Weekly report - Nov 24, 2018

 

HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.   Email:   tradegroUp@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564   

3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT November 24, 2018

 

This week's report is a little shorter than normal due to the holidays in the US – both Thursday and Friday for many organizations and reporting services – updated information is minimal from the US this week. But then, on a holiday week not too much seems to happen.

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

US grains and oilseeds moved lower this week in a short work week with lower trading volumes. At the end of the week corn prices were down by about USD 2 or 3 m/t while soybeans dropped another USD 4 to 5 m/t with soymeal also down by USD 5 m/t. Wheat prices were also softer with hard red winter wheat being hit with a drop of about USD 8 to 10 m/t and soft red winter down by about USD 3 m/t.

 

Activity on Thursday was zero while Friday was very, very quiet as everyone digested their turkey dinner from Thursday and filled up on turkey sandwiches on Friday. One of the best things about Thanksgiving is having turkey sandwiches for days later.

 

Friday in the US (and some other places – even France) was "Black Friday" when everything at retail is said to be at bargain prices – some is and some isn't.  However, on Friday there were no big price drops for grains, so Black Friday counted for nothing in the grain business.

 

There has been no news on USA/China trade that would perk up the soymeal prices and even with Egypt buying a couple of cargos of US wheat there was no serious market reaction.

 

A quiet week with little buying or selling and much reduced US futures volumes – next week will be a much more normal week.

 

 

Crop Situation and Condition – USA/France --- reports November 23, 2018

 

USA	Very poor %	Poor %	Fair %	Good %	Very Good %
Condition
Winter wheat	2	9	33	46	10
Harvested	This week %	Last week %	This week 2017	Average 2013/17
Corn	90	84	89	93
Sorghum	80	73	89	90
Soybeans	91	88	96	96
Planted
Wheat, winter	93	89	97	97
France	Very poor %	Poor %	Fair %	Good %	Very Good %
Condition
Corn	5	13	24	52	5
Wheat, winter	1	4	14	81	1
Harvested	This week %	Last week %	This week 2017
Corn	100	99	100
Planted	This week %	Last week %	This week 2017
Wheat, winter	97	92	97
Barley, winter	99	95	100

@ USDA and AgriMer

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$19/20.00	Steady	X
US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch)	$19/20.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t	$33/34.00	Down $1.00	X
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch)	$32/33.00	Down $1.00	X
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t	$34/35.00	Down $1.00	X
US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$36/37.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch)	$37/38.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$45/46.00	Steady	X
US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch)	$33/34.00	Down $1.00	X
US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t	$38/39.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$49/50.00	Up $1.00	X
US Gulf China: Panamax	$48/49.00	Up $1.00	x
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t	$37/38.00	Up $1.00	X
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$27/28.00	Up $1.00	X
US PNW China: Panamax	$26/27.00	Up $1.00	X
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$42/43.00	Steady	X
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$46/47.00	Up $1.00	X
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$15/16.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t	$31/32.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t	$37/38.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch)	$14/15.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t	$24/25.00	Down $1.00	X
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch)	$21/22.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch)	$13/14.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$26/27.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Down $1.00	X
France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t	$14/15.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$36/37.00	Down $1.00	X
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Steady	X
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$42/43.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$41/42.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$35/36.00	Down $1.00	X
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$38/39.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$23/24.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t	$35/36.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t	$33/34.00	Steady	X
Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t	$30/31.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t	$38/39.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Steady	X
Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t	$21/22.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t	$28/29.00	Steady	X
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$37/38.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$36/37.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t	$34/35.00	Up $2.00	X
Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t	$27/28.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t	$37/38.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t	$34/35.00	Up $2.00	X
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$32/33.00	Down $1.00	X
Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip	$17.50/18.00	Down $1.00	X
Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip	$19.00/19.50	Steady	X
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t	$25/26.00	Steady	X
Ukraine to China:  50,000 m/t	$32/33.00	Steady	X
Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t	$32/33.00	Steady	X
Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t	$28/29.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t  (3,000 disch)	$13/14.00	Steady	X
Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)	$33/34.00	Up $2.00	X
Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) -	$35/36.00	Up $5.00	X
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$16/17.00	Down $1.00	X
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich)	$17/18.00	Up $1.00	X
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)	$34/35.00	Up $2.00	X
Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)	$49/50.00	Up $3.00	X
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$38/39.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t	$22/23.00	Down $1.00	X
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$18/19.00	Up $2.00	X
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Down $1.00	X
Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t	$19/20.00	Down $1.00	X
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$31/32.00	Down $2.00	X
Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t	$38/39.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t	$12/13.00	Up $1.00	X
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$19/20.00	Up $2.00	X
Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included)	1093	Up 62	X
Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT)	1057	Up 301	X
Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT)	1376	Down 77	X
Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT)	952	Down 17	X
Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT)	635	Down 11	X

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR December 2018/February 2019

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 216/220	X
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein -NOLA	USD 230/234	X
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 221/225	X
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 228/231	X
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro	USD 229/232	X
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen	USD 234/236	X
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver	USD 210/213 Jan/Feb 2019	X
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 216/219	X
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 234/236	X
Barley, feed, Argentina, up river	USD no prices	X
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 238/242	X
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA	USD 159/162	X
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 178/181	X
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 165/169	X
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 169/173	X
Corn, FOB France - Atlantic	USD 203/206	X
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 169/172	X
Corn, FOB Russia	USD 187/191	X
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t	USD 167/170	X
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 153/156	X
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD 165/168	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA	USD 345/348	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 370/373	X
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 364/367	X
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina	USD 330/334	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 363/366	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil	USD 334/338	X
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 332/335	X
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 360/364	X
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 364/368	X
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 345/349	X
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD 565>>555 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD 175>>165 m/t	X
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD 204/208	X

 

Corn by-product prices were steady this week with lower export volume and demand due to US holidays on Thursday and, for many, also Friday.

 

Earlier in the week the USDA price report had corn gluten meal prices higher by almost USD 10 m/t with corn gluten feed prices up by about USD 2 m/t – DDGS prices were pretty much steady on the week.

 

Export price ideas were very hard to find this week but will have better information for next week once everyone in the US is back to work.

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Australian MBM 45% protein    Australian MBM 50% protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia  USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia  USD 570/580 m/t CNF Asia  USD 750/760 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein       USA Feathermeal, 80% protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia  USD 500/520 to Indonesia  USD 580/600 m/t CNF Asia  USD 550/570 m/t CNF Asia  USD 750/770 m/t CNF Asia

 

Sorry but no updates available on animal protein items this week.

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Fishing in the north of Peru is moving along quite nicely with the catch up to November 22 reported at just under 429,000 m/t: about 97,500 m/t fishmeal and 9,200 m/t fish oil. Daily catch is running in excess of 60,000 m/t with close to 500 vessels fishing.

 

The good fishing for the first few days of the new quota has put a little downward pressure on prices with most Peruvian prices slipping by about USD 20 m/t – Chile prices were also down by about USD 20 m/t.

 

There hasn't been a great deal of buying interest this week but what there was saw buyers looking for lower prices from exporters. With close to half the quota production presold, there will come a time when buyers are going to jump in and snap up the other half of the fishmeal production. Buyers are probably waiting for a lower price point before they get too excited.

 

Looking at prices overall, there doesn't seem to be any reason this week to expect prices to move higher, so it looks like steady to a little lower until something happens.

 

MSI Ceres published some Peru fishmeal export numbers by region this week and it looks like Asia takes 93.3% of Peru's fishmeal exports with Europe at about 3.0% and North/South/Central America representing another 3.0%. Since the entire world produces animal feed but only Asia uses large amounts of fishmeal, should one worry about the long-term future of fishmeal use in Asia – are their alternatives that they are not using or is Asia locked into fishmeal due to the aquafeed business.

 

One other point of interest from MSI Ceres – just under 98% of all Peru fishmeal exports go by container.

 

 

 

 

  

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72% protein	1,750
Danish fishmeal	64% protein	1,475
Peru fishmeal	64% protein	1,475
Chile fishmeal	67% protein	1,525
Iceland fishmeal	70% protein	1,775

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
65/66 protein	1220/1240 m/t
67% protein standard steam	1280/1300 m/t
67% protein 150 TVN	1430/1450 m/t	No prices
67% protein 120 TVN	1480/1500 m/t	1490/1510
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1530/1550 m/t	1520/1540
68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN	1580/1600 m/t	1570/1590
Fish oil, crude bulk	1500/1550	1380/1400
Fish oil, crude drums	1550/1600
Fish oil, flexi tank	1650/1700
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	1750/1800

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2018 Wayne S. Bacon