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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz
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Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT April 06, 2019
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Corn prices in the US were up just a little this week – not enough to worry about or to call a trend - soybeans did move up by about USD 5 m/t while winter wheat was up by about USD 2 m/t while spring wheat prices dropped by between USD 10 and 15 m/t.
According to most trade reports, the single most important grain and oilseed factor is the continuing US/China trade problems. As soon as things seem to be better all the price rally only to fall as soon as nothing concrete happens.
Next Tuesday we will see the latest USDA WASDE report and, as usual, most grain people are trying to be very conservative into the report. It is a good lesson to learn – never be too exposed in advance of a WASDE report – just too much risk.
The trade experts think that the WASDE will show higher US corn ending stocks and higher production in both Argentina and Brazil. Expected changes for soybeans seem to be marginal with China still the major factor.
Of course, there are some experts out there point to bad weather in the US with too many flooded areas, which do exist but may just be way too early to forecast crop losses – best to plant the crop first.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $48/49.00 | Steady | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $18.00/18.50 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.00/19.50 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 711 | Up 22 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 276 | Up 126 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 1114 | Up 12 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 742 | Down 71 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 432 | Down 32 | X |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR April/June 2019
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 209>>202 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein -NOLA | USD 214/216 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 221/223 old crop | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 195/198 June/Aug New | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 223/226 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 220/222 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 190/193 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 213/215 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 200/202 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 181/183 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 183/186 June/Aug New | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 167/169 | x |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 184/186 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 151/154 Jun/Aug | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 156/159 Aug/Oct | X |
| Corn, FOB France - Atlantic | USD 197/199 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 172/175 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 180/183 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 174/177 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 140/146 Jun/Aug | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 177/180 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 342/344 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 367/369 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 353/355 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 313/316 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 346/349 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 316/319 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 346/349 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 321/325 May/Jul | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 341/344 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD no prices |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 540>>530 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 170>>160 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 215>>210 | X |
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Everything in the corn byproduct market seemed to be undecided on which way to go this week. Sellers seemed to have quite wide range of prices – perhaps due to the solving of some of the US logistics problems.
Soymeal prices were steady on the week so that had little effect on corn byproduct prices and the small increase in corn prices was not much of a factor.
It seems that the largest effect on prices was the cost of moving materials down the Mississippi River system and a drop in US rail prices – the result being that there seemed to be the odd export bargain price this week.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 350/360 m/t CNF Asia USD 390/400 m/t CNF Asia USD 560/570 m/t CNF Asia USD 720/730 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 400/410 m/t CNF Asia USD 380/390 to Indonesia USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 525/545 m/t CNF Asia USD 720/740 m/t CNF Asia |
Meat and bone meal export prices continued lower this week – down by as much as USD 20 m/t for some quality levels. According to trade reports there seems to be a lot of "non-certified" MBM appearing in part of Asia --- according to the Jacobsen Report prices were as low as USD 280 m/t CNF – certified MBM is USD 100 m/t higher.
Prices out of both Australia and New Zealand are steady this week for animal proteins with very good export demand for poultry meal.
USA domestic meat and bone meal prices slipped a little lower as did feathermeal prices, but quoted export prices were trying to hold price levels steady, but buyers are looking for a decent USD 10 to 20 m/t lower price.
The Jacobsen Report was saying that heavy supplies and lower vegetable proteins will probably keep animal protein prices from moving higher – except perhaps for poultry grade products as they always have a market and a good price.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
It seems to have been "leaked" all over the trade that the new quota will be at 2.03 million m/t. This was said to have come out a meeting held in Peru on Tuesday. Supposedly there is another meeting in the works for this week which may be followed by the new quota and the fishing start date.
The trade also reports that there has been another good chunk of fishmeal trade this week – mainly Chinese buyers. Producers are still not all that excited about preselling the quota – they feel that there is a much better chance of higher prices than lower and one suspects that they are correct.
According to MSI Ceres this week: "we are experiencing a very stable market with a definite tendency for an upturn if fishing turns out to be difficult" and with my added comment: if the quota is lower than expected.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,805 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,500 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,490 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,545 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,805 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1250/1260 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1300/1320 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1400/1410 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1450/1460 m/t | 1450/1460 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1500/1520 m/t | 1500/1520 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1580/1600 m/t | 1560/1580 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1700/1750 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | 1750/1800 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1850/1900 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2200/2400 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2019 Wayne S. Bacon
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