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WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT July 21, 2018
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Hot dry weather in much of the US was a factor in higher prices this week for most grains: corn was up by about USD 5 m/t, soybeans up by USD 11 m/t, winter wheat up by close to USD 7 m/t and spring wheat up by about USD 8 m/t ---- only soymeal seemed to be able to be steady on the week.
Reports this weekend say that much of the strength in corn and soybeans was linked to the rally in wheat prices – a rally that was kicked off by lower wheat production estimates from Europe and the Black Sea.
Some reports also said that there didn't seem to be any reason for corn prices to move lower in coming week so that the longer term trend for corn sill probably be slightly higher. Although, there seem to be more speculator shorts in corn futures market every week – the specs seem to feel that there is still some room to go lower. Of course, if the speculators get a little scared and start covering their shorts then we could see a decent corn price rally.
There were quite a few comments in the trade reports that soybeans too are probably at or close to their bottom for prices. US soybeans are at a very attractive discount to Brazil which should make buyers look very closely at the US (except for Chinese buyers). I guess the question will be, can the alternative buyers make up for the loss of business to China or will we just see lower and lower exports and weaker and weaker soybean prices.
Lots of bullish reports affecting wheat this week as France's wheat crop is expected to drop and Black Sea wheat crops may not be as good as expected and part so Europe, other than France, are also expected to see lower wheat production.
On the futures side of wheat, it looks like most of the important people are now settling in to long positions.
Crop Situation and Condition – USA and France
| France | Very poor % | Poor % | Fair % | Good % | Very Good % |
| Condition |
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| Wheat - soft | 1 | 7 | 20 | 65 | 7 |
| Wheat - hard | 4 | 10 | 24 | 61 | 1 |
| Barley, winter | 1 | 9 | 21 | 64 | 5 |
| Barley, spring | 1 | 5 | 18 | 72 | 3 |
| Corn | 1 | 7 | 21 | 65 | 6 |
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| Harvested | This week % | Last week % | This week 2017 |
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| Wheat - soft | 64 | 20 | 53 |
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| Wheat - hard | 85 | 33 | 86 |
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| Barley, winter | 99 | 92 | 96 |
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| Barley, spring | 31 | 7 | 38 |
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| USA
| Very poor % | Poor % | Fair % | Good % | Very Good % |
| Condition |
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| Wheat, spring | 1 | 3 | 16 | 67 | 13 |
| Corn | 3 | 6 | 19 | 51 | 21 |
| Sorghum | 5 | 12 | 36 | 43 | 4 |
| Soybeans | 2 | 6 | 23 | 53 | 16 |
| Barley | 1 | 2 | 12 | 70 | 15 |
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| Harvested | This week % | Last week % | This week 2017 | Average 2013/17 |
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| Wheat, winter | 74 | 63 | 74 | 71 |
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Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $44/45.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $40/41.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $39/40.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.00/19.50 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20.50/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $30/31.00 | Up $5.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $16/17.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $45/46.00 | Up $5.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $27/28.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $12/13.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1689 | Up 23 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 3205 | Up 47 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1557 | Up 30 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 1023 | Up 28 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 560 | Up 1 | X |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR August 2018/October 2018
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 219/227 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein -NOLA | USD 233/240 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 190/193 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 202/205 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 200/203 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 229/232 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 238/241 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 184/188 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 222/225 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 177/180 Aug/Sep | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 190/193 | X |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 220/225 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 167/169 | x |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 179/184 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, Upriver | USD 164/167 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 172/175 | X |
| Corn, FOB France - Atlantic | USD 205/208 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 177/181 Sep/Oct | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 194/197 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 175/179 Oct/Nov | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 163/166 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 179/181 Aug/Sep | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 391/395 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 416/420 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 413/416 | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 374/378 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 404/407 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 375/379 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 342/346 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 376/380 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 386/390 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD no prices | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 570>>560 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 170>>160 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 207/210 | x |
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Corn prices were up a little this week but this didn't seem to have much effect on corn byproducts as all the byproducts were steady to lower on the week.
Buying interest from major importing markets, especially Asian markets, were very good on this week as buyers seem to be willing to stock up at price levels that may not be going any lower.
It is really going to be a matter of what happens with corn and soybean prices and with business to China that will determine which way prices are going to move.
Looking at markets today there doesn't seem to be much reason to expect a serious rally in prices but some market exports are saying that we must be close to the bottom for market prices – but no one really know for sure.
Buyers are probably safer for now to just buy what they need to cover the near term and watch the market before buying long term positions. But watch closely as the market can turn in a minute.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 370/380 m/t CNF Asia USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 535/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 850/870 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 380/400 to Indonesia USD 640/650 m/t CNF Asia USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia USD 870/900 m/t CNF Asia |
Meat and bone meal prices for Indonesia slipped a little lower again this week as supply seemed to be stronger than demand. The multi-animal MBM from Europe is still dominating the market but reports do say that demand for single animal beef, pork and poultry meal remains good.
The Jacobsen Report this week was saying that "prices should rebound in the near term" but this will be difficult if the supply side stays so full of product.
US and Australian priced for animal proteins were about steady on the week while NZ prices drifted a little lower.
US domestic animal protein prices look to be on the weak side, but much depends on what happens to soymeal prices. At least for meat and bone meal, soymeal always tends to be the price leader.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing in the south of Peru is now up to close to 30,000 m/t of fish landed versus the quota of 535,000 – fishing on the week was about 18,000 m/t -- while the catch in the north, where there is still about 185,000 m/t left on the quota, is still at zero tons for the week.
There was some talk this week about the possibility of increased demand from China as they may switch their US fishmeal buying elsewhere due to the trade situation (some say trade war) between the US and China. Prices CNF China for Peruvian fishmeal are said to have jumped by USD 50 m/t for late 2018 shipment.
Trade reports seem to feel that major buyers will wait a while before buying for the next fishing season – as usual, buyers are hoping for lower prices for the next season production in weeks to come.
The latest Peru fishmeal export number show total shipments to the end of June up to just under 545,000 m/t with 85% going to China and 94 plus % going to destinations in Asia. We all certainly know where the fishmeal market is -----Asia. It makes one wonder why the IFFO meeting is being held in Rome – unless it is just because the Chinese buyers like Italy.
On the side of great enthusiasm – MSI Ceres said this week that "it seems like the recent poor fishing years are behind us" – hopefully they wont live to regret the comment.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,730 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,510 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,480 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,530 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,710 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1300/1320 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1330/1350 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1370/1390 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1450/1470 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1500/1520 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1550/1570 m/t | 1600/1620 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1600/1620 m/t | 1620/1640 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1400/1420 | 1400/1420 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 1470/1480 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1570/1580 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 1700/1800 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2018 Wayne S. Bacon
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