NZ has been limited and his has kept their prices high but now that all the holidays are well over and everything is back to normal production then we should see more availability from OZ/NZ – but it will have to be at lower prices.
With vegetable proteins and fishmeal all showing weak or lower prices, it is difficult to see any higher prices for animal proteins in the near term. There was a study mentioned in the press this week that said that world farm animal population is growing which will mean more feed. So, on the animal protein side of things, the more animals there are the higher the supply of animal proteins.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
So, here we are at the end of the month and then end of the quota period with the latest numbers, as of the 28th of January showing only 45,000 m/t to go to full quota. With 3 days fishing remaining they will probably land another 10,000 m/t or so leaving about 35,000 m/t not landed. Overall the fishing in the North has gone quite well and we are much closer to the full quota than some experts had been predicting.
There was a small surge in buying as some people saw reasonable prices for nearby shipments, both China and Germany were in the market but the volume sold was not too great. China goes on holidays for Chinese New Year on February 8th, so we are approaching a period of even less buyer activity but we could see some excitement this week if Chinese buyers want to cover some needs prior to the long New Year holiday.
While there was some buying interest, it was all at lower price levels and the few buyers still sniffing around are looking for even lower prices. Some say that the business done by German buyers this week was about USD 50 m/t lower than the prices shown below – but this cannot be confirmed.
No one in the business is expecting to see prices move higher in the short term as there is lots of supply and only minimal demand – steady to lower would seem to be the direction for fishmeal prices.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,690 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,480 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,540 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,640 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,730 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
|
|
|
|
| 65% protein | 1340/1360 m/t |
|
| 65/66 protein | 1360/1380 m/t |
|
| 67% protein standard steam | 1400/1420 m/t | 1480/1500 |
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1500/1520 m/t | 1540/1560 |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1580/1600 m/t | 1570/1590 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1660/1680 m/t | 1660/1680 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1700/1720 m/t | 1700/1720 |
|
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|
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2000/2050 | 1800/1900 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2150/2200 |
|
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2250/2300 |
|
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2500/2550 |
|
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2016 Wayne S. Bacon
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