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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroUp@hammersmith.biz
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3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT June 16, 2018
There is nothing like some weakness in the market to get everyone excited and this week was certainly one for falling prices. Corn was down by about USD 6 m/t with soybeans down by USD 2- to 24 m/t, soymeal down by about USD 18 to 20 m/t, winter wheat and spring wheat both down by about USD 8 m/t --- everything was down.
Other than the effect of the trade situation with the US and almost everyone, grain/oilseed markets moved lower on good US weather with decent rainfall in the forecast – there is nothing like some good weather during the growing season to help move prices lower.
Experts were saying that US corn prices moved lower mainly due to the drop in soybean prices as futures traders just sold everything in sight. The trade restriction with China will have no effect on US corn exports as China doesn't import any US corn and with there being less and less corn available in the Black Sea it looks like US corn will be the corn/maize of choice for now for many destinations. Some experts are saying that US corn prices could be at or close to the bottom and they don't see much room for lower prices in coming days. If you factor in the problems with corn crops in the Ukraine and parts of Europe, then one can see why the experts feel that corn prices should soon be moving higher.
The US/China situation is having a major effect on US soybean prices and we now see soybeans at their lowest price level in close to a year. With the US putting tariffs on USD 50 billion in Chinese goods and China adding tariffs to 545 US items, including soybeans – then the trade situation is very murky for the moment.
These days, soybeans and soymeal are quite a bargain and international buyers are certainly taking advantage of the lower prices. No one is much even talking about the US weather just all talk of China and what will happen.
US wheat is another grain that is not affected by the China situation, but wheat prices were still lower on the week as futures traders were just getting rid of their long positions in almost everything. About the only factor that should affect wheat is the longer term US weather and for now it looks to be quite good, so probably no immediate reason for a price rally in US wheat.
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Crop Situation and Condition – USA and France
| France | Very poor % | Poor % | Fair % | Good % | Very Good % |
| Condition |
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| Wheat - soft | 1 | 7 | 17 | 68 | 8 |
| Wheat - hard | 0 | 7 | 20 | 70 | 2 |
| Barley, winter | 1 | 8 | 17 | 68 | 6 |
| Barley, spring | 1 | 5 | 17 | 74 | 3 |
| Corn | 0 | 6 | 20 | 69 | 5 |
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| USA
| Very poor % | Poor % | Fair % | Good % | Very Good % |
| Condition |
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| Wheat, winter | 15 | 20 | 27 | 30 | 8 |
| Wheat, spring | 1 | 3 | 26 | 61 | 9 |
| Corn | 1 | 3 | 19 | 59 | 18 |
| Sorghum | 4 | 10 | 36 | 46 | 4 |
| Soybeans | 1 | 3 | 22 | 60 | 14 |
| Barley | 0 | 1 | 16 | 74 | 9 |
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| Harvested | This week % | Last week % | This week 2017 | Average 2013/17 |
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| Wheat, winter | 14 | 5 | 16 | 10 |
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| Planted | This week % | Last week % | This week 2017 % | Average 2013/17 % |
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| Sorghum | 80 | 61 | 69 | 68 |
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| Soybeans | 93 | 87 | 91 | 85 |
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Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Up $1.0 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $44/45.00 | down $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $39/40.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.50/20.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $21.50/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Turkey: coaster (1,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $16/17.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $12/13.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Yemen: 50,000 m/t | No info |
| X |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1445 | Up 54 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 2223 | Up 72 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1495 | Up 77 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 1091 | Up 16 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 593 | Up 9 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR July 2018/September 2018
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 215/218 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein -NOLA | USD 241/245 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 187/191 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 201/204 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 196/199 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 209/213 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD no prices | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 190/193 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 193/196 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 178/181 Aug/Sep | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 191/194 | X |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 220/225 | x |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 169/172 | x |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 187/190 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, Upriver | USD 175/178 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 176/181 | x |
| Corn, FOB France - Atlantic | USD 198/202 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 201/204 | x |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 199/203 | x |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 184/187 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 170/174 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 185/190 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 401/405 July/Sept | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 426/430 July/Sept | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 412/415 | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 376/380 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 415/418 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 376/383 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 359/364 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 372/375 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 372/376 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD no prices | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 590>>580 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 175>>168 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 240>>234 July/Sep | x |
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All corn by-product prices were lower this week as the market followed corn prices down. Depending who you were talking to prices were USD 7 to 12 m/t lower. DDGS for export has slipped lower by perhaps as much as USD 10 m/t with corn gluten feed also down by about USD 10 m/t for export – corn gluten meal was even weaker with prices out a few weeks down by about USD 20 m/t.
Spot prices in the US were not down as much as August prices but there was still USD 7 to 10 m/t weakness in all spot prices.
The USDA average domestic price report had corn gluten feed down by about USD 5 m/t with corn gluten meal down by USD 7 m/t and DDGS down by USD 8 to 10 m/t.
This week has certainly looked like a buying opportunity for corn by-products.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 400/410 m/t CNF Asia USD 450/460 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 850/870 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 460/480 m/t CNF Asia USD 440/460 to Indonesia USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia USD 870/900 m/t CNF Asia |
Meat and bone meal prices into Asia were steady to a little lower this week as the drop in soymeal prices didn't seem to move into the market as yet. Also, this week marked the end of Ramadan and the beginning of the Eid Al-Fitr post Ramadan holidays, so many Asian buyers were probably out of the market and won't be back in until midweek or so.
In the US, lower vegetable protein prices in the country are making animal protein producers look more to the export market for some business and a little higher price. US feed producers are able to quickly switch between protein items – this week they were buying veg protein at much lower prices that last week - which does tend to make the export market a little more attractive for longer term business – price changed tend to come a little more slowly in the export business.
According to the Jacobsen report, more and more US animal protein is moving into the export market as domestic US prices are just not too interesting to producers.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The total fish catch in Peru is bumping against 3.15 million m/t with the full quota well within reach and everyone is now starting to talk about the next fishing season.
Fishmeal prices have moved higher this week as everyone can now see how much fishmeal there will be and how little is going to be left unsold. As mentioned last week, there is a good few weeks until the next fishing and not a large amount of fishmeal to cover the period – so naturally, prices move higher.
Chinese buyers are reported to be back in the market in Peru, trying to make sure that they are fully covered up to the end of 2018 or into early 2019 – that means full coverage for at least six months.
There were comments in the trade this week that the higher grades of Peru fishmeal are in quite short supply so we could see a widening of the price spread for the higher grades.
The latest IFFO number show that total world fishmeal production (at least for the major producers) is up by about 27% with Peru production up by close to 52%. Total production reported by IFFO stands at 1.5 million m/t for 2018 to the end of May versus 1.18 mm/t last year.
Also with the IFFO, Petter Martin Johannessen, formerly of Cargill Aqua, will become the new director general on the retirement of Andrew Mallison in September 2018. Mr. Johannessen will also be acting as executive director of the Global Aquaculture Alliance.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,690 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,520 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,485 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,535 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,670 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1270/1290 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1300/1320 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1340/1360 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1420/1440 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1470/1490 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1520/1540 m/t | 1550/1570 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1570/1590 m/t | 1580/1600 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1300/1350 | 1250/1300 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 1400/1450 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1500/1550 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 1650/1700 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2018 Wayne S. Bacon
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