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WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT November 10, 2018
Off to Global Grain in Geneva next week (Nov 13-15) – so if you see me say hello.
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
The USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) report did hold a few surprises this week: increased China corn stocks, lower US corn yields, lower US soybean yields, higher world ending stocks for all corn, soybeans and wheat.
From a US futures point of view there was no change in corn or soybean prices on the week while soymeal slipped lower by about USD 5 m/t and wheat prices move USD 5 to 7 m/t lower.
The report of trade talks between China and the US probably gave soybean prices support as the market hopes for a trade solution. There seem to be some positive rumors on the China situation sneaking out of Washington. The trade also seemed to feel that soybean crop yields will probably be even lower than the USDA numbers in the WASDE and this too help to keep soybean prices from moving lower.
Corn was very quiet on the week. The WASDE didn't seem to have much effect and international reports on corn crops from both France and the Ukraine were quite positive. On the more negative side of things, US corn exports are not up where the USDA is hoping to see them, and this is the time when US corn should own the market in many corn importing countries. With the Ukraine expected to have a very good corn crop, US corn will be back having to fight the Black Sea for business in the Middle East and North Africa.
Wheat price slipped lower mainly due to low exports and worries that very good Black Sea wheat crops will once again make exports tough for US wheat. However, some expert do feel that the USDA is overestimating the wheat export business from some origins – so there is still hope that US wheat exports will hit the USDA target.
As to prices, the next few weeks are the doldrums of the grain market with never too much happening in November and December to get markets too excited. Of course, after saying that, I will probably be proven wrong.
Crop Situation and Condition – USA/France --- reports November 09, 2018
USA
| Very poor % | Poor % | Fair % | Good % | Very Good % |
Condition |
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Winter wheat | 3 | 9 | 37 | 42 | 9 |
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Harvested | This week % | Last week % | This week 2017 | Average 2013/17 |
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Corn | 76 | 63 | 68 | 77 |
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Sorghum | 64 | 53 | 70 | 76 |
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Soybeans | 83 | 72 | 89 | 89 |
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Planted
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Wheat, winter | 84 | 78 | 90 | 90 |
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France
| Very poor % | Poor % | Fair % | Good % | Very Good % |
Condition |
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Corn | 5 | 13 | 24 | 52 | 5 |
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Harvested | This week % | Last week % | This week 2017 |
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Corn | 98 | 96 | 94 |
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Planted | This week % | Last week % | This week 2017 |
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Wheat, winter | 85 | 70 | 87 |
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Barley, winter | 90 | 75 | 95 |
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@ USDA and AgriMer
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $45/46.00 | Steady | x |
US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
US PNW China: Panamax | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45/46.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
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France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $14/15.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
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Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.00/19.50 | Steady | X |
Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.50/20.00 | Steady | X |
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
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Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $30/32.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $17/18.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $46/47.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $31/32.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $11/12.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 1147 | Down 310 | X |
Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 1461 | Down 1041 | X |
Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 1495 | Down 35 | X |
Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 1003 | Down 48 | X |
Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 656 | Down 10 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR December 2018/February 2019
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 214/219 | X |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein -NOLA | USD 229/233 | x |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 223/227 | X |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 228/232 | X |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 230/234 | X |
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 232/234 | X |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 215/218 Jan/Feb 2019 | X |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 215/218 | x |
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Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 235/237 | x |
Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD no prices | X |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 237/241 | X |
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 220/225 | X |
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Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 165/168 | x |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 183/186 | x |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 165/169 | X |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 168/172 | X |
Corn, FOB France - Atlantic | USD 199/201 | x |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 166/170 | X |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 185/189 | X |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 168/172 | X |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 156/161 | X |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 170/174 | x |
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Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 347/351 | X |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 372/376 | x |
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 363/367 | X |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 332/336 | X |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 366/370 | X |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 337/341 | X |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 335/338 | x |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 375/379 | X |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 392>>374 | X |
Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 347/353 | x |
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Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 545>>525 m/t | X |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 175>>165 m/t | X |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 195/199 | X |
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Not much at all going on in the corn by-product market – prices for export seemed to stay quite steady for the week. Although, the USDA price report shows the average Midwest USA price for corn gluten feed was up by about US 6 m/t and up USD 3 m/t for corn gluten feed. These higher prices were not seen in the export market.
Demand for DDGS from Asian buyers is steady but not overwhelming. The US Grains Council report this week was saying that DDGS prices could start to move higher as the winter months usually have higher US domestic demand and more demand normally means higher prices.
It will be interesting to see if anything happens to corn gluten meal prices when the new fishing quota for Peru is announced and buyers rush into the market. If the new quota is high and fishmeal prices weaken then there is a good chance that CGM will follow.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 380/400 m/t CNF Asia USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 570/580 m/t CNF Asia USD 750/760 m/t CNF Asia |
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 480/520 to Indonesia USD 570/580 m/t CNF Asia USD 550/570 m/t CNF Asia USD 750/770 m/t CNF Asia |
Meat and bone meal prices into Asia, for non-Indonesia destinations, moved a little higher this week but it is reported that US origin prices have been softer as buyers are looking at origins that can offer quicker delivery than the US. New Zealand is showing higher prices as they are about the best game in town for now.
US export prices and domestic prices were steady on the week. Animal protein stocks in the US are quite high and low vegetable protein prices mean that animal proteins are having to fight for business. The Jacobsen report was mentioning that feathermeal prices are up on the week pushed higher by good export demand – they also feel that feathermeal and perhaps poultry meal prices could be trending higher – leaving poor old meat and bone meal behind.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishmeal prices in Peru were quoted a little lower this week – probably slipped a little as there are no buyers and few sellers as we all wait to find out what will happen with the next fishing quota. Some of the trade folks are saying that a quick announcement of the quota could see fishing start early next week. I guess all the fishing boats are sitting there with their motors revved up and fishing nets in hand.
Reports say that the very last of the current fishmeal stocks have been sold and the warehouses are all but empty –just the last few lots still to ship.
MSI-Ceres was mentioning this week that buyers in China will probably want new business not shipped until mid-January so that arrivals in China don't bump into Chinese New Year and face discharge delays and demurrage. China's current fishmeal imports from all origins are reported by officials to be at about 1.2 million m/t at the end of September which is down by about 11% on the previous year. Shipments from Peru represent 56% of China's fishmeal imports with the balance of imports coming from 19 different origins.
Peru's fishmeal exports to the end of October are just under 950,000 m/t with 770,000 m/t going to China and another 110,000 m/t to Asian destinations. These numbers certainly tell you where all the fishmeal business is being done.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,755 |
Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,480 |
Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,475 |
Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,525 |
Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,750 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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65/66 protein | 1240/1250 m/t |
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67% protein standard steam | 1300/1310 m/t |
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67% protein 150 TVN | 1450/1460 m/t | No prices |
67% protein 120 TVN | 1500/1510 m/t | 1540/1560 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1550/1570 m/t | 1580/1600 |
68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1600/1620 m/t | 1610/1630 |
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Fish oil, crude bulk | 1500/1550 | 1400/1450 |
Fish oil, crude drums | 1550/1600 |
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Fish oil, flexi tank | 1650/1700 |
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Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 1750/1800 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2018 Wayne S. Bacon
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