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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroUp@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT June 23, 2018
I was in London this week for the International Grains Council Conference and the gala GAFTA dinner – a very busy three days but great to see many folks that I only see very rarely. The GAFTA dinner is also about the only time in the year when I get to get all duded up in my tuxedo.
So, wheat do we see with US grain and oilseed prices this week --- not much change for corn prices, only down by a dollar or two m/t of the week. The farmers don't seem to be selling much corn which is keeping the basis up while the futures slip a little – resulting in almost no change in cash prices.
The long-term weather forecast for US corn areas is not all that great with above average temperatures and below average rainfall in some areas so there is the chance that corn prices could make a little move higher.
Soybean prices continued to be weak and were down by another USD 5 to 7 m/t --- still due mainly to the US/China trade situation. On the futures side of things, the speculators were increasing their short positions in soybeans, so they are looking for lower prices. However, soybeans and soymeal futures did rally higher on Friday but were still lower on the week.
US soybeans are at as much as a USD 15 m/t discount to South American soybeans, so any buying interest out there is mainly for US export soybeans (except China).
As has been the usual pattern, US wheat prices were lower on the week. Some trade reports say that most of the selling in the futures market was computer selling as the market dipped a little and set off all kinds of sell stops. There didn't seem to be any fundamental reason for wheat prices to be weak. Hard red wine wheat ended up down by about USD 10 m/t with spring wheat down by about USD 7 m/t.
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Crop Situation and Condition – USA and France
| France | Very poor % | Poor % | Fair % | Good % | Very Good % |
| Condition |
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| Wheat - soft | 1 | 7 | 17 | 67 | 8 |
| Wheat - hard | 1 | 9 | 23 | 66 | 2 |
| Barley, winter | 1 | 8 | 17 | 67 | 6 |
| Barley, spring | 1 | 5 | 17 | 74 | 3 |
| Corn | 1 | 7 | 20 | 66 | 6 |
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| USA
| Very poor % | Poor % | Fair % | Good % | Very Good % |
| Condition |
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| Wheat, winter | 15 | 18 | 28 | 30 | 9 |
| Wheat, spring | 1 | 2 | 19 | 64 | 14 |
| Corn | 1 | 3 | 18 | 59 | 19 |
| Sorghum | 3 | 10 | 33 | 51 | 3 |
| Soybeans | 1 | 4 | 22 | 58 | 15 |
| Barley | 1 | 2 | 13 | 72 | 12 |
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| Harvested | This week % | Last week % | This week 2017 | Average 2013/17 |
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| Wheat, winter | 27 | 14 | 26 | 19 |
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| Planted | This week % | Last week % | This week 2017 % | Average 2013/17 % |
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| Sorghum | 89 | 80 | 84 | 82 |
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| Soybeans | 97 | 93 | 95 | 91 |
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Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $43/44.00 | down $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $44/45.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $39/40.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.50/20.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $21.50/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Russia to Turkey: coaster (1,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $16/17.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $12/13.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Yemen: 50,000 m/t | No info |
| x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1341 | Down 104 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 2011 | Down 212 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1355 | Down 140 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 1092 | Up 1 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 593 | No change | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR July 2018/September 2018
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 212/215 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein -NOLA | USD 227/232 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 189/192 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 199/203 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 199/202 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 208/211 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD no prices | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 184/188 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 192/195 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 177/180 Aug/Sep | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 187/190 | X |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 220/225 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 168/171 | x |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 186/189 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, Upriver | USD 171/174 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 174/177 | X |
| Corn, FOB France - Atlantic | USD 192/196 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 200/203 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 198/202 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 183/186 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 170/174 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 190/194 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 397/401 July/Sept | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 422/426 July/Sept | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 402/406 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 372/376 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 403/407 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 374/380 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 355/359 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 373/376 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 369/373 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD no prices | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 585>>575 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 173>>163 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 228>>222 July/Sep | x |
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Everything was lower this week as DDGS prices finally caught up with the recent drop in corn and soymeal prices and we see DDGS down by about USD 10 m/t, perhaps even lower with some sellers.
Both corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed were lower this week too – protein prices were lower all across the market.
However, even though we have seen steadily lower prices, the US Grains Council's weekly report did say that we could be in for a rally -- at least in DDGS prices as DDGS demand has been very good. There is nothing like falling prices to bring on demand that stops falling prices.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 400/410 m/t CNF Asia USD 450/460 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 850/870 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 450/460 m/t CNF Asia USD 440/450 to Indonesia USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia USD 870/900 m/t CNF Asia |
As can be expected, with most grains and oilseeds slipping lower, the price for animal proteins into the major markets in Asia were a little lower this week – perhaps by USD 10 m/t. At least one trade report said that main buyers held quite heavy stock levels so new export business was hard to find. There were also still some holidays in parts of Asia for the Eid after Ramadan --- everyone was back to work by the end of the week, but things were still very quiet in Asia.
US domestic and export prices were steady in the week but the weakness in soymeal prices and the growing inventories of animal protein in the US could push prices lower or, if not lower, keeping them steady. While soymeal prices were steady to a little higher at the end of this week there didn't seem to be any reason to expect higher prices for animal proteins in the near term.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Getting very close to the full quota now with the catch up to just over 3.21 million m/t – looks like only a couple or so more days to finish the quota off.
Some of the trade reports this week were saying that there is actually very little fishmeal unsold with somewhere between 50,000 and 100,000 m/t maximum to be available to cover all business to the next season in November. This estimated low stock level should mean that prices are going to move higher over the next few weeks as the last few buyers fight for whatever is left over.
MSI Ceres mentioned in their report this week that the shipping positions from Peru are all booked into August and that even August may be tight for containers.
Trade reports also show some business being done to Europe --- sales to Europe had been very quiet so far in 2018 so Europe is welcomed back.
Looking at the Peru fishmeal export numbers up to the end of May – China is about 84% of the business and if you add in Vietnam, Japan and Taiwan that gets you up to about 93% of all Peru fishmeal exports – certainly shows you that Peru's market is in Asia.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,645 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,480 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,470 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,520 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,615 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1300/1320 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1330/1350 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1370/1390 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1450/1470 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1500/1520 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1550/1570 m/t | 1600/1620 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1600/1620 m/t | 1620/1640 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1300/1350 | 1270/1300 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 1400/1450 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1500/1550 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 1700/1800 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2018 Wayne S. Bacon
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