Saturday, February 02, 2019

Weekly Report --Feb 02, 2012

 
HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.   Email:   tradegroUp@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564   

3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT February 02, 2019

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

Looking at where prices in the US finished the week one could say that it seemed to be a quiet week. Of course, there are always some exciting moments in the business during the week but when you finish off the week mostly unchanged or only with slight prices changes than it has been an overall quiet week.

 

There was a lot of speculation about the US/China trade problems and how close they are to being solved. China is now expected to be in the market for soybeans, corn and wheat in coming days but exactly where will they buy their supplies.

 

The corn market benefitted from talk that the Brazil corn plantings for he next crop will see corn in the ground very quickly which could give higher yields. However, the weather in Brazil is still hot and dry which is not the best for the new crop – a little ground moisture would be appreciated for the planting. The is also the feeling that China may buy some US corn but that is still just hoping.

 

Soybeans were up a little on the week, strictly due to expectations of more from China. China was quoted as saying that it will buy 5 million m/t of US soybeans, but no one seems to sure if the Chinese statement was referring to the 5 mm/t already purchased or another 5 mm/t.

 

Wheat prices were up on Friday (but a little lower on the week) with everyone worrying about the effect of the very, very, very cold weather on the winter wheat crop. The cold snap is said to be coming to an end early in the week – which will make a lot of people in the US and Canada very happy.

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)

$17/18.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch)

$17/18.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t

$28/29.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch)

$27/28.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t

$29/30.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$34/35.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch)

$32/33.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$43/44.00

Steady

X

US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch)

$32/33.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t

$32/33.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$39/40.00

Down $2.00

X

US Gulf China: Panamax

$38/39.00

Down $2.00

X

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$36/37.00

Steady

X

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$22/23.00

Down $1.00

X

US PNW China: Panamax

$21/22.00

Down $1.00

X

US East Coast Egypt: Panamax

$41/42.00

Steady

X

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$46/47.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$15/16.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t

$29/30.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t

$36/37.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch)

$13/14.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t

$21/22.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch)

$20/21.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch)

$12/13.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000

$25/26.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t

$18/19.00

Down $1.00

X

France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t

$14/15.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t

$30/31.00

Down $1.00

X

 

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$26/27.00

Steady

X

Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$31/32.00

Down $1.00

X

Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$30/31.00

Down $1.00

x

Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$31/32.00

Down $1.00

X

Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t

$33/34.00

Down $1.00

X

Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$22/23.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t

$29/30.00

Down $1.00

X

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t

$30/31.00

Steady

X

Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t

$28/29.00

Down $1.00

X

Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t

$33/34.00

Down $1.00

X

Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$26/27.00

Steady

X

Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t

$19/20.00

Down $1.00

X

 

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t

$24/25.00

Down $1.00

X

Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t

$26/27.00

Down $2.00

X

Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t

$25/26.00

Down $2.00

X

Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t

$29/30.00

Down $1.00

X

Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t

$23/24.00

Down $1.00

X

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$33/34.00

Down $1.00

X

Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t

$29/30.00

Down $1.00

X

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$27/28.00

Down $1.00

X

 

 

 

 

Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip

$16.00/16.50

Down $1.00

X

Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip

$18.50/19.00

Down $0.50

X

Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t

$25/26.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

Ukraine to China:  50,000 m/t

$31/32.00

Steady

X

Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t

$32/33.00

Steady

X

Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t

$29/30.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t  (3,000 disch)

$13/14.00

Steady

X

Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)

$27/28.00

Down $1.00

x

Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) -

$26/27.00

Down $5.00

X

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)

$14/15.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich)

$15/16.00

Steady

X

Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)

$27/28.00

Down $1.00

X

Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)

$42/43.00

Down $4.00

X

Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)

$34/35.00

Down $1.00

X

Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t

$19/20.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$15/16.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)

$19/20.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch)

$26/27.00

Steady

x

Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t

$19/20.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k

$25/26.00

Down $1.00

X

Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t

$38/39.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t

$13/14.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$15/16.00

Down $1.00

X

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included)

645

Down 260

x

Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT)

1014

Down 816

X

Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT)

560

Down 188

X

Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT)

450

Down 125

X

Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT)

311

Down 84

X

 

 

 

 


 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR February/April 2019

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA

 USD 229/231

X

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein -NOLA

 USD 242/245

X

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 240/242

X

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 247/249

X

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

 USD 247/249

X

   Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen

 USD 241/243

X

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver

 USD 212/215

X

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

 USD 229/232

X

 

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

 USD 227/229

X

   Barley, feed, Argentina, up river

 USD 201/204

X

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

 USD 235/238

x

 

 

 

   Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA

 USD 175/177

X

   Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 190/193

X

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

 USD 173/175

X

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

 USD 167/170 Aug/Sep

X

   Corn, FOB France - Atlantic

 USD 212/214

X

   Corn, FOB Romania

 USD 184/187

X

   Corn, FOB Russia

 USD 185/188  

X

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 182/185

X

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

 USD 161/164

X

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

 USD 177/180

X

 

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

 USD 345/348

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

 USD 370/373

X

   Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam

 USD 355/358

X

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

 USD 327/330

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam

 USD 354/357

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 332/335

X

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

 USD 348/351

X

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

 USD 351/354

X

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

 USD 355/358  

X

   Soybeans, Black Sea

 USD no prices

X

 

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 570>>560 m/t  

x

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 180>>170 m/t

X

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 225>>215

X

 

 

 

 

Nothing much new to report in the corn byproduct business – other than the squeeze on nearby supplies (which has existed for weeks) the market prices have remained steady this week. The very, very, very cold weather in the US could add to the nearby prices as logistics get even worse when everything is frozen solid.

 

As mentioned for both animal proteins and fishmeal – the New Year holidays in China are keeping Chinese buyers out of the market for a few days, so the next while will probably be very quiet for export byproduct business.

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

   Australian MBM 45% protein

   Australian MBM 50% protein

   Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein

   Australian Poultry Meal, pet food

 USD 370/380 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 570/580 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 730/740 m/t CNF Asia

   USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein

  

   USA Feathermeal, 80% protein

   USA Poultry Meal, feed grade

   USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade

 USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 410/420 to Indonesia

 USD 580/600 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 525/545 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 800/820 m/t CNF Asia

 

With Chinese buyers getting ready for Lunar New Year next week, the animal protein market has slowed down considerably. Prices this week look to be steady on last weeks levels. Trade reports say that animal protein stocks in Australia are building as the slaughter is higher then normal due to drought conditions in some areas. The US also has very good stocks of meat and bone meal. The feeling in the trade seems to be that prices are going to have to move lower for MBM to move all the available supplies.

 

From the US, while meat and bone meal export prices may have to drop the opposite is true for feathermeal and poultry meal where domestic demand has been very good, especially from the pet food sector, and prices are being pushed higher. The Jacobsen report points out this week that there is also strong demand from the fertilizer industry which is carrying prices higher.

 

Only MBM prices seem to be falling behind and no one in the trade seems to be expecting any rally in MBM prices in coming weeks.

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Fishing in the south of Peru is still quite good with the catch to date up to about 120,000 m/t (27,500 m/t of fishmeal).

 

Not much new buying interest in Peru as the major Chinese buyers are all winding down for Chinese New Year which begins on February 5th – a few days of quiet and relaxation are expected in Peru. One of the trade reports was saying that the next two weeks should be very quiet.

 

For anyone interested in numbers here is a list of fishmeal exports by major shippers for 2018:

 

            Tasa – 232,000 m/t

            Copinca – 230,000 m/t

            Exalmar – 114,000 m/t

            Hayduk – 110,000 m/t

            Diamante – 109,000 m/t

            Austral – 92,000 m/t

 

These six shippers represent just over 88% of total Peru fishmeal exports for 2018.

 

Also, some numbers from China on where they source their fishmeal – totals for 2018

 

Country

Total metric tons

Percentage

share

Peru

783,900

53.68

Vietnam

131,600

9.01

Chile

91,900

6.29

USA

72,700

4.98

Mexico

65,400

4.48

Russia

65,800

4.51

Thailand

51,500

3.53

Mauritania

50,400

3.45

Pakistan

35,000

2.40

Ecuador

22,300

1.53

Others

67,400

4.60

 

 

 

Total imports

1,460,000

100.00

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Herring fishmeal

72% protein

1,760

Danish fishmeal

64% protein

1,475

Peru fishmeal

64% protein

1,465

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,515

Iceland fishmeal

70% protein

1,745

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65/66 protein

1220/1240 m/t

 

   67% protein standard steam

1310/1330 m/t

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1380/1400 m/t

No prices

   67% protein 120 TVN

1410/1430 m/t

1490/1510

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1450/1470 m/t

1520/1540

   68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN

1500/1520 m/t

1570/1590

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

1800/1850

1380/1400

   Fish oil, crude drums

1850/1900

 

   Fish oil, flexi tank

1950/2000

 

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

2200/2400

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2019 Wayne S. Bacon

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