Weekly Report Sep 03, 2016

 

HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.   Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

A long weekend in the USA, with a holiday on Monday, made for a little quieter week in the grain business. Perhaps everyone was thinking of the three-day weekend or even of their children going back to school on Tuesday.

 

Corn prices changed very little on the week, although export prices from the USGulf were down a little from last week. Corn futures didn't do much. Soybean and soymeal prices continue their slide lower with both being down by USD 7 or so m/t with the biggest drop being in old crop soybeans. Wheat prices too were down on the week as there are more and more reports of record wheat crops almost everywhere except France. Even in France, some experts have been saying that the wheat situation is not as bad as previous reports.

 

Corn futures prices tried to move higher on the week and they did but by very little – most of the small rally was due to short positions being closed before the three-day weekend. No one much wants to be taking risk over a long weekend. The Informa corn yield estimate was published this week and it is just slightly below the USDA estimates but still high enough to give a fantastic corn crop for 2016. There was a report from Farm Futures that some farmers may switch out of corn in 2017 due to low prices but 2017 planting is still months away and the report had no market effect.

 

Soybeans had an up day on Friday but were still lower priced on the week. Informa's soybean yield estimates came in higher than the USDA level but we will all be waiting for the next USDA report on the 12^th to see what they have to say about 2016 soybean crop yields. There is not much that can damage the crop now, so we are probably in for a super soybean crop with little chance of much higher prices ---- that is unless export sales run higher.

 

As with corn, much of the small price rally on Friday was due to the three-day weekend.

 

Crop condition --- USA and France

 

Condition USA Aug 30, 2016	Very poor	Poor	Fair	Good	Excellent
Corn	2	5	18	54	21
Soybeans	2	5	20	55	18
Sorghum	1	5	29	52	13
Condition France Aug 29, 2016	Very poor	Poor	Fair	Good	Excellent
Wheat	12	26	30	29	4
Winter barley	6	22	31	37	5
Durum wheat	16	13	21	40	9
Spring barley	5	24	32	36	3
Corn	4	11	24	53	7

@USDA and France AgriMer

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$14.50/15.50	Steady	X
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$21/22.00	Steady	X
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$20/21.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$22/23.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$33/34.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$48/49.00	Steady	X
US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch)	$33/34.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$27/28.00	Down $2.00	X
US Gulf China: Panamax	$25/26.00	Down $2.00	X
US PNW South Africa	$32/33.00	Up $2.00	x
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$16/17.00	Steady	X
US PNW China: Panamax	$15/16.00	Steady	X
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$43/44.00	Steady	x
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$48/49.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$32/33.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$34/35.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$34/35.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$51/52.00	Down $1.00	X
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Steady	X
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$27/28.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$29/30.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$24/25.00	Up $1.00	X
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$26/27.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t	$41/42.00	Steady	X
Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$27/28.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t	$27/28.00	Steady	X
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$21/22.00	Up $1.00	X
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Up $1.00	X
Brazil to Europe: 30,000 m/t	$25/26.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t	$39/40.00	Up $1.00	X
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$25/26.00	Up $1.00	X
Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip	$19.50/20.00	Up $0.50	X
Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip	$20.00/20.50	Up $0.50	X
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Steady	X
Ukraine to China	$25/26.00	Up $1.00	X
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t  (3,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Steady	X
Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$11/12.00	Up $0.50	X
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t	$12/13.00	Down $1.00	X
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)	$15/16.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$18/19.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$23/24.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t	$31/32.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$17/18.00	Steady	X
Baltic Dry Index	720	No change	x
Baltic Capesize Index	1054	Up 53	x
Baltic Panamax Index	644	Down 43	x
Baltic Supramax Index	721	Up 6	x
Baltic Handisize Index	432	Up 1	x

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR October/December 2016

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 183/190	x
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 200/204	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 161/164	x
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 171/174	x
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro	USD 172/175	x
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen	USD 183/185	x
Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen	No prices	x
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver	USD 190/194	x
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 159/163	x
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 154/157	x
Barley, feed, Argentina	USD 162/166	x
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 152/156	x
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 175/180	x
Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 161/165	x
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 183/185
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 176/179	X
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 184/187	X
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 164/168	x
Corn, FOB France	USD 176/182	x
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 169/172	X
Sorghum, FOB NOLA	USD 167/171	x
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 155/160	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA	USD 370/376	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 395/401	x
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 375/378	X
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina	USD 354/357	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 371/374	X
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 351/354	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, India FAQ	USD 530/540	X
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 394/397	X
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 404/407	X
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 401/405	X
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 400/410	X
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD  615/620 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Meal, CNF Egypt	USD  665/670 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD  145/149 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD  183/188 m/t	x

 

 

The USDA GATS export information below does not show the total picture for corn by-product exports. While the info by country is important it is also important to see the overall picture, such as: total corn gluten feed exports are up by 63% on the year with large increases to Ireland, Portugal, Morocco and Israel. However, overall corn gluten meal exports are down by 6% so far this year perhaps due to higher prices versus other protein alternatives. DDGS exports are down by 11% or about 700,000 m/t with China alone down by 2.6 million m/t but this is offset by very strong growth in shipments to Vietnam, Turkey, South Korea, Thailand, Israel, Morocco and a number of other countries. It is very impressive that the growth in many DDGS market has been able to almost totally offset the severe drop in China's imports. Had China's imports stayed level then US DDGS exports could perhaps been up by 25%.

 

The USDA monthly corn crushing report was out this week and shows that DDGS production is up by about 8% to 2.05 million m/t for July production, due to an increase in ethanol production. Corn gluten meal production is up by 6% to just over 89,000 m/t for July with corn gluten feed production up by 2% to 339,700 m/t for July. 

 

USA exports of corn by-products – January/July 2016 – in m/t – major destinations

 

	Corn Gluten Feed	Corn Gluten Meal	Distillers Dried Grains – DDGS
Canada	17,100	39,200	296,900
Chile		26,800
China			1,698,400
Colombia	30,200	42,300	77,900
Costa Rica			56,800
Egypt		105,900	60,900
Holland	19,100
Indonesia		124,500	215,700
Ireland	183,300		158,300
Israel	100,900		104,200
Japan			172,200
Mexico		17,600	1,097,300
Morocco	50,700		103,900
Pakistan			59,200
Philippines			78,600
Portugal	57,900
South Korea			415,000
Spain			54,700
Taiwan		16,500	126,000
Thailand		16,700	344,800
Turkey	171,000		448,300
UK	27,000		85,400
Vietnam			560,600
Total all exports	671,300	449,200	6,454,800
% change	Up 63.0%	Down 6.0%	Down 11.0%

USDA GATS STATS

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein    Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein    Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein	USD 460/470 m/t CNF Asia  USD 560/570 m/t CNF Asia  USD 460/470 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein	USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia  USD 520/540 m/t CNF Asia  USD 550/560 m/t CNF Asia  USD 790/810 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 500/520 m/t CNF Asia  USD 520/550 m/t CNF Asia  USD 660/670 m/t CNF Asia  USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia

 

Export prices of animal proteins to major markets in Asia are reported to be a little lower this week but there was very little buying, as most serious buyers feel that prices will be moving lower and are holding off a little until the market dips further. Animal protein prices have not dropped as far as vegetable protein prices so most experts see some room for prices to slip lower in coming weeks. There doesn't look to be much, if any, chance of a rally in soymeal prices so that will keep a lid on animal protein prices.

 

In the USA domestic market, supplies of animal proteins are said to be growing as feed producers continues to favor lower prices vegetable protein items. Only pet food grade poultry meal remains steady as the pet food industry does not face the same pressures as the animal feed sector. It is much more difficult for the pet food people to switch to alternate protein sources when prices are not competitive.

 

So, overall we may be seeing lower prices for animal proteins in the export market in the near future.  

 

 

USA exports of animal proteins – January/July 2016 – in m/t – major destinations

 

	Meat and bone meal Includes poultry  and pork meal	Feathermeal
Canada	37,400	8,300
Chile		7,800
China	34,000	3,600
Ecuador	5,600
Germany	9,600
Holland	6,000
Honduras	6,000
Indonesia	68,600	16,400
Mexico	33,800
Philippines	8,400
Vietnam	16,950
Total all exports	237,300	36,900
% change	Up 47.0%	Down 33.0%

USDA GATS STATS

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Two exciting things in the Peru fishmeal business this week: firstly, there was a small rush in current business and unsold fishmeal stocks in Peru are estimated to be less than 9,000 m/t – not much – and secondly, business started for the new season fishmeal with prices down considerably from current levels. According to information from Peru futures prices for the next production could be down between USD 150 and 200 m/t for business booked this week. That is quite a drop in prices!!!!!

 

The existing small fishmeal stock on hand is still being sold at the higher current stock prices with Chile also being at the same level. Most lower prices are not seen until November.

 

According to MSI Ceres in Peru as much as 23% of the expected 2 million m/t quota may have already been sold with more sales expected. Peru fishmeal, at these new lower prices, is very competitive in world markets and there could be another flurry of new production bookings in coming days.

 

Just as a matter of information, the IFFO monthly report shows that overall fishmeal production from major exporting countries is down by 31.3% from 2015 for the first seven months of 2016, with Peru and Iceland showing the largest decreases in production. The total fishmeal production for the major producers is reported to be at 1.1 million m/t.   It is a similar situation with fishoil with production down by 19.2% from 2015 at 228,300 m/t produced worldwide.

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD	Cost per protein unit
Herring fishmeal	72% protein	1,870	25.97
Danish fishmeal	64% protein	1,560	24.38
Peru fishmeal	64% protein	1,600	25.00
Chile fishmeal	67% protein	1,700	25.37
Iceland fishmeal	70% protein	1,905	27.21

 

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
	New crop prices for the Peru November fishing quota	Current Market Prices for Chile
65% protein	1310/1320 m/t
65/66 protein	1330/1340 m/t
67% protein standard steam	1360/1370 m/t	No offers
67% protein 150 TVN	1410/1420 m/t	1620/1640
67% protein 120 TVN	1470/1480 m/t	1670/1680
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1500/1520 m/t	1700/1720
68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN	1550/1600 m/t	1750/1800
Fish oil, crude bulk	2100/2150	1650/1700
Fish oil, crude drums	2250/2300
Fish oil, flexi tank	2350/2400
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2700/2800

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2016 Wayne S. Bacon