Weekly report June 12, 2016

 

HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

This report is coming to you a day late from the wilds of London. Here for the IGC and the GAFTA dinner. I didn't quite get around to working on the report yesterday, just too many reasons to go out and enjoy an evening in London. It is raining this morning so a good time to work.  

 

In the USA, soybeans and soymeal continued to be the exciting items this week as both were up strongly – mainly in the new crop prices as old crop had already had a good run higher. Depending on the shipment period, soybeans were up as much as USD 20 m/t on the week while soymeal for shipment later in 2016 was up by USD 20 to 25 m/t. Prices for July and August shipments were not quite as strong but were still up by close to USD 15 m/t for both soybean and soymeal.

 

A number of experts have mentioned in their weekend reports that both soybeans and soymeal may have moved a little too high and that there may be a downward price adjustment in coming days. It seems that the strong futures market rally just pushed everything up but that the futures rally may be more panic than actual fundamentals and markets could weaken which should also move cash and export prices a little lower.

 

Corn prices were only a little higher on the week in both futures and cash with the futures closing higher for the fifth week in a row. Higher – but not all that much higher.

 

All looks good so far for the US corn crop with nothing bad seen in the weather and no immediate concerns for the crop. Export sales have been very good and look to continue for a little. So will probably not see any reason much for corn prices to drop but at the same time there is not much at present to start any serious rally in corn prices. Looks like the trend for now is steady to higher with not much reason for lower.   

 

 

Crop planting progress and condition --- USA and France

 

Planting USA	June 05 2016 %	June 05 2015 %	Five year Average %
Corn	98	99	97
Sorghum	58	52	62
Soybeans	83	77	77
Spring Wheat	100	100	83
Barley	100	100	94
Condition USA	Very poor	Poor	Fair	Good	Excellent
Winter wheat - %	2	7	29	50	12
Spring wheat	0	2	19	68	11
Barley	0	1	21	61	17
Corn	1	3	21	61	14
Soybeans	1	3	24	62	10
Planting France	June 07 2016 %	June 97 2015 %
Corn	100	100
Barley	100	100
Condition France	Very poor	Poor	Fair	Good	Excellent
Wheat	1	5	15	53	26
Winter barley	2	6	16	55	21
Durum wheat	3	9	20	54	14
Spring barley	0	1	8	67	24
Corn	2	5	17	71	4

@USDA and France AgriMer

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$15/16.00	Up $1,00	X
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Up $1.00	x
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$23/24.00	Up $1.00	X
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Up $1.00	X
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$24/25.00	Up $1.00	X
US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$31/32.00	Up $1.00	X
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$46/47.00	Steady	x
US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch)	$31/32.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$27/28.00	Steady	X
US Gulf China: Panamax	$26/27.00	Steady	x
US PNW South Africa	$31/32.00	Steady	x
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$16/17.00	Steady	X
US PNW China: Panamax	$15/16.00	Steady	x
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$41/42.00	Steady	x
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$48/49.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Down $1.00	x
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Down $1.00	x
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Down $1.00	x
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$23/24.00	Down $1.00	x
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$30/31.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$30/31.00	Down $1.00	x
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$47/48.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Steady	x
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$27/28.00	Up $ 1.00	X
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$28/29.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t	$40/41.00	Steady	x
Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$26/27.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t	$26/27.00	Steady	x
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$18/19.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$20/21.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Europe: 30,000 m/t	$24/25.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t	$37/38.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$21/22.00	Steady	x
Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip	$17.50/18.00	Steady	x
Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip	$18/18.50	Steady	x
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t	$22/23.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to China	$21/22.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t  (3,000 disch)	$23/24.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Down $2.00	x
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$9/10.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Down $2.00	X
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Down $1.00	x
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)	$12/13.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$17/18.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$20/21.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t	$27/28.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$17/18.00	steady	x
Baltic Dry Index	610	Steady	x
Baltic Capesize Index	1006	Up 93	x
Baltic Panamax Index	543	Down 7	x
Baltic Supramax Index	557	Down 17	x
Baltic Handisize Index	327	Down 22	x

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR July/September 2016

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 204/210	x
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 205/208	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 173/175	x
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 185/188	x
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro	USD 186/189	x
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen	USD 187/189	x
Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen	USD 186/188	x
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver	USD 206/211	x
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 169/174	x
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 163/165	x
Barley, feed, Argentina	USD 160/164	x
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 158/163	x
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 195/200	x
Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 196/200	x
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 200/204	x
Corn, CNF Asia, USA #2	USD 228/230	x
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 192/195	x
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 197/200	x
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 193/197	x
Corn, FOB France	USD 210/212	x
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 194/196	x
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD 197>>194	x
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 179/182	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA	USD 485>>455	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 515>>485	x
Soymeal, 46.5 pro, USA CNF Asia	USD 520>>510	x
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 479/484	x
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina	USD 439/444	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 476/480	x
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 435/440	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, India FAQ	No offers	x
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 445/449	x
Soybeans USA #2, CNF Asia	USD 490/498	x
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 442/446	x
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 467/471	X
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 405/415	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD  680/690 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Asia, cont.	USD  750/760 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Meal, CNF Egypt	USD  770/775 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD  155/160 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD  232>>225 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia, cont	USD  267>>260 m/t	x

 

 

 

The corn by product market was pushed higher this week by both the continued rally in soymeal prices and, for corn gluten meal in particular, the super high prices for fishmeal. Of course the fact that corn prices were up a little on the week also helped to move prices higher. DDGS export prices were up by USD 10 to 15 m/t while corn gluten meal was up by closer to USD 50 m/t perhaps more. Corn gluten feed export prices were about unchanged from last week as higher protein prices don't really have much of an effect on CGF.

 

Unless the soymeal rally comes to an end or corn decides to take a sudden dip then there is probably no good reason to expect seriously lower prices in the near term. On the other hand prices should be lower come September as we get into the 2016 harvest and prices normally slip to the low of the year. But September is still a ways away.

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein    Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein    Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein	USD 460/470 m/t CNF Asia  USD 470/480 m/t CNF Asia  USD 470/480 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein	USD 430/440 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 470/480 m/t CNF Asia  USD 520/530 m/t CNF Asia  USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia  USD 790/810 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 500/520 m/t CNF Asia  USD 470/480 m/t CNF Asia  USD 620/640 m/t CNF Asia  USD 750/770 m/t CNF Asia

 

Animal protein prices continued to move higher in export markets this week as prices adjusted to the continuing rally in vegetable proteins. The combination of higher soymeal prices combined with the lack of fishmeal in world markets is doing its best to push prices higher. In Asia it is reported that Indonesian buyers have been shopping quite a bit for MBM  and poultry meal for after Ramadan and that this is keeping OZ/NZ prices firm.

 

In the US export side, the comment was made this week that China has switched a chunk of buying to animal proteins now that fishmeal is in such short supply and so expensive if you can find it.

 

In the US domestic market, animal protein prices were up mainly due to the rally in vegetable protein prices. The comment was made in the Jacobsen report this week that more and more US poultry operations are switching to all vegetable feed formulations and away from all animal proteins but that with the production of US animal proteins increasing there may not be much room for prices to move higher – there could be increased supply in a time of falling demand.  

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

No word as yet on the new fishing quota in Peru but there is word on the new President in Peru and it seems that the Presidential election result was almost down to the last vote. The folks at MSI Ceres are calling a "cliff hanger". At least they didn't seem to have a "hanging chad" problem.

 

On the fishmeal side of things, the feeling seems to be that once the new quota, if any, is announce then the fishing season will probably be extended to later than in the past this since the quota is being set so late in the normal fishing season.

 

As can be seen by the prices below, everything has moved much higher in the last couple of weeks, fueled to a large degree by the uncertainty on what is going to happen with regard to fishing. There is very little fishmeal currently available in world markets and with all protein prices merrily moving higher then there is certainly no good reason for fishmeal prices not to move up.

 

There is still some Southern Peru fishmeal coming to market every week but it sells at once and Northern producers are just not interested in booking future sales when they don't know if they will have anything to sell.

 

It won't be too long now until we hear what the new Peru fishing quota will be but it certainly feels like we have been waiting forever for the quota.

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72% protein	1,880
Danish fishmeal	64% protein	1,530
Peru fishmeal	64% protein	1,700
Chile fishmeal	67% protein	1,750
Iceland fishmeal	70% protein	1,910

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
65% protein	1650/1700 m/t
65/66 protein	1700/1750 m/t
67% protein standard steam	1750/1800 m/t	No offers
67% protein 150 TVN	1800/1820 m/t	No offers
67% protein 120 TVN	1850/1870 m/t	No offers
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1900/1950 m/t	1950/2000
68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN	1950/2000 m/t	2000/2050
Fish oil, crude bulk	2200/2250	1700/1800
Fish oil, crude drums	2350/2400
Fish oil, flexi tank	2450/2500
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2700/2800

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2016 Wayne S. Bacon