Weekly report - Feb 13, 2016

 

HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

The weekly story on grain and oilseed prices has not changed much in a few weeks. Prices are weak and all the news we see seems to be bearish – supplies are up, crops are up, stocks are up and prices are down.

 

Corn prices were down a little on the week – perhaps as much as USD 5 m/t in the US export market but only down USD 3 m/t or so in futures. The weather for corn in Argentina and Brazil seems to be quite good and even South Africa has had some rain. South Africa's corn imports could be as much as 2 million m/t lower than estimates only a few weeks ago.

 

And then we have Russia banning US corn and soybean imports – not too important as they don't import any at this time – so, it is more political than economic.

 

Reading all the various trade reports at the end of the week one could say that overall it was a boring week for corn with little or nothing in the way of excitement.

 

Soybeans were up a little this week, both in futures and cash, but only by a couple of dollars. The experts seem to feel that the little rally in the market this week was of no importance and does not set any new trend to higher prices.

 

As with corn, the South American weather for soybeans is good with little or nothing in the way of crop worried this week. Brazil is already harvesting soybeans so about all the weather can do now id delay the harvest a little – Argentina will begin harvesting soybeans shortly.

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$11/12.00	Steady	x
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch)	$20/21.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$19/20.00	Steady	x
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$18/19.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$20/21.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$43/44.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Steady	x
US Gulf South Africa	$27/28.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Bangladesh	$29/30.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$22/23.00	Steady	x
US Gulf China: Panamax	$20/21.00	Steady	x
US PNW South Africa	$37/38.00	Down $2.00	x
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$13/14.00	Steady	x
US PNW China: Panamax	$12/13.00	Steady	x
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$39/40.00	Down $1.00	X
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$46/47.00	Down $1.00	x
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$18/19.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$20/21.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Down $1.00	x
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$17/18.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$25/26.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$26/27.00	Down $1.00	x
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$41/42.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$17/18.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$21/22.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$23/24.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Egypt	$18/19.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$15/16.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$16/17.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Saudi Arabia	$30/31.00	Steady	x
Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$19/20.00	Down $2.00	x
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$19/20.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t	$17/18.00	Down$1.00	x
Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t	$19/20.00	Steady	x
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$14/15.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$15/16.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Europe	$18/19.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t	$17/18.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Saudi Arabia	$26/27.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$14/15.00	Steady	x
Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t	$7.50/8.00	Up $0.50	x
Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t	$8.00/8.50	Up $0.50	x
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t	$10/11.00	Steady	x
Australia to South Africa	$19/20.00	Down $1.00	X
Australia to Iran	$27/28.00	Down $1.00	x
Ukraine to China	$17/18.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$19/20.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)	$34/35.00	Up $2.00	x
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$7/9.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)	$34/35.00	Up $2.00	x
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$16/17.00	Down $1.00	x
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)	$10/11.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$14/15.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$20/21.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t	$20/21.00	Down $1.00	X
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$15/16.00	Down $1.00	x
Baltic Dry Index	291	Down 6	x
Baltic Capesize Index	199	Down 13	x
Baltic Panamax Index	324	Up 29	x
Baltic Supramax Index	243	Down 19	x
Baltic Handisize Index	183	Down 11	x

 

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR February/April 2016

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 198/202	x
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 208/212	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 171/173	x
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 181/184	x
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro	USD 175/178	x
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen	USD 172/174	x
Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen	USD 170/172	x
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver	USD 195/198	x
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 170/172	x
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 165/167	x
Barley, feed, Argentina	USD 158/163	x
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 171/175	x
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 140/145	x
Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 168>>164	x
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 172>>169	x
Corn, CNF Asia, USA #2	USD 208/213	x
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 166/169	x
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 158/162	x
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 166/171	x
Corn, FOB France	USD 171/174	x
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 170/173	x
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD 175/179	x
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 150/155	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA	USD 314/318	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 341/345	x
Soymeal, USA CNF Asia	USD 371/377	x
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 322/327	x
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina	USD 306/309	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 319/323	x
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 285/289	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, India FAQ	USD 545/555	x
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 350/355	x
Soybeans USA #2, CNF Asia	USD 378/383	x
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 326/330	x
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 339/342	x
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 370/375	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD  550/560 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Asia, cont.	USD  609/613 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Egypt, cont.	USD  635/640 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD  170/175 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD  190>>184 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia, cont	USD  230>>224 m/t	x

 

 

US export DDGS prices were a little higher this week due mainly to a shortage of supply for nearby positions pushing the spot prices higher. Once you get out a few weeks the prices drop off a little. Like most other markets, the export market for DDGS was quiet this past week due to Chinese New Year bit there were some stories that Chinese buyers were sniffing around the market at the end of the week. Perhaps the sniffs will turn into bookings this coming week as everyone gets back to work. Of course, buyers will have to wait until Tuesday as Monday is a USA holiday for most businesses.

 

Export prices for corn gluten meal slipped a little lower this week in the export market while US domestic prices were steady to a little higher in most markets. The overall average US domestic price, for CGM, as calculated by the USDA, was up by about $0.40 per ton, not much of a change. Egypt is the largest buyer of US CGM and it is reported that very large stocks in Egypt will reduce imports over the next couple of months while these stocks are used.

 

Corn gluten feed prices for export were also up a little while the domestic prices were steady to a little lower. There may be more interest in CGF in coming months as it may be that there is a shortage of wheat bran developing in some markets and CGF could just fit in to replace wheat bran. Black Sea wheat bran in particular is in short supply and export shippers say that they are sold out well into the future.

  

 

USA exports of corn by-products – 12 months 2015 – in m/t – major destinations

 

	Corn Gluten Meal	Corn Gluten Feed	Distillers Dried Grains DDGS
Canada	64,000	27,100	511,800
Chile	160,800
China			6,297,200
Colombia	76,300	51,800	123,900
Costa Rica			83,300
Egypt	193,600	8,300	95,500
El Salvador	12,800		60,400
Germany		63,500
Guatemala	9,075		42,800
Indonesia	139,400		227,600
Ireland		217,800	248,300
Israel		172,400	124,100
Japan			241,100
Malaysia	21,800		35,800
Mexico	35,800	18,300	1,649,100
Morocco		47,500	110,100
Peru	18,700
Philippines			107,700
Portugal		17,400
South Korea		16,500	643,600
Spain		44,700	150,700
Taiwan	20,500		199,300
Thailand	25,600		401,300
Tunisia		4,000
Turkey		39,000	207,900
UK		55,300	152,200
Vietnam	13,700		660,000

@USDA GATS

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein    Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein    Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein	USD 400/410 m/t CNF Asia  USD 425/435 m/t CNF Asia  USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein	USD 380/400 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 360/380 m/t CNF Asia  USD 390/400 m/t CNF Asia  USD 460/470 m/t CNF Asia  USD 640/660 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 370/380 m/t CNF Asia  USD 390/410 m/t CNF Asia  USD 390/410 m/t CNF Asia  USD 680/700 m/t CNF Asia

 

 

The Chinese New Year celebrations affected the animal protein business this week as some of the major buyers were on holidays but all will be back to work by Monday. The word in the trade is that supplies of animal proteins from New Zealand and Australia will be tightening in coming weeks and that there may just be a rally in prices if Asian buyers get too nervous and start to over buy a little. Of course, this is just speculation, as there are few buyers in the market at present.

 

USA domestic prices seemed to want to move a little higher this week, even with soymeal down a little, but the trade reports don't seem to feel that there is much expectation of higher prices continuing. The experts seem to feel that a little increase in prices this week was just a short term rally. However, low prices could attract more feed use and eventually move prices a little higher. But then not much higher if soymeal continues weak.

 

USA exports of animal protein meals – 12 months 2015 – in m/t - major destinations

 

	Meat and bone meal Incl pork and poultry meal	Feathermeal
Bangladesh	3,800
Canada	58,700	15,600
Chile		24,400
China	35,600	1,000
Ecuador	6,500
Holland	9,600
Honduras	3,700
Indonesia	114,000	41,700
Mexico	24,800
Philippines	10,600
Thailand	5,200
UK	4,400
Vietnam	8,200	2,600

@USDA GATS

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

All the Peru speculation has turned to the next fishing season with the trade expecting that the next fishing season, in May 2016, will have a very generous quota - this is based on comments by the Minister that the quota will be higher than last year. Last year's quota was just a shade under 2.6 million m/t of catch.

 

All is very quiet in the export fishmeal business now that China has been off celebrating New Year and the year of the monkey. However, everyone should be back to work by Monday, February 15^th and then it is hoped that some buying interest will appear.

 

January's Peru fishmeal exports were the lowest in several years at only 8,600 m/t – well below the 110,000+ m/t shipments seen in both 2013 and 2014 – but all should catch up since there is supply on hand.

 

The IFFO report of last week shows that fishmeal production for 2016 is far above 2015 but that is because there was no Peru fishmeal production in the first weeks of 2015 – so a straight comparison of years means little.

 

As to current prices – there seems to be little reason to expect higher prices and stories are that the few shoppers in the past week have been bidding well below producer price levels. If buyers from China do jump in and buy up stocks then it will certainly affect prices but China will buy for low prices and leave the remainder for smaller buyers to fight over – perhaps at higher prices.

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72% protein	1,740
Danish fishmeal	64% protein	1,560
Peru fishmeal	64% protein	1,550
Chile fishmeal	67% protein	1,650
Iceland fishmeal	70% protein	1,750

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
65% protein	1270/1290 m/t
65/66 protein	1300/1320 m/t
67% protein standard steam	1400/1420 m/t	1400/1430
67% protein 150 TVN	1450/1470 m/t	1450/1480
67% protein 120 TVN	1530/1550 m/t	1530/1550
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1580/1600 m/t	1580/1600
68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN	1650/1670 m/t	1650/1670
Fish oil, crude bulk	2300/2350	2100/2200
Fish oil, crude drums	2450/2500
Fish oil, flexi tank	2550/2600
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2800/2850

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2016 Wayne S. Bacon