Weekly Report - Sept 17, 2016

 

HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.   Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

Looking at the prices in the US, last week finished on an up note on Friday although the grain prices for the week all were a little lower. US corn prices dropped by about USD 2 to 4 m/t while soybeans were down by about USD 5 m/t and soymeal down by USD 4 or 5 m/t. Wheat prices too were down but only by about USD 1 m/t.

 

The prices would have been quite a bit lower expect for the US weather driven price rally on Friday.

 

The weather for the end of the corn crop and the harvest looks to be a little wet as rainfall is expected to be above average. There doesn't seem to be much of a chance that the overall crop will be affected but the harvest in some areas will probably see some rain delays.

 

There have been some reports that the early harvest yields are not as high as had been expected but it is early days yet and things can easily change.

 

Soybeans and soymeal prices were pushed higher by the concerns that rain could delay the harvest and that the limited stocks of old crop soybeans would have to last even longer. This possible delay had buyer out looking for some old crop soybeans to buy and as would be expected the rush to buy pushed prices up.

 

Early reports on soybean harvesting show very good yields in the harvest to date – perhaps we will see average soybean yields continuing above the USDA estimate. At this moment, only the weather forecast and possible harvest delays are keeping soybean/soymeal prices firm.   

 

This week the EU approved eleven GM maize varieties but the news coverage of these approvals was so low key that one had to look closely to find any details of the approvals. With these new approvals could it be that US corn and corn by-products will now have better access to the EU? US corn can certainly compete on price with Black Sea corn but do the latest GM approvals. The EU registry of GM maize approvals still shows 11 types of maize pending for several producers.

      

 

Crop condition --- USA and France

 

Condition USA Sep 12, 2016	Very poor	Poor	Fair	Good	Excellent
Corn	2	5	19	54	20
Soybeans	2	5	20	55	18
Sorghum	1	5	29	51	14
Harvested	Sep 12 2016	Five year average
Corn	5%	7%
Sorghum	26%	27%
Spring Wheat	94%	86%
Barley	95%	92%
Winter wheat planted	6%	7%
Condition France Sep 12, 2016	Very poor	Poor	Fair	Good	Excellent
Spring barley	5	24	32	36	3
Corn	7	14	25	47	7

@USDA and France AgriMer

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$15/16.00	Steady	X
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$20/21.00	Steady	X
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$19/20.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$21/22.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$33/34.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$50/51.00	Up $1.00	X
US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch)	$32/33.00	Down $1.00	X
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$28/29.00	Steady	X
US Gulf China: Panamax	$26/27.00	Down $1.00	X
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t	$35/36.00	Up $1.00	X
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$16/17.00	Steady	X
US PNW China: Panamax	$15/16.00	Steady	X
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$43/44.00	Steady	X
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$48/49.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$32/33.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$34/35.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$34/35.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$51/52.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Steady	X
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$28/29.00	Up $1.00	X
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$30/31.00	Up $1.00	X
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Down $1.00	X
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$26/27.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t	$43/44.00	Up $1.00	X
Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$27/28.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t	$27/28.00	Steady	X
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$22/23.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$24/25.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Europe: 30,000 m/t	$24/25.00	Down $1.00	X
Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t	$37/38.00	Down $2.00	X
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$24/25.00	Down $1.00	X
Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip	$19.00/19.50	Down $0.50	X
Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip	$19.50/20.00	Down $0.50	X
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Steady	X
Ukraine to China	$26/27.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t  (3,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Down $1.00	X
Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$10/11.00	Down $1.00	X
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t	$11/12.00	Down $1.00	X
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Down $1.00	X
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)	$15/16.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$18/19.00	Down $1.00	X
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$23/24.00	Down $1.00	x
Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t	$29/30.00	Down $2.00	X
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$16/17.00	Down $1.00	X
Baltic Dry Index	800	Up 8	x
Baltic Capesize Index	1680	Up 202	x
Baltic Panamax Index	646	Down 9	X
Baltic Supramax Index	660	Down 34	X
Baltic Handisize Index	415	Down 5	x

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR October/December 2016

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 185/189	X
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 199/202	X
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 161/165	X
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 171/174	X
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro	USD 169/172	X
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen	USD 180/182	X
Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen	No prices	x
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver	USD 190/195	X
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 160/164	X
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 151/153	X
Barley, feed, Argentina	USD 162/165	x
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 151/154	x
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 177/181	x
Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 161/166	x
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 180/184	x
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 171/174	X
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 189/192	x
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 164/169	x
Corn, FOB France	USD 178/183	x
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 170/173	x
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD 171/174	x
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 160/165	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA	USD 372/375	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 397/400	X
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 369/373	X
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina	USD 351/353	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 365/370	X
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 344/347	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, India FAQ	USD 535/540	X
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 395/398	X
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 395/400	X
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 400/404	X
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 385/390	X
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD  570/580 m/t	X
Corn Gluten Meal, CNF Egypt	USD  650/660 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD  145/150 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD  178/182 m/t	x

Export prices for vegetable proteins moved a little lower this week and some say that part of this is a result of the bankruptcy of Hanjin Shipping and the effect that this could have on container shipments to Asia – a good chunk of the animal protein business moves in containers.

 

Reports have export DDGS prices dropping by USD 3 to 5 m/t with domestic US prices down by about the same amount. Both corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed prices were lower on the week with CGF down by about USD 5 m/t and CGM down by about USD 10 m/t. Corn gluten export prices may move a little lower next week as the US domestic prices dropped lower than the export prices, so there could be more downside to come.

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein    Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein    Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein	USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia  USD 560/570 m/t CNF Asia  USD 460/470 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein	USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 450/460 m/t CNF Asia  USD 500/520 m/t CNF Asia  USD 550/560 m/t CNF Asia  USD 790/810 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia  USD 500/520 m/t CNF Asia  USD 620/640 m/t CNF Asia  USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia

 

Animal protein prices, especially meat and bone meal, are weaker in most world markets this week as continued weakness in vegetable protein prices continues to pressure the market. However, according to some trade experts, the animal protein market may export not be heading much lower – at least so it seems based on past years of price trends. Overall, the experts are not all decided which way the market will go as some say that producer's stocks are building and that this could still keep prices from moving higher.

 

In the US domestic market, feed producers are still leaning more to lower cost vegetable proteins which is said to be causing animal protein inventories to grow. At least on the US domestic side there doesn't seem to be too much expectation of a price rally in animal proteins – or for any protein items at present.

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Not much new to report from Peru this week except that the next northern fishing season may be a little later than experts had thought with fishing possibly delayed until November but this is still just speculation.

 

There have also been comments in the Peru trade reports that the recent Imarpe exploratory cruise has not provided much usable information for the next season. Experts say that the cruise was done too early in the spawning season.

 

Stocks of fishmeal in Peru are reported to be down to the last few tons and, as has been the case for nearly all the years that I have been in the fishmeal business, every last ounce of fishmeal will be sold.

 

MSI Ceres mentioned in their report this week that construction has begun on the new Chancay port – a USD 480 million project, for the first stage, that should make exports from Peru flow much easier for many products in the regions around Chancay.

 

And finally, the regular guessing contest for the next fishing quota is in full swing with the most suggested fishing level seeming to be at 2 million m/t – but some are saying as high as 2.5 million m/t.

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD	Cost per protein unit
Herring fishmeal	72% protein	1,860	25.83
Danish fishmeal	64% protein	1,530	23.90
Peru fishmeal	64% protein	1,600	25.00
Chile fishmeal	67% protein	1,700	25.37
Iceland fishmeal	70% protein	1,885	26.92

 

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
	New crop prices for the Peru November fishing quota
65% protein	1310/1320 m/t
65/66 protein	1330/1340 m/t
67% protein standard steam	1360/1370 m/t
67% protein 150 TVN	1420/1440 m/t
67% protein 120 TVN	1470/1490 m/t
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1520/1540 m/t	1500/1520
68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN	1570/1590 m/t	1550/1570
Fish oil, crude bulk	2100/2150	1700/1750
Fish oil, crude drums	2250/2300
Fish oil, flexi tank	2350/2400
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2700/2800

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2016 Wayne S. Bacon