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WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT January 07, 2017
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
This week was only four-day trading week in most countries due to the New Year holiday being celebrated in Monday but there was still enough time to get some excitement in the market. Probably the biggest surprise was the USDA cancelling close to 900,000 m/t of previously reported export soybean sales. This helped to move soybean prices down by USD 6.50 m/t on Friday and overall USD 4 m/t lower on the week. Soymeal was also pushed lower by the news – down USD 5 m/t.
The threat of lower soybean crops in Argentina should have moved prices a little higher but didn't seem to have much effect probably offset by the good weather in Brazil and the healthy crop. However, things in some parts of Brazil do look too dry so there could easily be some upward pressure on soybean prices developing – at least until it rains.
Corn prices were up a little as farmers didn't seem to be inclined to sell much and the demand or corn from the ethanol industry was very strong. Export sales this week were not all that great but the year so far is far ahead of last year.
The next USDA WASDE report is due to the 12th and some experts feel that the corn production number for 2016 will be reduced – probably only slightly.
Overall, the corn market is very quiet with very little news at present to push prices in any particular direction.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $15/15.50 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Corrected | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $54/55.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Corrected | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $18/19.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $17/18.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $46/47.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $55/56.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $36/37.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $54/55.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $40/42.00 | Down $5.00 | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $18.00/18.50 | Down $0.50 | x |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $18.50/19.00 | Down $0.50 | x |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $26/27.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $36/37.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 963 | Up 2 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1658 | Up 273 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 892 | Up 40 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 783 | Down 120 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 508 | Down 89 | X |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR February 2017/April 2017
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 181/184 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 200/203 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 176/180 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 181/184 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 180/184 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 188/192 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 174/178 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 171/174 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 160/162 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 156/159 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 162/165 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 190/195 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 161/165 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 175/179 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 185/188 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 186/189 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 166/169 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 183/186 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 166/169 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 169/173 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 162/165 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 347/355 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 372/380 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 369/374 | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 335/340 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 359/364 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 320/324 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 385/388 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 397/401 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 396/400 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 405/410 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 590/600 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Meal, CNF Egypt | USD 695/700 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 135/140 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 147/150 m/t | x |
The latest USDA export numbers are very encouraging for DDGS – imports by China have dropped from 6.2 million m/t to 2.3 million m/t with only minimal effect on the total DDGS exports – that is quite an accomplishment and certainly shows how price competitive US DDGS are in world markets. Some countries, like Turkey, have almost tripled imports with Asian imports up by almost 100%, excluding China.
DDGS and corn gluten feed prices were lower this week but most reports say that much of the drop was due to slow sales over the past couple of holiday weeks. Experts feel that prices will move higher as buyers get back into the market for Feb/Mar shipments. At USD 150 m/t CNF Nola, DDGS looks to be a tremendous bargain – corn gluten feed is also a bargain but is less of an export product.
Corn gluten meal was also a little lower on the week but this too may only be due to slower, holiday related demand.
USA Exports of corn by-products – January to November 2016 – in m/t - major destinations only
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| Corn Gluten Feed | Corn Gluten Meal | Distillers Dried Grains DDGS |
| Canada | 26,700 | 63,700 | 464,600 |
| Chile |
| 68,500 |
|
| China | 1,000 |
| 2,313,600 Down 63% |
| Colombia | 54,300 | 88,100 | 171,400 |
| Costa Rica | 4,500 |
| 80,900 |
| Egypt |
| 115,100 | 141,400 |
| El Salvador |
| 11,600 | 52,100 |
| Germany | 29,400 |
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| Holland | 19,100 |
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| Indonesia | 2,100 | 192,400 | 325,500 |
| Ireland | 283100 |
| 223,300 |
| Israel | 191,200 |
| 167,600 |
| Japan |
| 16,800 | 292,500 |
| Malaysia |
| 16,500 | 50,500 |
| Mexico | 12,700 | 25,900 | 1,748,600 |
| Morocco | 68,500 | 1,700 | 133,700 |
| New Zealand |
|
| 71,400 |
| Pakistan |
|
| 61,300 |
| Philippines |
|
| 148,600 |
| Portugal | 57,900 |
| 14,300 |
| South Korea |
|
| 827,100 |
| Spain | 5,300 |
| 180,400 |
| Taiwan |
| 29,700 | 205,900 |
| Thailand |
| 30,300 | 690,300 |
| Tunisia |
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| 14,400 |
| Turkey | 237,000 |
| 695,900 |
| UK | 53,200 |
| 142,600 |
| Vietnam |
| 14,300 | 1,175,400 |
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| Total | 1,046,800 | 721,800 | 10,617,900 |
| % change | Up 43% | Down 4% | Down 9% |
USDA GATS
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein | USD 400/410 m/t CNF Asia USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia USD 460/470 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD 400/410 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 510/520 m/t CNF Asia USD 770/790 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 440/460 m/t CNF Asia USD 510/520 m/t CNF Asia USD 560/580 m/t CNF Asia USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia |
USA meat and bone meal export prices moved a little lower this week although there does seem to be a little pressure to move prices higher. Both Australian and New Zealand exporters were looking for higher prices this week as supply was tight but Asian buyers were not in the mood for increased prices.
Domestic animal protein prices in the US were moving a little higher, feathermeal in particular, but some of the price strength may be due to supply shortages caused by all the recent holidays. It is not too likely that animal protein prices will be trending higher over coming days.
The latest US export numbers are shown below and, as usual, Indonesia and the rest of Asia are major destinations for animal proteins. If you take Canada and Mexico out of the numbers, then Asian destinations look like a much more significant share of exports.
USA Exports of animal proteins – January to November 2016 – in m/t - major destinations only
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| Meat and Bone Meal Includes poultry and pork meal | Feathermeal |
| Canada | 59,800 | 16,000 |
| Chile |
| 9,200 |
| China | 50,900 | 6,900 |
| Ecuador | 8,400 |
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| Germany | 14,000 |
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| Holland | 10,800 |
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| Honduras | 9,700 |
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| Indonesia | 118,500 | 25,100 |
| Mexico | 72,300 |
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| Philippines | 8,700 |
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| Thailand | 3,200 |
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| Vietnam | 25,400 | 1,200 |
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| Total | 395,100 | 59,700 |
| % change | Up 49% | Down 27% |
USDA GATS
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing in Peru was not too bad the past week with the total landed against the quota now up to 1.47 million m/t, with a couple of days last week in excess of 30,000 m/t. Landed to date represents just over 340,000 m/t of fishmeal production.
New sales to China are reported to be quite strong this week with an estimate by MSI Ceres of in excess of 300,000 m/t of fishmeal being booked, perhaps as much as 340,000 m/t. If these numbers are correct then there is nothing left to sell at present and very little available before the next season.
Peru fishmeal prices are said to be a little softer but if sales are as forecasted it is difficult to see much weakness left in prices. Difficult to forecast lower prices if almost everything has been sold.
So, we now have just over 500,000 m/t of Peru quota left and with reasonable fishing so far in 2017 some experts are thinking that we may land the full quota --- that would be good since much of it has now been booked.
There is probably not too much room for prices to slip lower, with the longer term trend probably for steady to higher prices as all the supply if used.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,520 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,400 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,550 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,650 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,510 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1250/1270 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1280/1300 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1330/1350 m/t | 1400/1420 |
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1390/1410 m/t | 1430/1450 |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1460/1480 m/t | 1480/1500 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1510/1540 m/t | 1530/1550 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1560/1580 m/t | 1580/1600 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1800/1850 | 1600/1650 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 1900/1950 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2050/2100 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2600/2700 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2017 Wayne S. Bacon
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