-------------------------
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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroUp@hammersmith.biz
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Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564
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WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT February 09, 2019
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
US Soybean yields were lowered a little which brought production down but there will still be millions of tons of soybeans looking for a home.
US corn yields were also decreased along with lower feed usage and a drop in use in ethanol.
US winter wheat plantings are lower, exports are steady and feed use is down a bit.
At the end of the week, after the WASDE, not much happened to prices --- for the week we had corn down by about USD 2 m/t with soybeans down by about USD 1, soymeal down by USD 5 m/t. wheat was down the most with hard red winter down by about USD 6 m/t and soft red winter wheat down by about USD 3 m/t, spring wheat was down by about USD 4 m/t.
It looks like the grain trade was not at all surprised by the USDA reports – so life goes on but now we have reports to tell us what we did know but weren't too sure about.
There was a report on GMO soybeans out this week looking at soybeans until 2026 and, according to the report, everything looks rosy for GMO soybeans, with growth of 14.3%. The reports states that "approximately 600 million m/t of GMO soybeans will be sold around the world by 2026".
Top Ten US Export Destinations for Grains and Oilseeds – 11 months 2018 – in m/t
| Country
| Wheat | Corn | Sorghum | Soybeans |
| Algeria | 308,600 |
|
|
|
| Bangladesh |
|
|
| 1,079,400 |
| Cameroon |
|
| 8,200 |
|
| Canada |
| 1,785,300 | 53,600 |
|
| China | 394,400 |
| 2,175,500 | 8,266,200 |
| Colombia | 399,900 | 5,001,100 |
|
|
| Costa Rica |
| 819,200 |
|
|
| Djibouti |
|
| 38,700 |
|
| Germany |
|
|
| 901,900 |
| Guatemala |
| 1,017,500 |
|
|
| Indonesia | 625,200 |
|
| 2,448,100 |
| Japan | 2,606,400 | 14,256,000 | 386,800 | 2,043,500 |
| Kenya |
|
| 38,200 |
|
| Mexico | 2,581,800 | 15,331,200 | 167,800 | 4,144,500 |
| Netherlands |
|
|
| 3,295,900 |
| Nigeria | 732,200 |
|
|
|
| Pakistan |
|
|
| 1,794,900 |
| Peru |
| 2,890,500 |
|
|
| Philippines | 2,432,700 |
|
|
|
| Saudi Arabia |
| 1,652,500 |
|
|
| Somalia |
|
| 53,800 |
|
| South Africa |
|
| 33,700 |
|
| South Korea | 1,296,000 | 6,931,000 |
|
|
| Sudan |
|
| 181,500 |
|
| Taiwan | 872,000 | 3,050,000 |
| 1,975,300 |
| Thailand |
|
|
| 1,309,000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Rest of the World | 7,627,400 | 12,725,300 | 430,200 | 15,048,100 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
@USDA GATS February 2019
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $38/39.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $37/38.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $46/47.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $12/13.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $16.00/16.50 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $18.00/18.50 | Down $0.50 | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $14/15.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 601 | Down 44 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 792 | Down 222 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 574 | Up 14 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 415 | Down 35 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 290 | Down 21 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR February/April 2019
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 228/230 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein -NOLA | USD 237/240 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 239/241 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 246/248 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 245/247 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 235/237 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 212/215 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 230/232 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 217/219 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 198/201 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 235/238 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 175/177 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 189/192 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 170/173 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 166/169 Aug/Sep | X |
| Corn, FOB France - Atlantic | USD 209/211 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 182/185 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 185/188 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 181/184 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 160/163 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 177/180 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 337/340 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 362/365 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 352/355 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 322/325 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 350/353 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 322/325 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 346/349 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 348/351 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 352/355 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD no prices | X |
|
|
|
|
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 560>>550 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 170>>160 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 222>>212 | x |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
It seemed like a quiet week for corn byproducts this week with major Asian buyers closed down for Chinese New Year – of course, Chinese New Year doesn't just affect China but also any country in Asia with a significant Chinese population, and there are many.
There was not a great deal of change on corn byproduct prices this week although prices out a few weeks were certainly much more attractive than February prices – this has been the situation for quite a few weeks now.
None of the trade reports are calling for a rally in prices so we will probably just move along for a while at about the same price level – until the next market shaking news.
USA exports of corn by-products – 11 months 2018 – major destinations and selected countries – in m/t
| Country | Distillers Dried Grains DDGS Jan/Nov 2018 | Corn Gluten Meal
Jan/Nov 2018 | Corn Gluten Feed
Jan/Nov 2018 |
| Australia |
| 5,800 |
|
| Bangladesh | 140,400 | 6,700 |
|
| Burma | 59,000 | 2,600 |
|
| Cambodia | 48,000 |
| 900 |
| Canada | 609,500 | 66,700 |
|
| Chile |
| 140,900 |
|
| China | 201,700 |
|
|
| Colombia | 193,300 | 91,100 | 28,400 |
| Costa Rica | 77,100 |
|
|
| Denmark |
| 6,600 |
|
| Ecuador | 31,500 | 4,700 |
|
| Egypt | 193,300 | 134,100 |
|
| El Salvador | 62,400 | 4,000 |
|
| Guatemala | 57,000 | 9,000 |
|
| Honduras | 53,500 | 8,100 |
|
| Indonesia | 751,400 | 132,100 | 1,700 |
| Ireland | 353,500 |
| 429,000 |
| Israel | 249,000 | 800 | 228,600 |
| Jamaica | 18,500 |
|
|
| Japan | 435,200 | 14,400 |
|
| Malaysia | 62,800 | 29,600 |
|
| Mexico | 1,879,900 | 19,900 | 24,100 |
| Morocco | 184,400 |
| 55,300 |
| New Zealand | 247,400 |
| 50,400 |
| Panama | 19,200 |
|
|
| Peru | 29,500 | 8,100 |
|
| Philippines | 185,100 | 1,600 | 300 |
| Portugal | 37,600 |
| 46,100 |
| Saudi Arabia | 5,500 | 500 |
|
| South Korea | 1,069,300 |
| 900 |
| Spain | 213,700 |
|
|
| Sri Lanka | 15,400 |
|
|
| Taiwan | 200,400 | 35,300 |
|
| Thailand | 942,900 | 30,200 | 800 |
| Tunisia | 42,900 |
|
|
| Turkey | 887,100 |
| 67,900 |
| UK | 277,000 | 1,500 | 100,300 |
| Vietnam | 1,137,300 | 14,800 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Total exports | 10,993,500 | 772,900 | 1,035,300 |
@USDA GATS February 2019
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 370/380 m/t CNF Asia USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 570/580 m/t CNF Asia USD 730/740 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 410/420 to Indonesia USD 580/600 m/t CNF Asia USD 525/545 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/820 m/t CNF Asia |
According to the Jacobsen Report, prices for meat and bone meal into Indonesia have weakened a little – mainly due to continued low prices seen from US exporters – heavy US supplies of MBM are keeping a lid on prices.
The Australian trade says that they have done all that is needed for approval by the Indonesian government for the approval of OZ MBM shipments. All the needed documentation had been supplied and it is now just a waiting game until Indonesian authorities say that all is OK.
US domestic prices for meat and bone meal are steady but strong pet food demand has pushed up the domestic price for pet food grade poultry meal with some sellers said to be offering at least USD 200 m/t higher than the indication price above.
Everyone has been expecting higher prices for animal protein for a while now but good supply in most exporting countries is holding back any serious price rally.
USA exports of animal protein – 11 months 2018 – major destinations – in m/t
| Destination | Meat and bone meal – includes poultry and pork
Jan/Nov 2018 | Feather meal
Jan/Nov 2018 |
| Burma | 4,100 |
|
| Cambodia | 1,500 |
|
| Canada | 50,600 | 14,800 |
| Chile | 300 | 27,900 |
| China | 45,600 | 29,800 |
| Colombia | 1,000 | 100 |
| Ecuador | 14,600 |
|
| Germany |
|
|
| Honduras | 8,200 |
|
| Indonesia | 167,800 | 25,400 |
| Jamaica | 1,200 |
|
| Malaysia | 7,500 |
|
| Mexico | 180,700 |
|
| Peru | 5,300 | 800 |
| Philippines | 20,700 | 700 |
| Sri Lanka | 2,400 |
|
| Thailand | 15,800 |
|
| Vietnam | 48,700 | 3,200 |
|
|
|
|
| Total exports | 578,200 | 102,700 |
@USDA GATS February 2019
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing in the south of Peru is now up to about 143,000 m/t, just over 33,000 m/t of fishmeal, this week's catch was at about 25,000 m/t – not too bad.
The next biomass research cruise is scheduled to begin on the 12th of February and last for about 45 days. This research cruise will supply much of the data needed for the setting of the next fishing quota. Everyone is anticipating good results for the cruise as there has been little reason to expect any bad results.
Most experts feel that the next fishing season will begin in April 2019 with the first new production shipment later in May 2019.
Export fishmeal business is very slow due to Chinese New Year holidays with all the major buyers off for a few days. At New Year Chinese families gather together for New Year dinner and, according to news stories, the getting together causes the world's largest short-term population movement as family members rush home or back to their villages.
There was a report on the aqua industry published this week that pointed out that fishmeal/fishoil production has changed very little in the last 30 years and that increased fish farming means that demand required alternative feed ingredients. The study did make an interesting point when it stated that while alternative feed ingredients may allow similar aqua output to fishmeal the change in ingredients could change the flavor of the fish making it less palatable for consumers. I don't think that I have seen this comment discussed before – we tend to look at what is good for the fish and not for the end consumer. The report did conclude that a very good alternative to fishmeal in the future could be microalgae but that fine tuning microalgae for different fish species will be complicated.
Whatever, we can still count on every ton of fishmeal produced being sold and consumed every year.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,760 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,475 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,465 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,525 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,770 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
|
|
|
|
| 65/66 protein | 1220/1240 m/t |
|
| 67% protein standard steam | 1310/1330 m/t |
|
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1380/1400 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1410/1430 m/t | 1490/1510 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1450/1470 m/t | 1520/1540 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1500/1520 m/t | 1570/1590 |
|
|
|
|
| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1800/1850 | 1380/1400 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 1850/1900 |
|
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1950/2000 |
|
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2200/2400 |
|
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2019 Wayne S. Bacon
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