Weekly report -- April 13, 2019

 

HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.   Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564   

3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT April 13, 2019

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

The latest USDA WASDE report didn't have too much excitement built in but there were a few items of interest:

 

·        Lower feed and ethanol use for corn along with reduced corn exports – the result is an increase in corn ending stock levels – the third highest corn stocks ever.

 

·        Wheat exports from the US were reduced which increased ending stocks.

 

·        Not too much was changed for US soybeans but ending soybean stocks for Brazil were moved higher.

 

Overall the report could be considered neutral to most grains/oilseeds.

 

As the week finished there was no serious change in prices: corn prices were unchanged on the week, soybeans were down by a dollar or two, soymeal was unchanged – even wheat prices were close to unchanged with prices for spring wheat the only change being up by about USD 1.50 m/t. All in all, a very quiet week for prices.

 

We are getting into the period where the US weather comes to the front as the major pricing factor – how will planting go, how are the ground water levels, will the sun shine --- all the excitement is now just in front of us.

 

 

The US Grains Council's very informative and detailed US Corn Export Quality Report is available on the following site, have a look:

 

 https://grains.org/corn_report/corn-export-cargo-quality-report-2018-2019/

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$15/16.00	Steady	x
US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch)	$15/16.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t	$28/29.00	Steady	x
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t	$29/30.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$34/35.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch)	$33/34.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$44/45.00	Steady	X
US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch)	$35/36.00	Steady	X
US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t	$35/36.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$42/43.00	Steady	X
US Gulf China: Panamax	$41/42.00	Steady	X
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t	$37/38.00	Steady	X
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$25/26.00	Up $1.00	X
US PNW China: Panamax	$24/25.00	Up $1.00	X
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$43/44.00	Steady	X
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$48/49.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$15/16.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t	$29/30.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t	$37/38.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch)	$15/16.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t	$20/21.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch)	$20/21.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch)	$13/14.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$25/26.00	Down $1.00	X
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$18/19.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t	$14/15.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$30/31.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Steady	X
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$27/28.00	Down $1.00	X
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$28/29.00	Down $1.00	X
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$30/31.00	Down $1.00	X
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$34/35.00	Down $1.00	X
Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$25/26.00	down $1.00	X
Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t	$33/34.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t	$32/33.00	Steady	X
Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t	$32/33.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t	$34/35.00	Down $1.00	X
Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Steady	X
Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t	$20/21.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t	$27/28.00	Steady	X
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$32/33.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$31/32.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t	$29/30.00	Down $1.00	X
Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t	$26/27.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t	$37/38.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t	$29/30.00	Down $1.00	X
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$28/29.00	Down $1.00	X
Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip	$17.00/17.50	Down $1.00	X
Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip	$19.00/19.50	Steady	X
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t	$25/26.00	Steady	X
Ukraine to China:  50,000 m/t	$35/36.00	Steady	X
Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t	$34/35.00	Steady	X
Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t	$30/31.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t  (3,000 disch)	$14/15.00	Down $1.00	X
Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Down $3.00	X
Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) -	$20/21.00	Down $2.00	X
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$15/16.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich)	$14/15.00	Down $1.00	X
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Down $3.00	X
Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)	$35/36.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$34/35.00	Down $1.00	X
Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t	$21/22.00	Up $1.00	X
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$18/19.00	Down $1.00	X
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Up $1.00	X
Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t	$21/22.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$28/29.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t	$38/39.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t	$14/15.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$16/17.00	Down $1.00	X
Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included)	726	Up 15	X
Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT)	418	Up 142	X
Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT)	1073	Down 41	X
Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT)	711	Down 31	X
Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT)	403	Down 29	X

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR April/June 2019

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 202/206	X
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein -NOLA	USD 215/218	X
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 185/188 Jun/Aug New	X
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 192/195 Jun/Aug New	X
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro	USD 226/229	X
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen	USD 221/223	X
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver	USD 187/190	X
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 176/179 Jun/Aug New	X
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 201/203	X
Barley, feed, Argentina, up river	USD 177/180	X
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 182/185 Jun/Aug New	X
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA	USD 165/167	X
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 183/185	X
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 151/154 Jun/Aug	X
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 154/157 Aug/Oct	X
Corn, FOB France - Atlantic	USD 196/198	X
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 174/177	X
Corn, FOB Russia	USD 180/183	X
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t	USD 173/177	X
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 134/138 Jun/Aug	X
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD 173/176	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA	USD 343/345	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 368/370	X
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 343/346	X
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina	USD 312/315	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 341/344	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil	USD 313/316	X
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 345/348	X
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 317/320 May/Jul	X
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 336/339	X
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD no prices	X
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD 520>>510 m/t	X
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD 165>>155 m/t	X
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD 205>>200	x

 

 

Corn by-product prices moved lower again this week and some experts are saying that prices could move even lower – especially for DDGS. DDGS is currently priced a little higher than its normal price versus corn which could mean that there may be as much as USD 10 m/t of further weakness in DDGS prices.

 

Corn gluten meal prices have also continued their move lower – at least for April/June shipments – prices for July and alter are about USD 20 m/t higher than the May/June prices.

 

With the further improvement of the logistics situation in the US there may still be some room for lower nearby prices since nearby is still at a premium over a few weeks out.

 

There doesn't seem to be any good reason to expect higher prices in the short term --- unless something happens to push soymeal and corn price higher, then it is a new ballgame.

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Australian MBM 45% protein    Australian MBM 50% protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 310/320 m/t CNF Asia  USD 340/350 m/t CNF Asia  USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia  USD 690/710 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein       USA Feathermeal, 80% protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 390/400 m/t CNF Asia  USD 370/380 to Indonesia  USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia  USD 525/545 m/t CNF Asia  USD 720/740 m/t CNF Asia

 

Prices into Asia continued to slip lower this week as animal proteins had to fight against lower prices for soymeal. Demand in a number of countries has fallen off as we are getting very close to the month of Ramadan, which begins about May 06 or 07 and users have good stocks in hand.

 

Meat and bone meal prices from all origins trended lower but the lower cattle slaughter in Australia and New Zealand should slow down their price drop – more MBM production will be used in the domestic market as supply shrinks and export prices should firm a little.

 

Export prices from the US also moved lower as US production was a little too strong for the demand level – this affected both US MBM and feathermeal – only poultry meal seems able to fight the trend to lower prices with good demand from the pet food industry.

 

No one seems to be forecasting higher prices in the short term, especially with vegetable protein prices also moving lower.

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

No official word as yet on the new Peru fishing season – we all keep hoping to hear something. However, the word seems to be that there is a very high level of juvenile fish which some say could delay new fishing until the spawning season has ended. The trade now seems to feel that the new quota will be just around 2.0 million m/t with fishing beginning in early May. An announcement of the new quota is expected prior to next weeks Easter holidays.

 

The rush to buy seems to have slowed a little but the price range seems to be quite wide with Super Prime said to be selling anywhere from USD 1620 up with bids said to be seen as high as USD 1660 m/t. Pre-sales going into the next season seem to be at about 100,000 m/t.

 

For now, things are quiet as we wait for the new quota announcement and the comments that will follow from the trade – around 2.0 mm/t does look line the possible level.

 

There was an interesting article in "Aquaculture" this week on how adding peppermint oil to tilapia feed can "boost fish performance and survival following a disease challenge". The addition of about 0.25% of peppermint oil (mentha piperita) had the best overall effect on the fish – fish mortality dropped with the peppermint oil test groups.

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72% protein	1,810
Danish fishmeal	64% protein	1,505
Peru fishmeal	64% protein	1,485
Chile fishmeal	67% protein	1,540
Iceland fishmeal	70% protein	1,820

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
65/66 protein	1300/1320 m/t
67% protein standard steam	1360/1380 m/t
67% protein 150 TVN	1460/1480 m/t	No prices
67% protein 120 TVN	1520/1540 m/t	1500/1520
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1590/1610 m/t	1550/1570
68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN	1640/1660 m/t	1620/1640
Fish oil, crude bulk	1700/1750
Fish oil, crude drums	1750/1800
Fish oil, flexi tank	1850/1900
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2200/2400

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2019 Wayne S. Bacon