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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz
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Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT October 07, 2017
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Once again this week, we had a very quiet time in the grain business. Only soymeal prices showed much of a change and moved about USD 5 m/t higher. Corn, soybeans and wheat prices all ended the week within about USD 1 of where they started the week.
Prices tried to move higher as the week ended with concerns over harvest delays that might be caused by rainfall in large areas of the US Midwest. Of course, with the new USDA WASDE report and the Crop Progress report coming up next week many people were just sitting back and waiting to see what will happen.
According to trade experts the new WASDE will show very slightly reduced corn yields which could give a very minor drop in the total corn crop --- but then they are also projecting lower export sales which could offset a small yield drop.
The trade export estimates for soybean yields were not changed from the USDA numbers. And, looking at Brazil it is expected that their 2017/18 soybean production may be just a very little bit lower than earlier estimates --- not enough affect market prices.
On the wheat side of things, the experts feel that wheat stocks will be a little higher than the USDA's last numbers. Higher international prices, mainly from Russia, did help to support US wheat prices a little.
All will be revealed next week with the latest USDA WASDE report.
Crop progress and condition --- USA and France
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $16.50/17.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $39/40.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $22/23.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $46/47.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $12/13.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $39/40.00 | up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $40/41.00 | up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20.00/20.50 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20.50/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $11/12.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $14/15.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $47/48.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $12/13.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Yemen: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1405 | Up 49 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 2929 | Up 191 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1406 | Up 98 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 971 | Down 50 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 610 | Down 6 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR October 2017/December 2017
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 194/198 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein -NOLA | USD 230/234 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 184/188 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 188/193 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 191/196 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 192/194 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 183/189 new crop Dec | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 175/179 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 187/190 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 184/188 new crop Dec | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 184/189 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 220/225 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 159/163 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 165/169 Nov/Dec | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 150/156 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 154/159 | x |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 153/158 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 179/183 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 165/170 | x |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 159/164 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 187/193 Nov/Dec | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 159/164 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 353/357 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 378/382 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 357/361 | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 326/331 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 356/359 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 316/319 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB India | USD 429/432 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 376/381 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 375/380 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 382/386 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 378/382 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 575/580 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 142/145 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 180/184 m/t | X |
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There was very little change in prices this week for corn by-products – all the expected new demand from buyers in Vietnam has not developed as everyone had been hoping and then, with China on holidays, all those possible buyers are out of the market (not that China is a major market these days for corn by-products but there are lots of Chinese buyers in lots of countries, not just in China).
According to the USDA average price calculations, corn gluten feed prices are steady as are corn gluten meal prices while domestic DDGS prices could be down by USD 2 m/t.
The USDA crushing report issued this week shows that DDGS production was up by about 7% in August versus July to 2.1 million m/t with corn gluten feed up by 12% to 367,000 m/t and corn gluten meal up by 9% to 93,000 m/t.
USA corn by-product exports – January to August 2017 – in m/t
Major destinations
| Destination | Distillers Dried Grains DDGS
| Corn Gluten Meal | Corn Gluten Feed |
| Bangladesh | 66,100 |
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| Canada | 490,400 | 36,400 |
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| Chile | 18,500 | 89,600 |
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| China | 329,800 |
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| Colombia | 138,500 | 60,300 | 27,600 |
| Costa Rica | 60,000 |
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| Egypt | 84,700 | 65,500 | 16,900 |
| Indonesia | 400,900 | 172,500 |
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| Ireland | 210,700 |
| 212,300 |
| Israel | 198,000 |
| 143,500 |
| Japan | 321,600 | 3,400 |
|
| Malaysia | 54,400 | 9,900 |
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| Mexico | 1,451,100 | 18,500 | 30,900 |
| Morocco | 159,500 |
| 37,400 |
| New Zealand | 106,900 |
| 10,000 |
| Pakistan | 42,500 |
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| Philippines | 89,900 |
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| Portugal | 45,700 |
| 32,100 |
| Saudi Arabia | 48,200 |
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| South Korea | 601,300 |
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| Spain | 229,200 |
| 5,400 |
| Taiwan | 179,800 | 21,300 |
|
| Thailand | 456,800 | 31,200 |
|
| Turkey | 1,091,500 |
| 154,800 |
| UK | 146,500 |
| 29,400 |
@USDA-FAS
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50% protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60% protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80% protein | USD no prices m/t CNF Asia USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD no prices m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 425/435 m/t CNF Asia USD 470/480 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/820 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 470/480 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 650/660 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/810 m/t CNF Asia |
With China closed this week for holidays, the export business slowed down quite a bit. Prices in Asia continue to move lower this week with some trader reports saying that meat and bone meal can be bought by the Indonesian importers for as low as USD 420 m/t. Reports also say the MBM stocks in Indonesia are building which will limit new business. Major buyers have been scooping up the low prices but this is expected to end shortly as supplies mount.
The trade also says that domestic MBM prices in Australia and New Zealand were lower which is helping to move some export product. But OZ, NZ and US are still too expensive versus the very low cost material that has been seen from Europe.
US domestic markets are also lower with MBM down by USD 20 to 30 m/t and feathermeal prices quite weak.
The Jacobsen Report was saying that feed producers are trying to work their existing, higher priced animal protein stocks lower so that the can take advantage of the current low prices before they move higher. Of course, if US buyers all jump in the market then prices will rally higher.
USA animal protein exports – January to August 2017 – in m/t
Major destinations
| Destination | Meat and bone meal Including pork and poultry meal | Feathermeal |
| Canada | 44,800 | 12,400 |
| Cambodia | 3,700 |
|
| Chile |
| 6,900 |
| China | 29,500 | 11,500 |
| Ecuador | 5,400 |
|
| Germany | 3,900 |
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| Indonesia | 105,800 | 20,100 |
| Malaysia | 3,800 |
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| Mexico | 347,800 |
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| Peru | 3,800 |
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| Thailand | 9,900 |
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| Vietnam | 18,800 |
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| Total all exports | 589,400 | 52,400 |
@USDA-FAS
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Holidays in China have reduced the customer interest even more – business was quiet before hard to imagine that it could get even quieter – but it did.
According to trade reports, most of the Peru fishmeal sold in previous weeks has now almost all shipped – even shipments to China are dropping of as all the producers/exporters have caught up with the backlog of shipments.
Some early estimates have Peru's fishmeal exports to the end of September at just under 1 million m/t with almost 800,000 m/t going to China --- China certainly dominates the fishmeal business.
Nothing new to report on the Imarpe exploratory voyages or the new Peru fishing quota -- a nice quiet week, lots of time to repaint the office.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,560 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,385 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,375 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,425 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,590 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1100/1120 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1150/1170 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1200/1220 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1300/1320 m/t | 1360/1380 |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1350/1370 m/t | 1380/1400 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1400/1420 m/t | 1400/1420 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1450/1470 m/t | 1460/1480 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1500/1550 | 1300/1350 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 1600/1650 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1700/1750 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 1900/2000 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2017 Wayne S. Bacon
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