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WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT December 31, 2016 --- week 52
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
With all the holidays these days it is not easy to get up to date trade info --- of course, with everyone on holidays who cares about trade info.
Most all US grain prices were up on the week: corn was up by about USD 2 m/t with soybeans up by about the same. Soymeal prices were up by about USD 5 m/t. Both soft and hard red winter wheat were up by about USD 5 m/t.
The major concern in the corn and soybean markets has been the weather in South America with very dry conditions seen in Brazil although Argentina is looking a little better with some rainfall where is has been needed.
In the futures market, the week finished off with a low volume day – not much of a surprise – with the markets closed again on Monday for day trading but will be open for the night trading session.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $16/16.50 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $55/56.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $57/58.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $38/39.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $28/29.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $56/57.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 30,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $18.50/19.00 | Down $0.50 | x |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.00/19.50 | Down $0.50 | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 961 | Up 15 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1385 | Up 337 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 852 | Down 274 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 903 | Down 63 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 597 | Down 3 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR January 2017/March 2017
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD no update | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 196/200 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 178/181 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 180/183 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 180/184 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 172/175 | X |
| Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen | No prices | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 173/176 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 167/171 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 150/154 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 148/154 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 157/161 | X |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 185/190 | X |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 162/165 | X |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 173/175 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 180/183 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 182/185 | X |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 164/168 | X |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 179/182 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 168/172 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 164/167 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 157/160 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 354/357 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 379/382 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 370/373 | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 338/342 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 364/368 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 322/326 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 387/390 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 396/400 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 398/402 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 410/420 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 595/600 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Meal, CNF Egypt | USD 700/710 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 147/150 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 164/167 m/t | x |
As with most everything, information on corn by-products has been difficult to come by this holiday week. According to the USDA the average price of corn gluten meal is up by about USD 5 m/t while corn gluten feed is down by about USD 1 m/t. DDGS domestic prices were variable but overall prices seemed to be up by about USD 5 m/t. Export prices for DDGS were reported to be a little stronger for January with the same applying to CGM.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein | USD 410/430 m/t CNF Asia USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia USD 460/470 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 510/520 m/t CNF Asia USD 770/790 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 460/470 m/t CNF Asia USD 510/520 m/t CNF Asia USD 560/580 m/t CNF Asia USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia |
With all the holidays there is very little news in the animal protein world. Many of the producers are closed for the holiday week and there are not too many buyers in the market. Next week will be more representative as everyone will be back to work. However, according to the Jacobsen Report the USA prices for MBM took a significant jump higher for January on strong demand. We will have to see if this is still true after the holidays.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing in Peru has been very good, at least compared to earlier in the fishing season. The total landed as of the 29th is reported as just a shade under 1.3 million m/t – although one trade report says 1.5 million m/t. So, depending on which trade report you follow, we have between 500,000 and 700,000 m/t to go to reach quota.
Normally the fishing in January is quite poor but we will have to wait and see. The last few days fishing in December certainly weren't poor and perhaps we will see some more days like that in January – several days were at or above 40,000 m/t of catch.
With all the holidays it is difficult to get a good idea on prices but it does seem that overall they are slipping a little lower with only prime and super prime staying reasonably firm. According to the MSI Ceres trade report, much of the recent catch has produced lower quality fishmeal.
The IFFO reports that their RS (responsible supply) standard now covers 118 producers in 16 countries and represents 45 percent of total world output of fishmeal and fishoil. The RS Standard program is an evolving program with version two expected to be implemented during 2017, if the initial public consultation period goes well.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,515 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,410 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,550 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,650 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,500 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1250/1270 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1280/1300 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1330/1350 m/t | 1400/1420 |
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1390/1410 m/t | 1430/1450 |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1460/1480 m/t | 1480/1500 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1510/1540 m/t | 1530/1550 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1560/1580 m/t | 1580/1600 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1800/1850 | 1600/1650 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 1900/1950 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2050/2100 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2600/2700 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2016 Wayne S. Bacon
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