Weekly Report - Feb 06, 2016

 

HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

This week's report is coming to you from cold, wet and windy Edinburgh, Scotland. The weather may not be all that good this week but Edinburgh is certainly a beautiful city and just happens to be my wife's home town.

 

Again this week, one would be very hard pressed to find a grain or oilseed price that moved higher. On the futures side of things, corn prices were down by about USD 2 m/t with soybeans down by USD 5 m/t or so and soymeal down by about USD 7 m/t. The weakest grain on the week has been wheat where prices dropped by as much as USD 7 m/t.

 

Trade reports say that expected increased crops in both Argentina and Brazil are helping to push prices lower. That and the fact that every grain report is bearish has certainly put the market in a lower price mood. Of course, the only news that we seem to see these days is for bigger crops and lower prices – there just does not seem to be any news anywhere that will move prices higher.

 

However, the US dollar has slipped a little in the past few days and this could cause a mini rally in grain prices but still this will not be any major price rally.

 

Most US trade reports are talking about the possible El Nino effect on the 2016 US crop but it is still much too early for these concerns to have any significant effect on current prices but, as we get closer to US planting, the El Nino concerns will have a much greater effect and this may be what will stop the trend to lower prices for grains.  

 

Of course, we do have the USDA WASDE report out this coming week which could change things but no one seems to be expecting much in the way of surprises from a February WASDE report.

 

For now, prices seem to be stuck in a trading range – up a little and down a little – as we all wait for something exciting to happen in the grain markets.

 

One final note, I had a question from a reader this week as to why there are "x" down the side of my freight and price tables. The reason is that I clear all the "x" prior to updating prices then as I update I add the X – when all the spaces are full of x's then all the prices are updated. I started doing this so that I didn't lose track of what prices I had updated.

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$11/12.00	Down $1.00	X
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch)	$20/21.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$19/20.00	Steady	X
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$18/19.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$20/21.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$44/45.00	Steady	X
US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Steady	X
US Gulf South Africa	$27/28.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Bangladesh	$29/30.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$22/23.00	Down $1.00	X
US Gulf China: Panamax	$20/21.00	Down $1.00	X
US PNW South Africa	$39/40.00	Down $2.00	X
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$13/14.00	Down $1.00	x
US PNW China: Panamax	$12/13.00	Down $1.00	X
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$40/41.00	Steady	X
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$47/48.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$18/19.00	Down $2.00	X
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$20/21.00	Down $1.00	X
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch)	$23/24.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$17/18.00	Down $2.00	X
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$25/26.00	Down $2.00	X
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$27/28.00	Down $2.00	X
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$42/43.00	Down $1.00	X
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$18/19.00	Down $1.00	X
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$21/22.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$23/24.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Egypt	$18/19.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$16/17.00	Down $2.00	X
Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$17/18.00	Down $3.00	X
Argentina to Saudi Arabia	$30/31.00	Down $1.00	X
Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Down $2.00	X
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$20/21.00	Down $1.00	X
Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t	$18/19.00	Down$1.00	X
Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t	$19/20.00	Steady	X
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$14/15.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$15/16.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Europe	$19/20.00	Down $2.00	X
Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t	$17/18.00	Down $1.00	X
Brazil to Saudi Arabia	$27/28.00	Down $1.00	X
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$14/15.00	Down $2.00	X
Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t	$7.00/7.50	Up $0.50	X
Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t	$7.50/8.00	Steady	X
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t	$10.00/10.50	Steady	X
Australia to South Africa	$20/21.00	Steady	X
Australia to Iran	$28/29.00	Steady	X
Ukraine to China	$17/18.00	Down $1.00	X
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$19/20.00	Steady	X
Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)	$32/33.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$7/9.00	Steady	X
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)	$32/33.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Down $2.00	X
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$17/18.00	Down $2.00	X
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)	$10/11.00	Up $3.00	X
Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$14/15.00	Down $1.00	X
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$20/21.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t	$21/22.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$16/17.00	Down $2.00	X
Baltic Dry Index	297	Down 20	x
Baltic Capesize Index	212	Up 1	X
Baltic Panamax Index	295	Up 8	X
Baltic Supramax Index	262	Down 42	X
Baltic Handisize Index	194	Down 25	x

 

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR February/April 2016

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 199/203	X
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 209/213	X
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 171/174	X
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 182/186	X
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro	USD 180/183	X
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen	USD 174/176	X
Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen	USD 172/174	X
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver	USD 195/198	X
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 170/174	X
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 166/168	X
Barley, feed, Argentina	USD 160/165	X
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 171/175	X
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD no prices	X
Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 174>>168	X
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 176/179	X
Corn, CNF Asia, USA #2	USD 213/219	x
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 167/170	X
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 162/166	X
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 169/173	X
Corn, FOB France	USD 170/172	X
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 171/174	X
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD 177/182	X
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 140/144	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA	USD 315/318	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 342/345	X
Soymeal, USA CNF Asia	USD 372/379	x
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 328/331	X
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina	USD 305/308	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 321/324	X
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 286/290	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, India FAQ	USD 545/555	x
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 354/359	X
Soybeans USA #2, CNF Asia	USD 386/391	x
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 327/330	X
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 336/340	X
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 360/365	X
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD  560/570 m/t	X
Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Asia, cont.	USD  609/613 m/t	X
Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Egypt, cont.	USD  635>>630 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD  165/170 m/t	X
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD  181>>178 m/t	X
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia, cont	USD  229>>221 m/t	X

 

The USDA corn milling report was out this week and shows that DDGS monthly production is up very slightly to 1.97 million m/t with corn gluten meal at about 89,000 m/t production and corn gluten feed at 340,000 m/t produced. All these December production numbers are up 3 to 5 percent from the November numbers. The numbers above are for the production of "dry" product and does not include the quite significant production of wet corn gluten feed or distiller's wet grains – both of which are used locally and not exported.

 

On the export side of things most export prices for corn by-products were lower on the week as there just seems to be no reason to expect prices to be moving higher. Corn prices are not moving higher and the question over DDGS to China both are keeping prices from moving higher. And with US production increasing against limited export buying then there is no current reason for a price rally.

 

Soymeal prices also continued lower on the week and this certainly helps to limit any strength in the corn protein side of things.

 

Again, it looks like steady to lower prices until something happens to rally the market.

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein    Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein    Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein	USD 400/410 m/t CNF Asia  USD 425/435 m/t CNF Asia  USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein	USD 360/380 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 360/380 m/t CNF Asia  USD 390/400 m/t CNF Asia  USD 480/490 m/t CNF Asia  USD 660/680 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 350/380 m/t CNF Asia  USD 410/430 m/t CNF Asia  USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia  USD 680/700 m/t CNF Asia

 

With Asia being the largest destination for export animal proteins, the Chinese New Year has caused business to go quite quiet. Although, the trade does report good buying interest from Indonesia, albeit at lower price levels. However, there does seem to be a small trend for prices to move a little higher for April/May shipment rather than the very low prices seen for spot business.

 

USA domestic and export prices for meat and bone meal were steady this week but both feathermeal and poultry meal move lower due to large supplies and little buying interest. One US trade report was mentioning how animal proteins are currently at record low levels versus vegetable proteins and that they don't see these low levels continuing. They feel that the trend in animal protein must be steady to higher as we get past February/March. So, we may be in for higher prices.  

 

Reports out of South America say that animal protein exporters there can't find buyers anywhere and that they are willing to consider almost any export price bid – no matter how low it may be.

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Depending on which report you read the final catch in northern Peru was just over or just under the quota but it makes little difference exactly what the number was as the season is over and fishmeal production looks to be about 260,000 m/t. The new quota for southern Peru is at 382,000 m/t of fish and it runs until the end of June with nothing landed so far. The southern quota should add about 92,000 m/t of fishmeal to the production, spread over five months.

 

Peru is estimated to have about 250,000 m/t of fishmeal inventory with about 30 percent being Super prime, 30 percent Prime and the last 40 percent being the lower grades.

 

The trade has now moved on to thinking about the next northern Peru fishing season which should start in early May.

 

China is on holiday for their New Year celebrations, this is the year of the monkey, so the export fishmeal business is very quiet and producer's exporters have a few days to get organized and set up for their hoped for, after New Year, rush of buying interest.  

 

The trade reports that buying interest seems to be growing from both Asia and Europe. It seems that, as prices slip lower and Peru becomes more competitive, buying interest builds quite quickly and prices certainly have moved lower in recent days. Peru and Chile fishmeal is actually looking to be quite competitive against other origins in world markets.

 

There doesn't seem to be any good reason for fishmeal prices to be moving higher at present but it is possible that a rush of buying from China could keep prices steady or create a small rally. We will have to see after Chinese New Year.

 

One more note on China, the latest export number for all of 2015 show China to be close to 75 percent of the Peru fishmeal export business. So, China has a major effect on all fishmeal business.

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Much of the change in prices is due to the change in USD exchange rates.

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72% protein	1,715
Danish fishmeal	64% protein	1,550
Peru fishmeal	64% protein	1,560
Chile fishmeal	67% protein	1,660
Iceland fishmeal	70% protein	1,750

 

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
65% protein	1270/1290 m/t
65/66 protein	1300/1320 m/t
67% protein standard steam	1400/1420 m/t	1400/1430
67% protein 150 TVN	1450/1470 m/t	1450/1480
67% protein 120 TVN	1530/1550 m/t	1530/1550
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1580/1600 m/t	1580/1600
68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN	1650/1670 m/t	1650/1670
Fish oil, crude bulk	2300/2350	2100/2200
Fish oil, crude drums	2450/2500
Fish oil, flexi tank	2550/2600
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2800/2850

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2016 Wayne S. Bacon