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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroUp@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT July 07, 2018
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
The number one topic in most trade reports continues to be the US/China trade problems and the expansion of tariffs by other countries in response to the US's steel and aluminum tariffs. Even Turkey slapped a bunch of tariffs on US imports but luckily did not add anything to grain and corn by-products.
It was also a funny week in the US due to the July 4th holiday coming on Wednesday which seemed to upset the futures market a bit. Nothing like a mid-week holiday to get the futures market all excited.
Corn prices were almost unchanged on the week while soybeans rallied by about USD 5 m/t but would have been down on the week except for the USD 15 m/t rally on Friday – a rally that seemed to just come from nowhere. Soymeal was also up on the week by about USD 7 m/t, but this too was due to a Friday rally of USD 12 m/t.
This week's US Export Sales Report shows that the new EU 25% tariff on corn is having an effect --- 111,000 m/t of US corn sold to Spain has been redirected to Egypt and a 20,500 m/t corn sale to France has also been redirected, probably also to Egypt.
Trade reports say that the soybean/soymeal rally was due to stronger than expected exports in the weekly export sales report. Soybean prices had dropped quite a bit in the past four or five weeks, so a little rally easily turned into a big rally, as the market tried to recapture some of the drop in prices.
We will have to see next week if the soybean/soymeal rally will hold or if the slide lower will reappear.
US wheat prices were also higher on the week with much of the wheat price rally said to be due to reports of poor wheat crops from the EU. US wheat exports are nowhere near the level needed to reach the USDA forecasts, which should be bearish, but the market seems to be able to shrug off weak exports.
Next week we will have the July USDA WASDE report which should set the market price direction for a bit.
Crop Situation and Condition – USA and France
| France | Very poor % | Poor % | Fair % | Good % | Very Good % |
| Condition |
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| Wheat - soft | 1 | 7 | 19 | 66 | 7 |
| Wheat - hard | 3 | 10 | 23 | 63 | 1 |
| Barley, winter | 1 | 9 | 21 | 64 | 5 |
| Barley, spring | 1 | 5 | 17 | 73 | 3 |
| Corn | 1 | 6 | 20 | 68 | 6 |
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| Harvested | This week % | Last week % | This week 2017 |
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| Wheat - soft | 3 | 0 | 5 |
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| Wheat - hard | 7 | 0 | 30 |
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| Barley, winter | 76 | 23 | 56 |
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| Barley, spring | 4 | 0 | 0 |
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| USA
| Very poor % | Poor % | Fair % | Good % | Very Good % |
| Condition |
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| Wheat, winter | 15 | 19 | 29 | 28 | 9 |
| Wheat, spring | 1 | 4 | 18 | 64 | 13 |
| Corn | 2 | 4 | 18 | 55 | 21 |
| Sorghum | 3 | 12 | 32 | 49 | 4 |
| Soybeans | 1 | 5 | 23 | 55 | 16 |
| Barley | 1 | 2 | 13 | 66 | 18 |
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| Harvested | This week % | Last week % | This week 2017 | Average 2013/17 |
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| Wheat, winter | 51 | 41 | 51 | 49 |
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Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $44/45.00 | Steady | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $39/40.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.00/19.50 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20.50/21.00 | Down $0.50 | x |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $25/26.00 | New | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $40/41.00 | Up $7.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $12/13.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Yemen: 50,000 m/t | No info |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1622 | Up 281 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 3086 | Up 1075 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1347 | Up 11 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 999 | Down 93 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 563 | Down 30 | X |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR August 2018/October 2018
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 219/224 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein -NOLA | USD 230/235 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 187/190 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 196/199 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 201/203 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 221/223 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 241/244 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 182/185 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 210/212 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 177/180 Aug/Sep | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 190/193 | X |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 220/225 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 165/167 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 180/186 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, Upriver | USD 164/168 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 172/176 | X |
| Corn, FOB France - Atlantic | USD 205/207 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 177/181 Sep/Oct | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 195/199 | x |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 179/182 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 165/169 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 185/188 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 402/407 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 427/432 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 403/406 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 376/379 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 403/406 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 375/380 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 340/344 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 360/363 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 369/373 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD no prices | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 580>>570 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 170>>160 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 205/209 | x |
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The USDA Grain Crushing report was out this week and shows that corn consumption for crushing is up by about 3 percent over last year (about 91% of the corn used was for fuel production) – DDGS production is at just under 2.0 million m/t for the month of May which is also up by about 3% over 2017. Corn gluten meal production is about steady with last year at 92,500 m/t for May 2018, but corn gluten feed was down by almost 15% to 291,500 m/t of May production.
Most corn by product prices moved lower this week as lower soybean price for most of the week weighed heavily on the market.
Export markets were reported to be quiet this week as buyers are looking forward to lower prices in coming days. However, the very strong rally on Friday in soybean/soymeal futures prices could stall any lower prices if the rally continues into next week.
USA exports of corn by-products – 5 months 2018 – major destinations and selected countries – in m/t
| Country | Distillers Dried Grains DDGS Jan/May 2018 | Corn Gluten Meal
Jan/May 2018 | Corn Gluten Feed
Jan/May 2018 |
| Bangladesh | 57,200 | 2,300 |
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| Burma | 26,900 | 1,300 |
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| Cambodia | 21,500 |
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| Canada | 275,700 | 30,800 |
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| Chile |
| 31,700 |
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| China | 73,800 |
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| Colombia | 88,800 | 41,600 | 9,300 |
| Costa Rica | 35,500 |
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| Denmark |
| 6,600 |
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| Ecuador | 14,800 | 1,900 |
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| Egypt | 69,600 | 57,300 |
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| El Salvador | 37,100 | 1,200 |
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| Guatemala | 20,100 | 4,300 |
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| Honduras | 21,500 | 3,100 |
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| Indonesia | 260,000 | 41,500 | 500 |
| Ireland | 158,000 |
| 176,8400 |
| Israel | 148,700 |
| 117,200 |
| Jamaica | 10,800 |
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| Japan | 180,100 | 1,900 |
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| Malaysia | 28,300 | 8,100 |
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| Mexico | 844,500 | 6,300 | 11,200 |
| Morocco | 62,300 |
| 21,700 |
| New Zealand | 78,700 |
| 10,400 |
| Panama | 9,300 |
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| Peru | 8,500 | 5,600 |
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| Philippines | 59,000 |
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| Portugal | 10,300 |
| 22,200 |
| Saudi Arabia | 2,200 |
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| South Korea | 477,600 |
| 900 |
| Spain | 76,800 |
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| Sri Lanka | 7,900 |
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| Taiwan | 82,300 | 16,100 |
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| Thailand | 420,400 | 12,200 |
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| Tunisia | 22,000 |
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| Turkey | 401,300 |
| 39,800 |
| UK | 62,400 | 1,400 | 21,100 |
| Vietnam | 472,300 | 3,200 |
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@USDA GATS
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 390/400 m/t CNF Asia USD 430/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 850/870 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 400/420 to Indonesia USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia USD 870/900 m/t CNF Asia |
Meat and bone meal prices into major destinations in Asia are trending lower again this week as available supply is very good and lower soymeal prices have been attracting buyers. According to the Jacobsen Report this week, mixed animal, low protein meat and bone meal can be bought for less than USD 300 m/t CNF Asia – this is certainly an attractive price for many buyers.
Most experts seem to feel that the price for MBM will continue to be pushed lower – especially with the uncertainty in the soybean/soymeal export trade due to the US/China trade problems.
While MBM prices are quite weak, poultry meal and feathermeal prices are steady as buying interest from Asia remains quite strong.
USA domestic price for MBM is under pressure and should move lower and perhaps poultry meal too but feathermeal is expected to remain steady.
USA exports of animal protein – 5 months 2018 – major destinations – in m/t
| Destination | Meat and bone meal – includes poultry and pork
Jan/May 2018 | Feathermeal
Jan/May 2018 |
| Burma | 2,900 |
|
| Canada | 23,400 | 5,500 |
| Chile |
| 10,700 |
| China | 18,400 | 18,900 |
| Colombia | 700 |
|
| Ecuador | 6,700 |
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| Germany |
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| Honduras | 2,800 |
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| Indonesia | 66,600 | 11,100 |
| Malaysia | 2,300 |
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| Mexico | 79,200 |
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| Peru | 1,100 |
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| Philippines | 8,800 |
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| Sri Lanka | 1,500 |
|
| Thailand | 6,600 |
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| Vietnam | 24,900 |
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| Total exports | 249,200 | 47,200 |
@USDA GATS
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Not much to report in the way of fishing results from Peru --- total fishmeal production should now be at just over 740,000 m/t. Trade reports are saying that booked sales are now up to 700,000 m/t, which only leaves 40,000 m/t or so for the next 5 months – not much stock.
Shipping of fishmeal from Peru continues in full swing with about 150,000 m/t expected to be shipped in July. Experts say that August export shipments could be just about as high.
Trade reports on fishmeal are full of comments on the USA/China trade situation and the possible effect on Peru's fishmeal exports. Not much that can be affected this season as most everything is sold and about to be shipped. For next season, perhaps problems with the US could switch more China protein business to fishmeal but since China buys almost all the Peru fishmeal now it is difficult to see much change unless China's overall fishmeal consumption increases, and major China buyers try to cover a couple of 100,000 more in Peru for the next fishing season.
If China does look to buy more fishmeal, the additional demand should move prices higher in Oct/Nov/Dec 2018.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,720 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,485 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,475 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,525 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,690 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1300/1320 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1330/1350 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1370/1390 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1450/1470 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1500/1520 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1550/1570 m/t | 1600/1620 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1600/1620 m/t | 1620/1640 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1300/1350 | 1270/1300 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 1400/1450 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1500/1550 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 1700/1800 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2018 Wayne S. Bacon
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