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WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT October 15, 2017
A day late with this week's report as I am just back from the European Commodities Exchange in Brussels. As usual, it was 2,000+ commodity people all trying to meet everyone they know.
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Needless to say, the biggest news in the US grain and oilseed markets this week was the latest USDA WASDE report (WASDE is: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates).
Soybeans had a slightly bullish report this week due to a lowering of the USDA estimated yield levels for soybeans – not much of a lowering but enough to push soybean prices up by about USD 10 to 12 m/t and soymeal by USD 10 to 11 m/t by the end of the week. Also lending some strength to soybean prices was the slowing of the US harvest and some concerns over the next Brazil crop. Also, the commodity funds are reducing their soybean short positions which will move futures prices higher. Soybeans did reach the level of USD 10 bushel on Friday and some feel that prices can move higher. Also, US farmers may feel that USD 10 bushel is quite a good level for them to be selling their beans.
Corn prices were a tad higher after a neutral USDA report and many experts don't seem to feel that corn prices have much of a chance to move higher in the near term. While the harvest in the US is not as far along as some wanted, the US farmer can catch up very, very quickly.
Corn futures volumes were lower on Friday after a crazy day for volume on Thursday and it looked like corn speculators were busily increasing their short positions in corn. Lower ethanol production and a speed up in the harvest may just put a little weakness in the corn market for next week. There certainly doesn't seem to be any reason today to expect corn prices to rally higher.
Wheat prices were up a little on the week but for no good reason other than following soybeans. Experts seem to feel that US wheat is now very competitive in world markets and should be able to get back a little business from Russia – especially for lower protein hard red winter wheat. As with corn, the futures speculators have increased their short positions on wheat.
Crop progress and condition --- USA and France
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $17.50/18.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $39/40.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $39/40.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $42/43.00 | up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $41/42.00 | up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $46/47.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $42/43.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $12/13.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $40/41.00 | up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $41/42.00 | up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $35/36.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20.00/20.50 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20.50/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $11/12.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $47/48.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $12/13.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Yemen: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1485 | Up 80 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 2871 | Down 58 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1606 | Up 200 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 1069 | Up 98 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 649 | Up 39 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR October 2017/December 2017
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 194/197 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein -NOLA | USD 233/237 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 183/188 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 189/193 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 194/197 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 193/196 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 185/190 new crop Dec | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 175/179 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD no info | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 184/188 new crop Dec | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 187/190 | X |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 220/225 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 157/160 | X |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 166/171 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 147/151 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 155/159 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 155/159 | X |
| Corn, FOB France | USD no info | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 168/172 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 162/166 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 186/192 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 163/167 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 367/371 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 392/396 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 367/371 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 335/338 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 364/369 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 327/331 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB India | USD 425/431 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 386/391 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 387/391 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 392/396 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 384/388 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 570/575 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 140/143 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 175/179 m/t | x |
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Not much happened to corn by-product prices this week although there were some reports that DDGS prices were up by about USD 2 to 3 m/t for export after the WASDE report. Prices for most corn by-products had been down a little on the week and even though the WASDE was not bullish for corn there will probably be strength in the by-products this coming week as soymeal prices have moved higher.
Looking at the USDA average prices (also issued before the WASDE) it shows no change in corn gluten feed prices, a very small drop in corn gluten meal prices and DDGS prices being largely unchanged from last week.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50% protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60% protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80% protein | USD no prices m/t CNF Asia USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD no prices m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 425/435 m/t CNF Asia USD 470/480 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/820 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 470/480 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 650/660 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/810 m/t CNF Asia |
Export business for animal proteins from the US was quiet again this week with little change in prices prior to the USDA WASDE report. The rally in soybeans/soymeal prices after the report could lead to higher prices for animal proteins next week. However, demand in main markets in Asia has been quite low and this could put a cap on any possible price increases in the export markets.
According to this week's Jacobsen Report comments on animal proteins (written prior to the WASDE) large stocks of MBM in Indonesia are slowing new orders and buyers are looking to buy well below current market prices. Of course, this could change with the bullish WASDE report and the rally that has been seen in soymeal prices.
USA domestic prices also moved lower this week also prior to the WASDE report.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Reports from Peru say that sales to China for the next season are continuing but at quite a low volume level as neither buyers nor sellers seem to want to be too aggressive as yet. Sellers are hoping for slightly higher prices than those show below while buyers, as is to be expected, are bidding well below. Fishmeal prices have been steady to a little higher with no pre-fishing season weakness seen at all.
According to the MSI Ceres report this week the fishmeal pre-sales are probably up around 115,000 m/t and probably mostly to China. China's 2017 fishmeal imports are expected to be a little higher than previous forecasts, up to 1.55 million m/t for the year...
The feeling on the next fishing season in Peru is still centered on mid to end November with the usual amount of speculation on exactly what the new fishing quota will be.
The IFFO will be holding its annual conference in Washington DC on October 23 to 25, 2017. It is understood that all the major fishmeal/fishoil people will be in attendance.
It was reported this week that US fishmeal producer Omega Proteins has been bought by Canada's Cooke Aquaculture. Cooke is mainly a fish farming and seafood company while Omega is a producer of fishmeal and fishoil from menhaden fish, primarily in the US.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,560 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,380 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,375 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,425 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,590 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1150/1160 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1190/1200 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1240/1250 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1340/1350 m/t | 1360/1380 |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1380/1390 m/t | 1380/1400 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1420/1430 m/t | 1400/1420 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1470/1480 m/t | 1460/1480 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1550/1600 | 1350/1400 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 1650/1700 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1750/1800 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 1900/2000 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2017 Wayne S. Bacon
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