-------------------------
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT May 20, 2017
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Comparing the end of the week prices this week with last week makes it all look very quiet but there was enough activity during the week to make things a little exciting. The week ended with not much happening to corn prices, even though they were up a little on Friday, while both soybeans and soymeal moved lower on the week: USD 4 m/t for beans and USD 6 m/t or so for soymeal. Winter wheat was steady but spring wheat had a nice little USD 4 to 5 m/t price rally.
Most of the trade reports on Friday were saying that the market is waiting to see the first USDA corn crop rating report – there is some speculation that this may be part of next week's report.
There was quite a bit of discussion this week about difficulties in replanting some corn, as expected rain may keep farmers out of the fields this weekend into next week.
There was also some talk about falling US corn export numbers and how this could push corn prices lower in coming days.
There wasn't much else to talk about in the corn market this week as everyone seemed to be quite relaxed.
Soybeans were up on Friday in the futures market in the US but were still down on the week. However, the feeling is that the soybean strength could continue as the increased soybean price in Brazil could just push demand for US bean exports higher – at least that is the thought for the week.
While I don't ever talk much about wheat, it was interesting to read this week that the bear market in wheat could be over and that world demand for quality wheat could lead to higher prices in the export markets. It seems that while there is lots of wheat available there is not the supply of high quality wheat that many international buyers require.
Crop progress and condition --- USA and France
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $14.00/15.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $22/23.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $37/38.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $36/37.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $46/47.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $51/52.00 | Steady | x |
|
|
|
|
|
| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $11/12.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $31/32.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $49/50.00 | Steady | x |
|
|
|
|
|
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $34/35.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $35/36.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $16/17.00 | Steady | x |
|
|
|
|
|
| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Europe: 30,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
|
|
|
|
|
| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19/19.50 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.50/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
|
|
|
|
|
| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $12/13.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $36/37.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
|
|
|
|
|
| Baltic Dry Index | 956 | Down 58 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1668 | Down 57 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 870 | Down 122 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 759 | Down 24 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 502 | Down 7 | x |
|
|
|
|
|
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR June 2017/August 2017
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 182/187 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 212/217 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 178/182 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 182/185 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 185/189 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 185/187 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 177/182 new crop | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 171/174 | x |
|
|
|
|
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 164/166 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 166/170 June/July | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 155/159 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 195/200 | x |
|
|
|
|
| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 163/165 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 173/177 June/July | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 156/160 Aug/Sep | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 161/164 Aug/Sep | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 166/170 | X |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 192/197 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 174/177 | x |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 170/173 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 177/180 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 152/157 | x |
|
|
|
|
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 344/348 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 369/373 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 342/346 | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 314/318 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 336/341 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 323/326 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB India | USD 376/382 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 368/371 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 362/367 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 361/366 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 392/397 | x |
|
|
|
|
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 580/590 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 117/120 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 149/152 m/t | x |
|
|
|
|
According to the USDA US domestic price info, corn by product prices were quite steady on the week. They show no change at all for corn gluten feed prices, corn gluten meal up a little: USD 5 m/t and DDGS mainly unchanged.
The trade reports this week say that export demand for the week was quite low with the only active buyers wanting to buy below current market levels. Looking at both corn gluten feed and DDGS, it is difficult to see prices dropping much lower – as I have mentioned before, at current prices they both look like a bargain.
With fishmeal prices down by about USD 100 m/t, there is the chance that there could be some weakness in the corn gluten meal export business but corn gluten meal can always surprise you with its market price strength…probably since much of it goes into pet food where prices are a little less volatile than the feed business.
There doesn't seem to be much reason to forecast higher prices at present – so enjoy the current low levels.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein | USD 435/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD 430/440 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 480/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia USD 550/560 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/810 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 530/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 560/570 m/t CNF Asia USD 670/680 m/t CNF Asia USD 900/920 m/t CNF Asia |
It seemed like a quiet week in the export animal feed sector – meat and bone meal prices did slide a little into Asia as demand remained a little soft. Buyers seem to have good cover until July.
According to the Jacobsen report, prices for meat and bone meal may be a little too high versus soymeal which is causing buyers to bid low and putting some downward pressure on prices.
Price pressure or not this has just been a slow week for export orders.
The trade shows that export prices from the US, Australia and New Zealand were mainly unchanged on the week.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing in Peru remains very good and the total catch to Friday was up at 1.13 million m/t against the 2.8 million m/t quota. There are about 450 to 500 vessels out fishing every day. The mini fishing bans that are in place don't seem to be slowing the fishing at all.
Trade reports in Peru can't seem to agree on how much fishmeal has been sold with estimates ranging from 300,000 m/t to 400,000 m/t. At the 400,000 m/t, this represents about 1.7 million m/t of catch.
Reports also say that fishmeal producers are busily lining up their export logistics as it takes a whole bunch of containers to ship 400,000 m/t of fishmeal --- export shipments are expected to begin by the end of May or early June.
Also, according to trade reports, there is not much new business around a buyers seem to be well covered for now and sellers are not looking to put much more business on the books ---- time to get shipping.
Now then, what about prices – trade numbers show that current prices are down by about USD 100 to 120 m/t from the end of last season….not surprising with the size of the quota and the fishing success so far.
A report from Rabobank has forecasted that fishmeal prices will trade in the USD 1,200 to 1,700 m/t level over the next five years. Rabobank is also looking for increased world production of fishmeal for the next couple of years --- up about 500,000 m/t per year, this would bring total world fishmeal production up to about 5.4 million m/t per year by 2019. Of course, the weather in Peru and our friend El Nino can certainly kick a hole in those numbers.
Rabobank also says that fishmeal will face stronger competition from other "novel" protein sources like microbial derived protein, insect protein and algae based protein. As they point out, the complications for these alternatives will be scaling up production and balancing amino acid levels and this is in addition to trying to make a price/benefit competitive protein alternative to fishmeal.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,340 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,335 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,300 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,350 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,290 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
|
|
|
|
| 65% protein | 1000/1020 m/t |
|
| 65/66 protein | 1070/1090 m/t |
|
| 67% protein standard steam | 1100/1120 m/t |
|
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1230/1250 m/t | 1290/1310 |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1280/1300 m/t | 1310/1330 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1330/1350 m/t | 1330/1350 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1380/1400 m/t | 1350/1360 |
|
|
|
|
| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1250/1300 | 1150/1200 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 1350/1400 |
|
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1450/1500 |
|
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 1600/1700 |
|
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2017 Wayne S. Bacon
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.