Weekly Report - June 04, 2016

 

HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

Monday is the start of the month of Ramadan for Islamic countries of the world. This will mean that the export business to the Middle East and North Africa will be a little less busy and the same for Muslim grain importing countries in Asia. Of course, grain importing nations lined up their imports well in advance of Ramadan. Not that everything stops during Ramadan just that the shorter work day does make things run a little slower. Of course, someone is bound to point out that Ramadan in the summer does not really mean shorter days, as for many, sunset and the end of the daily fast are after the end of the work day. These days, in Egypt, sunset is just before 7PM but most offices will probably close by about 3 PM to allow everyone to get home to their family for Iftar – Iftar is the breaking of the fast and is a time for family and friends.      

 

Now, leaving Ramadan discussions, we get on to the grain business. Soybean and soymeal prices continue to race higher although the soybean market in futures did finish the week on a down day. Down day or not we still see US soybean prices up by about USD 15 m/t in the export market with soymeal up by about USD 10 m/t. According to the end of week trade reports, it has been a frantic time in the futures market for soybeans – less so in the cash side of things – as prices race higher then lower then do it all over again. A number of trade experts have said that June/July is always the most active time for soybean prices since we are coming to the end of the old US crop supplies and the new crop is still much of an unknown factor.

 

Soybean experts are looking for any news from South America on the harvest situation and on possible shipments of soybeans to the US. Everyone also seems to expect more business from China, which will help to keep soybean prices firm.

 

So what do we say about corn, much like soybeans, there was a great deal of ups and downs in corn prices this week but we did end the week with things being about the same as the week before. Most experts don't see any weakness in US corn prices as US corn is very competitive in world markets and demand is good. The sold but unshipped quantity for US corn is now at its highest level since 1987.

 

Argentina has been slow in getting its corn crop from the fields to the ports so that is keeping US demand quite good. One would be a little hard pressed to find a corn expert who was looking for lower prices in the near term. Of course, the WASDE report next week could change that but no one is really expecting any surprises from the USDA for corn.

 

So for now probably steady prices for corn. But then it is the summer and anything can happen to prices as the US crop progresses and the weather has its ups and downs.

 

 

 

Crop planting progress and condition --- USA and France

 

The crop condition of most grain crops in France has dropped of this week, due mainly to the very heavy rain that all of France has had for the month of May. It will be difficult to see any improvement in the winter wheat and barley crop condition in coming days as the harvest is almost upon us and more rain is forecast for early June.

 

Planting USA	May 29 2016 %	May 29 2015 %	Five year Average %
Corn	94	94	92
Sorghum	44	42	51
Soybeans	73	68	66
Spring Wheat	95	95	77
Barley	97	100	88
Condition USA	Very poor	Poor	Fair	Good	Excellent
Winter wheat - %	1	7	29	51	12
Spring wheat	0	2	19	70	9
Barley	0	1	22	60	17
Corn	1	3	24	60	12
Planting France	May 30 2016 %	May 30 2015 %
Corn	98	100
Barley	100	100
Condition France	Very poor	Poor	Fair	Good	Excellent
Wheat	1	4	14	52	29
Winter barley	2	5	15	54	24
Durum wheat	2	10	17	55	15
Spring barley	0	1	6	67	26
Corn	1	4	16	73	6

@USDA and France AgriMer

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$14/15.00	Steady	X
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch)	$20/21.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$22/23.00	Up $1.00	X
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Up $1.00	X
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$23/24.00	Up $1.00	X
US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch)	$30/31.00	Up $1.00	X
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$46/47.00	Steady	x
US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch)	$31/32.00	Up $1.00	X
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$27/28.00	Steady	X
US Gulf China: Panamax	$26/27.00	Steady	X
US PNW South Africa	$31/32.00	Steady	x
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$16/17.00	Steady	X
US PNW China: Panamax	$15/16.00	Steady	X
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$41/42.00	Steady	X
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$48/49.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch)	$23/24.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$29/30.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$30/31.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$31/32.00	Down $1.00	X
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$48/49.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Steady	x
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$26/27.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$27/28.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$22/23.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t	$40/41.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$26/27.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t	$26/27.00	Steady	X
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$18/19.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$20/21.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Europe: 30,000 m/t	$25/26.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t	$37/38.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$21/22.00	Steady	X
Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t	$17.50/18.00	Steady	X
Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t	$18/18.50	Steady	X
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t	$22/23.00	Steady	X
Ukraine to China	$21/22.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t  (3,000 disch)	$23/24.00	Steady	X
Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$9/10.00	Down $1.00	X
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)	$12/13.00	Down $2.00	X
Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$17/18.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$20/21.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t	$27/28.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$17/18.00	steady	x
Baltic Dry Index	610	Up 4	X
Baltic Capesize Index	913	Up 83	X
Baltic Panamax Index	550	Down 32	X
Baltic Supramax Index	574	Down 5	X
Baltic Handisize Index	349	Up 2	x

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR July/September 2016

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 203/206	x
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 209/211	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 174/176	x
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 182/185	x
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro	USD 182/186	x
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen	USD 183/185	x
Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen	USD 182/184	x
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver	USD 200/204	x
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 168/172	x
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 164/167	x
Barley, feed, Argentina	USD 166/169	x
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 163/165	x
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 195/200	x
Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 183/188	x
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 194/198	X
Corn, CNF Asia, USA #2	USD 221/223	X
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 187/189	x
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 191/194	x
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 185/190	X
Corn, FOB France	USD 200/202	X
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 189/192	x
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD 200>>190	X
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 173/177	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA	USD 485>>455	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 515>>485	X
Soymeal, 46.5 pro, USA CNF Asia	USD 520>>490	X
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 475/480	X
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina	USD 439/444	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 468/472	X
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 435/440	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, India FAQ	No offers
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 439/441	X
Soybeans USA #2, CNF Asia	USD 477/478	X
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 430/435	X
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 450/455	X
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 390/400	X
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD  650/660 m/t	X
Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Asia, cont.	USD  700/710 m/t	X
Corn Gluten Meal, CNF Egypt	USD  725/730 m/t	X
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD  160/165 m/t	X
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD  220>>205 m/t	X
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia, cont	USD  257>>251 m/t	X

 

DDGS prices had a strong week everywhere with some reports saying that prices to some parts of Asia were up by as much as USD 25 m/t. Much of the buying interest has been in the nearby which has pushed these prices much higher. Most DDGS exporters had long ago filled their June/July shipping slots, so buyers are paying through the nose to get any available export supplies.

 

On the domestic side for DDGS, the US prices were up by USD 10-15 m/t for most of the US. Experts say that much of the upward pressure in DDGS was related to higher soymeal prices in the interior.

 

Corn gluten feed prices were also up on the week but with interior US prices up more than export levels. Some areas in the US showed CGF up by USD 10 to 15 m/t and these increases, if they hold, will move into the export prices in coming days.

 

Corn gluten meal continues to race higher – well, "race" may be a bit too strong but US domestic price were up by about USD 15 m/t and much of this increase was seen in the export market. Corn gluten meal export prices seem to react to changes quicker than corn gluten feed.  

 

The USDA issued their monthly corn crushing report this week and DDGS production in April was down by about 12% with corn gluten feed production down by 11% and corn gluten meal down by about 8% -- all versus March 2016 – corn usage in crushing was down by about 9%.

 

 

 

USA exports of Corn by-products – January to April 2016 in m/t – major destinations

 

	Corn Gluten Meal	Corn Gluten Feed	Distillers Dried Grains - DDGS
Canada	20,200	8,200	168,700
Chile	8,900
China			676,700
Colombia	22,700	14,700	53,100
Costa Rica			34,400
Denmark	3,200
Egypt	41,500		33,100
El Salvador	4,300		24,200
Guatemala	4,200		14,800
Holland		19,088
Indonesia	78,800	700	142,200
Ireland		131,500	107,300
Israel		38,900	36,900
Japan			83,300
Korea, South			220,100
Malaysia	6,100		16,200
Mexico	9,400	5,200	631,400
Morocco		17,900	42,100
New Zealand			22,000
Philippines			53,500
Portugal		25,800	6,600
Taiwan	8,900		68,200
Thailand	8,900		190,000
Tunisia			9,500
Turkey		35,500	240,400
UK		26,700	58,200
Vietnam	4,700		257,100

USDA GATS Stats

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein    Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein    Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein	USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia  USD 450/460 m/t CNF Asia  USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein	USD 410/430 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 460/470 m/t CNF Asia  USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia  USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia  USD 770/790 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia  USD 450/470 m/t CNF Asia  USD 580/600 m/t CNF Asia  USD 730/760 m/t CNF Asia

 

Asian animal protein markets were reported to be very active this week as buyers want to get their post Ramadan order placed or snap up and goods they can for Ramadan delivery.  Even with demand very good for the week there was little or no change in prices for meat and bone meal. Poultry meal is another story as buyers of fishmeal are moving as much business as they can to poultry meal. Unfortunately, there is just not all that much poultry meal produced – certainly not nearly as much as meat and bone meal.

 

In the US domestic market prices were reasonable steady except for feathermeal which took another dip lower due to heavy supplies and light demand. One of the trade reports (The Jacobsen) pointed out that feathermeal is close to a record low level again soymeal – the lowest since 2004.

 

It also seems that in the US the current supply of animal protein is ahead of demand so no one is calling for a sudden jump in prices. However, if soymeal continues to move higher then MBM will certainly follow along.

 

USA exports of Animal Protein – January to April 2016 – in m/t – major destinations

 

	Meat and Bone meal Incl poultry and pork meal	Feathermeal
Indonesia	44,700	9,100
Canada	20,800	3,500
Chile		6,300
China	20,800	2,200
Philippines	6,700
Holland	2,700
Vietnam	7,300	400
Germany	2,500
Thailand	2,000

USDA GATS Stats

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Compared to grain, fishmeal is very calm, but there is a great deal of expectation in the market and the Peru fishing quota decision will certainly have a major effect on the market and prices. It is said that the preliminary Imarpe report is ready so we might just get some idea of what "might" happen with the quota.

 

Fishing in South, against their 382,000 m/t quota, has been quite good – even with the many mini fishing bans. The total catch is getting close to 80,000 m/t which means 18 to 20,000 m/t of fishmeal being produced. It is reported that the sales of the Southern fishmeal have been quite good with most of the buying interest coming from China, with a little from Chile.

 

The folks talking about the new fishing quota are now talking about a "modest" quota which I read to mean small. No one is talking about any large quota levels – those projections disappeared weeks ago.

 

So, for now, as with the past few weeks, we are just waiting to see how much, if any fishing can be done in Peru.  

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72% protein	1,845
Danish fishmeal	64% protein	1,495
Peru fishmeal	64% protein	1,700
Chile fishmeal	67% protein	1,730
Iceland fishmeal	70% protein	1,860

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
65% protein	1320/1330 m/t
65/66 protein	1340/1360 m/t
67% protein standard steam	1370/1390 m/t	No offers
67% protein 150 TVN	1400/1420 m/t	No offers
67% protein 120 TVN	1500/1520 m/t	No offers
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1550/1570 m/t	1770/1790
68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN	1600/1630 m/t	1800/1830
Fish oil, crude bulk	2200/2250	1800/1900
Fish oil, crude drums	2350/2400
Fish oil, flexi tank	2450/2500
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2700/2800

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2016 Wayne S. Bacon