Weekly report - Feb 18, 2017

 

HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.   Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz   

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Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

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WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   February 18, 2017

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

It was another week of slipping grain and oilseed prices with soybeans and soymeal being the biggest losers. Soybeans were down by about USD 10 m/t with soymeal following at about USD 5 m/t lower for export. Corn prices were a little lower on the week but we still have the port logistics problems that are keeping the near-term prices at a few dollars premium over shipments a few weeks out. Perhaps it is not really a port logistics problem but more a problem of too much business to load in a short period of time – more of a volume of business problem jacking up export prices a little.

 

A number of trade publications have said that the long weekend in the US has helped to move prices lower as many of the people/funds in the futures market want to be flat for the long weekend due to the possible risk.

 

With soybeans, the ever larger Brazil crop is helping to move prices lower and the reports that the weather in both Brazil and Argentina is getting better for the harvest. Soybean yields in brazil are very good which has made some forecasters raise their estimates of the brazil crop – ah, just what we need: more soybeans.

 

Corn prices in the domestic market in the US were down by about USD 2 m/t which in this day and age is really considered not much of a change. There was some talk that US corn should be lower if Mexico starts buying corn from Argentina and Brazil. As one can see by the prices below the corn price in the Pacific northwest is quite high – this is because the weather and avalanche problems have made it very difficult to get corn to the export elevators and, once it is there, the rains have slowed loading and created a shipping backlog.

 

The USDA long-term import/export projections came out this week and are quite interesting. For US corn exports are forecasted to increase from 48.2 million m/t in 2015/16 to 55.2 mm/t in 2026/27. The biggest increases in exports are by Argentina 20.5 mm/t to 30.0 mm/t and Brazil 16.5 mm/t to 37.9 mm/t by 2026/27. Total world corn imports are forecasted to increase from 120 mm/t to 167 mm/t with the largest increases in imports being in: Egypt, Iran, China, Mexico and Sub-Sahara Africa.

 

The USDA report also shows sorghum exports dropping by 50 percent as imports by China fall to almost nothing from 8.3 million m/t in 2015/16. Total world barley imports are forecasted to be down slightly while long term wheat imports will be up by about 15 percent.

  

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$14.50/15.00	Down $0.50	X
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$22/23.00	Down $1.00	X
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Down $1.00	X
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$23/24.00	Down $1.00	X
US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$23/24.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Up $1.00	X
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$52/53.00	Steady	X
US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$36/37.00	Steady	X
US Gulf China: Panamax	$34/35.00	Steady	X
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t	$39/40.00	Up $1.00	X
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$19/20.00	Steady	X
US PNW China: Panamax	$18/19.00	Steady	X
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$44/45.00	Down $1.00	X
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$51/52.00	Down $1.00	x
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$19/20.00	Down $1.00	x
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch)	$13/14.00	Down $1.00	X
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$33/34.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$18/19.00	Down $1.00	x
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$25/26.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$35/36.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$49/50.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$28/29.00	Up $1.00	X
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$29/30.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$24/25.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$21/22.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t	$40/41.00	Down $2.00	x
Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Down $2.00	x
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$24/25.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t	$19/20.00	New	x
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t	$28/29.00	Steady	X
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$24/25.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$26/27.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Europe: 30,000 m/t	$29/30.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t	$26/27.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t	$38/39.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Up $1.00	x
Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip	$19.00/19.50	Up $1.00	x
Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip	$19.50/20.00	Up $1.00	X
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t	$25/26.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to China:  50,000 m/t	$26/27.00	Up $1.00	X
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t  (3,000 disch)	$16/17.00	Steady	X
Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$17/18.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich)	$18/19.00	Steady	X
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Up $1.00	X
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$20/21.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)	$13/14.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$20/21.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$23/24.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t	$35/36.00	Up $1.00	X
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$19/20.00	Steady	x
Baltic Dry Index	741	Up 39	X
Baltic Capesize Index	739	Up 52	X
Baltic Panamax Index	917	Down 26	x
Baltic Supramax Index	729	Up 57	X
Baltic Handisize Index	391	Up 14	x

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR March 2017/May 2017

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 195>>191	x
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 226>>211	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 181/185	x
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 187/191	x
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro	USD 189/192	x
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen	USD 191/193	x
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver	USD 181/186	x
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 173/177	x
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 164/167	x
Barley, feed, Argentina	USD 165/169	x
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 165/168	x
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 190/195	x
Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 171>>166	x
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 202>>177	x
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 170/174	x
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 185/188	x
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 170/173	x
Corn, FOB France	USD 189/191	x
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 178/181	x
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD 166/169	x
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 160/163	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA	USD 385/388	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 410/413	X
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 384/387	X
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina	USD 362/367	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 375/378	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil	USD 349/353	X
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 402/406	X
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 392/396	X
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 400/404	X
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 397/402	X
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD  590/600 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD  145/150 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD  162/166 m/t	x

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DDGS prices continued higher this week but the weakness in corn and soymeal may put an end to any price rally. It is said that much of the increase in the export prices is logistics related as US ports are very busy with grain exports as are container stuffing facilities.

 

Both corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed had a quiet export week with no change in prices but they too may see some price weakness due to weaker corn and soybean prices and for CGM due to weakening fishmeal prices.

 

DDGS prices in the US domestic market were down by about USD 5 m/t on average while corn gluten feed prices were off by about USD 1 m/t and corn gluten meal was up by about USD 2 m/t – nothing too much exciting in the domestic market.

 

  

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein    Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein    Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein	USD 420/430 m/t CNF Asia  USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia  USD 460/470 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein	USD 420/430 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 460/470 m/t CNF Asia  USD 510/520 m/t CNF Asia  USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia  USD 770/790 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 460/480 m/t CNF Asia  USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia  USD 620/630 m/t CNF Asia  USD 750/780 m/t CNF Asia

 

The trade reports that meat and bone meal prices into China were up by about USD 10 m/t on the week due to quite a bit of after holiday buying. Feathermeal prices were also said to be higher for all the Asian markets – also up by about USD 10 m/t. While the poultry meal prices were steady on the week the trade feels that they too will be moving higher.

 

In the US domestic market, the situation was opposite that of Asia with prices falling on the week and further weakness said to be expected. This domestic weakness should move into the export market if the lower prices are more than just a one-week blip.

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

The latest catch numbers from the south of Peru show the to-date landings at a shade over 50,000 out of the quota of 515,000 m/t – this represents about 12,000 m/t of fishmeal. For now, we have a full fishing ban due to the high juvenile levels.

 

As to the fishmeal business in Peru, the trade reports that futures sales were very, very active – MSI Ceres says that there were "huge sales to China". Estimates are that the presales for next season now stand at about 170,000 m/t, up by about 120,000 m/t of new sales on the week --- and all seeming to be to China as Europe is not in the market as yet. As you can see by the price list below in Germany – Peru and Chile fishmeal is still not price competitive in Europe.

 

As to any spot fishmeal business, with little left to sell in the North and no fishing in the South then there is little or no spot business. All the new business is in fishmeal futures and all for the next season.

 

On the pricing side, prices have slipped a little lower again this week as the new business is being done at lower levels and with an expected quota of at least 2.5 million m/t of catch – 580,000 m/t of fishmeal – there could be some further downward pressure on prices – that is unless the Chinese buy everything before the season starts.

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72% protein	1,420
Danish fishmeal	64% protein	1,350
Peru fishmeal	64% protein	1,350
Chile fishmeal	67% protein	1,400
Iceland fishmeal	70% protein	1,410

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
65% protein	1150/1180 m/t
65/66 protein	1250/1270 m/t
67% protein standard steam	1300/1320 m/t	1330/1350
67% protein 150 TVN	1340/1360 m/t	1380/1400
67% protein 120 TVN	1390/1410 m/t	1430/1450
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1440/1460 m/t	1480/1500
68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN	1490/1510 m/t	1520/1540
Fish oil, crude bulk	1450/1500	1500/1550
Fish oil, crude drums	1550/1600
Fish oil, flexi tank	1700/1750
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	1900/2000

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2017 Wayne S. Bacon