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Corporate Office: Centre of Commerce 200B, 1 Bay St.,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas
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Representation Office:
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St. Remy de Provence, France 13210
Phone: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564
Fax: +33.4.5774.7575 SKYPE:.....bacon39A
WWW:.hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
Email:.. wbacon@hammersmith.biz
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT May 06, 2017
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
It looks like the big news in the US this week was that surprise snowfall in winter wheat country and the flooding in corn and soybean regions. So now the winter wheat crop may be in question while the farmers can't get into the fields to plan corn and beans.
Corn planting is still quite a bit behind last year but is on the average and the weather is said to be drying out and hopefully farmers will be back out planting. All the rain and the flooding has caused serious logistics problems in the US for internal grain shipments and is pushing up grain transport costs.
According to trade reports this week, experts say that any planting of corn after May 15 can result in lower crop yields ---- so we have 10 days to get all the planning done --- come on sunshine.
Soybeans were up by about USD 6 m/t on the week, pushed higher by possible delays to planting and the problems in shipping down the Illinois river, caused by all the rainfall and flooding. Much of the rally was just in soybeans and not in soymeal as transport logistics problems have a much greater effect on soybeans than they do on the soymeal that is manufactured somewhere else, assuming that the beans can get there for crushing.
Most everything was up in prices a little --- soybeans by USD 9 m/t, winter wheat by USD 4 to 6 m/t and corn by perhaps USD 2 m/t.
The USDA WASDE report comes out next week so we are all waiting to see if there will be any May surprises.
| April 30, 2017 % | April 30, 2016 % | Five year average % |
| Crop progress and condition --- USA and France
| Crop progress and condition --- USA and France |
| Planted USA |
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| Corn | 34.0 | 43.0 | 34.0 |
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| Sorghum | 27.0 | 23.0 | 26.0 |
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| Soybeans | 10.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
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| Spring wheat | 31.0 | 52.0 | 46.0 |
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| Spring Barley | 32.0 | 55.0 | 53.0 |
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| Very poor % | Poor % | Fair % | Crop Planting and Condition ---- USA and France Good % | Excellent % | |
| Winter wheat | 3 | 10 | 33 | 45 | 9 |
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| Planted France | May 01, 2017 % | May 01, 2016 % |
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| Corn | 76.0 | 24.0 |
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| Condition France | Very poor % | Poor % | Fair % | Good % | Excellent % |
| Wheat, soft | 0.0 | 5.0 | 19.0 | 61.0 | 14.0 |
| Barley, winter | 1.0 | 9.0 | 23.0 | 56.0 | 12.0 |
| Wheat, hard | 1.0 | 9.0 | 28.0 | 55.0 | 7.0 |
| Barley, spring | 0.0 | 4.0 | 18.0 | 68.0 | 10.0 |
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Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $14.00/15.00 | Down $0.50 | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | adjusted | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $38/39.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $37/38.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $51/52.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $12/13.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $49/50.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $38/39.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $39/40.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $17/18.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19/19.50 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.50/20.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 994 | Down 115 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1480 | Down 299 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1023 | Down 164 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 811 | Down 50 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 523 | Down 36 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR June 2017/August 2017
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 181/188 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 208/212 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 182/186 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 186/190 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 187/191 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 187/189 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 188/193 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 172/176 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 166/169 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 157/163 May/June | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 158/162 |
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| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 205/210 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 160/163 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 173/176 June/July | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 153/158 Aug/Sep | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 158/162 Aug/Sep | x |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 169/173 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 195/198 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 177/181 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 169/173 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 172/175 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 150/154 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 352/355 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 377/380 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 353/357 | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 322/326 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 348/351 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 327/330 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB India | USD 351/355 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 367/373 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 359/362 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 364/369 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 387/391 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 600/605 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 117/122 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 148/152 m/t | X |
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There was very little change in price for corn by-products this week – export prices for DDGS tried to move a little higher but there was not the buying interest to help firm up prices. Both DDGS and corn gluten feed still look like great bargains for export buyers but buyers are just sitting back and, I guess, hoping for lower prices. Actually, there has not been a great deal of change in corn by-product prices in recent weeks…. perhaps up or down a little but no significant trend in any direction.
The US Grains Council report this week said that DDGS prices will remain stable for the next few weeks or until the next exciting news comes along. This situation will probably also be seen for corn gluten feed. However, there is the chance that corn gluten meal prices could weaken depending on how the fishmeal season progresses in Peru and what happens to fishmeal prices. There is a price point at which feed producers would rather use fishmeal than corn gluten meal in some formulations. We may just reach that point if fishmeal prices weaken.
According to the USDA, domestic US prices for corn gluten feed dropped by about USD 3 m/t with corn gluten meal down by about USD 9 m/t and DDGS down USD 3 m/t.
The latest USDA grain crush report was out this week and it shows DDGS production up in March over February by 5% with corn gluten feed production up by 30% and corn gluten meal up by just under 14%. However, up as March 2017 may be, it is still about the same as March 2016.
USA Corn by-product exports – Jan/Mar 2017 – in m/t – major destinations.
|
| Corn Gluten Feed | Corn Gluten Meal
| Distillers Dried Grains DDGS |
| Canada |
| 12,400 | 173,100 |
| Chile |
| 29,000 | 6,100 |
| China |
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| 199,800 |
| Colombia | 19,900 | 25,000 | 45,300 |
| Egypt |
| 9,300 | 28,500 |
| Indonesia |
| 64,800 | 153,900 |
| Ireland | 48,900 |
| 109,000 |
| Israel | 42,700 | 5,200 | 81,500 |
| Japan |
| 1,800 | 133,800 |
| Malaysia |
| 3,800 | 21,800 |
| Mexico | 2,700 | 7,400 | 604,200 |
| Morocco | 10,400 |
| 54,300 |
| New Zealand |
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| 47,800 |
| Philippines |
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| 43,500 |
| Portugal | 4,900 |
| 16,000 |
| Saudi Arabia |
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| 25,200 |
| South Korea |
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| 233,400 |
| Spain | 5,400 |
| 120,600 |
| Taiwan |
| 7,900 | 61,100 |
| Thailand |
| 18,900 | 195,400 |
| Turkey | 50,600 |
| 470,700 |
| UK |
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| 74,600 |
| Vietnam |
| 2,900 | 2,000 |
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| Total exports | 186,000 | 200,500 | 3,037,500 |
@USDA GATS
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein | USD 435/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD 430/440 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 480/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia USD 550/560 m/t CNF Asia USD 790/800 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 540/560 m/t CNF Asia USD 550/570 m/t CNF Asia USD 670/680 m/t CNF Asia USD 875/885 m/t CNF Asia |
It is reported in the trade that there is still very good demand for animal proteins in Asia but everyone seems to feel that the demand will drop off shortly and that export prices could drift lower. There has been some comment that the new fishing season in Peru could bring lower fishmeal prices and that some of the animal protein business will go to new season fishmeal from Peru.
Australia and New Zealand prices are said to be steady to a little higher while most US export prices are steady on the week…although there was some upward pressure on poultry meal prices as buyers were busy in the export market.
USA domestic prices drifted a little lower on the week which was mainly due to very good available meat and bone meal supplies. However, some are suggesting that feathermeal prices could inch higher while MBM prices inch lower.
USA exports of animal proteins and feathermeal – Jan/Mar 2017 – in m/t – major destinations
|
| Meat and Bone meal -- includes pork and poultry meal | Feathermeal |
| Indonesia | 43,100 | 7,400 |
| Mexico | 40,600 |
|
| Canada | 16,400 | 2,200 |
| Chile |
| 1,700 |
| China | 13,000 | 3,300 |
| Vietnam | 7,100 |
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| Germany | 3,900 |
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| Ecuador | 2,100 |
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| Total exports | 135,700 | 15,100 |
@USDA GATS
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing in the northern area of Peru has been coming along very nicely with the catch this week averaging out at about 48,000 m/t per day, which is good for about 12,000 m/t of fishmeal per day. The total catch to May 04 is reported as 527,000 m/t.
Nothing in the way of trade reports this week for fishmeal as most of the senior people were in Europe for a couple of trade related shows/conferences. We won't know until next week if there was a whole pile of fishmeal business booked at the IFFO meeting in Barcelona. Had I gone to Barcelona I probably would have had some news to pass on but these days the minimal amount of fishmeal business that I am doing does not justify the travel and conference expense….ah well, c'est la vie.
There was a news report this week that the fishmeal/fishoil business will grow by an average of 8.5% over the next five years with the total market value reaching USD 22.2 billion in 2022. And then there was the item from the IFFO that say there is about 15 million m/t of "unfulfilled feed potential" for fisheries by-product industry, mainly for fishmeal and fishoil. The IFFO report says that 20 million tons of fish-based raw materials are used/processed every year for fishmeal and fishoil but that the total raw materials that could be used is closer to 35 million m/t. The IFFO feels that there is up to 15 million of currently available raw materials that are not being used or not being used correctly
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,320 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,330 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,300 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,350 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,280 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1100/1120 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1170/1190 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1220/1240 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1370/1390 m/t | 1350/1370 |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1420/1440 m/t | 1400/1420 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1450/1470 m/t | 1440/1460 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1480/1500 m/t | 1470/1490 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1400/1450 | 1250/1300 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 1500/1550 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1600/1650 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 1700/1800 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2017 Wayne S. Bacon
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