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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz
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WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT May 05, 2019
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Much of the strength in corn priced is related to the weather in the US corn belt – too much rain and flooding in some areas and almost drought conditions in others. The weather for the coming week is for more rain for much of the corn belt --- could see more delayed planting on corn.
The big speculators in corn futures are still very short corn, although they did reduce their short a little this week --- but it still looks like they are expecting lower corn prices.
Soybeans/soymeal just continue to move lower as supplies and crops of soybeans everywhere are very good and business to major buyer – think China – is not as good as had been hoped. There seems to be nothing new to report on the US/China trade position although Donald Trump is "very hopeful" that a solution will be found.
As with corn, the major futures speculators are very short soybeans and added more shorts this week.
Winter wheat prices just continued its slow slide lower as supplies in the world seem to be overwhelming demand. Most new grain reports have wheat crops in very good condition in almost every wheat exporting country. No one is currently forecasting higher prices.
Top 15 US Export Destinations for Grains and Oilseeds –
2 months to February 2019 – in m/t
Country
| Wheat | Corn | Sorghum | Soybeans |
Argentina |
|
|
| 203,000 |
Bangladesh | 11,400 |
|
|
|
Canada |
| 370,200 |
| 272,600 |
China |
|
|
| 3,466,000 |
Colombia | 42,900 | 728,100 |
|
|
Costa Rica |
| 123,200 |
|
|
Djibouti |
|
| 10,000 |
|
Dominican Rep |
| 52,200 |
|
|
El Salvador |
| 54,500 |
|
|
Egypt |
|
|
| 620,400 |
Eritrea |
|
| 31,500 |
|
Ethiopia | 101,200 |
|
|
|
Guatemala | 78,900 | 126,800 |
|
|
Honduras |
| 57,800 |
|
|
Indonesia | 142,700 |
|
| 468,600 |
Iraq | 105,000 |
|
|
|
Italy | 27,500 |
|
| 134,200 |
Japan | 505,100 | 2,374,400 | 72,600 | 432,700 |
Malaysia |
|
|
|
|
Mexico | 558,500 | 2,500,000 | 54,600 | 805,000 |
Netherlands |
|
|
| 372,400 |
Nigeria | 304,900 |
|
|
|
Pakistan |
|
|
| 133,700 |
Panama |
| 8,000 |
|
|
Peru |
| 757,000 |
|
|
Philippines | 517,800 |
|
|
|
Saudi Arabia |
| 71,800 |
|
|
South Africa |
|
| 5,000 |
|
South Korea | 244,500 | 469,000 |
|
|
Spain |
|
| 210,100 | 506,100 |
Sudan |
|
|
|
|
Taiwan | 160,300 | 116,500 |
| 378,800 |
Thailand |
|
|
| 230,800 |
Vietnam |
|
|
| 74,700 |
Yemen | 206,000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@USDA GATS May 2019
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
US PNW China: Panamax | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $48/49.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
|
|
|
|
Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.00/19.50 | Steady | X |
Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.50/20.00 | Steady | X |
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
|
|
|
|
Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 985 | Up 96 | X |
Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 1290 | Up 507 | X |
Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 1190 | Up 4 | X |
Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 752 | Down 28 | X |
Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 382 | Down 7 | x |
|
|
|
|
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR May/July 2019
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 192/195 | X |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 197/201 | X |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 177/180 July/Sep New | X |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 182/185 July/Sep New | X |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 195/198 July/Sep New | X |
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 213/215 | X |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 179/182 | X |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 169/172 July/Sep New | X |
|
|
|
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 186/189 | X |
Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 173/176 | X |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 177/180 July/Sep New | X |
|
|
|
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 170/173 | X |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 183/185 | X |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 151/154 July/Sep | X |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 156/158 Aug/Oct | X |
Corn, FOB France - Atlantic | USD 191/194 | X |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 170/173 July/Sep | x |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 173/176 July/Sep | X |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 170/173 July/Sep | X |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 134/137 Jun/Aug | X |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 179/182 | X |
|
|
|
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 334/337 | X |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 359/362 | X |
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 336/339 | X |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 298/301 | X |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 332/335 | X |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 299/302 | X |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 325/328 | X |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 328/331 | X |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 340/343 | X |
Soybeans, Black Sea | USD no prices |
|
|
|
|
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 510>>490 m/t | X |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 160>>155 m/t | X |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 191/194 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Corn by-product prices were lower this week as improved logistics continues to make export shipments easier and the basis to export ports lower. The US Grains Council report this week was saying that US rail rates have dropped this week and that "river/transportation logistics" have improved.
It is expected that the increase in corn prices this week should stop a drift lower in by-product prices and may push prices a little higher next week.
The USDA issued their latest grain crushing report this week and it shows that DDGS production for March was at 1.86 million m/t, up about 10% from February but down about 4% from last year in March.
Corn gluten feed production for March was at just over 300,000 m/t and corn gluten meal at 89,000 m/t both are up from February but down a little from March 2018.
USA exports of corn by-products – 2 months to February 2019 – major destinations and selected countries – in m/t
Country | Distillers Dried Grains DDGS 2019 | Corn Gluten Meal
2019 | Corn Gluten Feed
2019 |
Australia |
| 600 |
|
Bangladesh | 14,000 | 3,400 |
|
Burma | 12,700 |
|
|
Canada | 91,000 | 8,900 |
|
Chile |
| 35,100 |
|
China | 6,600 | 13,300 |
|
Colombia | 27,100 | 13,100 | 5,000 |
Costa Rica | 14,200 |
|
|
Ecuador |
| 500 |
|
Indonesia | 165,400 | 25,200 |
|
Ireland | 64,500 |
| 60,300 |
Israel | 15,800 |
| 8,900 |
Japan | 71,400 | 1,300 |
|
Malaysia | 7,700 | 4,700 |
|
Mexico | 361,300 | 4,100 | 3,200 |
Morocco | 23,400 |
|
|
New Zealand | 22,000 |
| 3,000 |
Peru |
| 1,100 |
|
Philippines | 31,300 | 800 | 700 |
South Korea | 176,400 | 800 |
|
Spain | 25,100 |
|
|
Taiwan | 30,700 | 6,200 |
|
Thailand | 36,000 | 5.700 |
|
Turkey | 32,000 |
|
|
UK | 52,300 |
| 7,200 |
Vietnam | 162,300 | 1,400 |
|
|
|
|
|
@USDA GATS May 2019
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 310/320 m/t CNF Asia USD 340/350 m/t CNF Asia USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 690/710 m/t CNF Asia |
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 395/405 m/t CNF Asia USD 360/370 to Indonesia USD 480/520 m/t CNF Asia USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 720/740 m/t CNF Asia |
No change in export meat and bone meal protein prices this week. The Jacobsen report notes that holidays in China and the start of Ramadan today have combined to limit buyers in the market.
However, both US feathermeal and poultry meal export prices did slip lower due to very large supplies available from the US.
The US domestic prices for animal proteins are also having trouble showing any strength --- supply is very good but demand is slack. Mixed animal MBM is said to be very weak with Jacobsen mentioning ex-works prices as low as USD 175 ton. With prices so low there could be a swing of buyers back to MBM.
USA exports of animal protein – 2 months to February 2019 – major destinations – in m/t
Destination | Meat and bone meal – includes poultry and pork
To February 2019 | Feather meal
To February 2019 |
Burma | 700 |
|
Cambodia | 1,000 |
|
Canada | 8,300 | 300 |
Chile | 700 | 6,200 |
China | 21,400 | 1,600 |
Colombia | 100 |
|
Ecuador | 2,800 | 500 |
Germany |
|
|
Guatemala | 300 |
|
Honduras | 1,200 | 200 |
Indonesia | 37,300 | 3,000 |
Jamaica |
|
|
Malaysia | 2,200 |
|
Mexico | 30,000 |
|
Peru | 200 |
|
Philippines | 2,800 | 100 |
Sri Lanka | 600 |
|
Thailand | 3,700 |
|
Vietnam | 13,900 | 700 |
|
|
|
Total exports | 127,500 | 12,600 |
@USDA GATS May 2019
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing in northern Peru up to May 02 reached 197,000 m/t which should produce about 45,000 m/t of fishmeal and 5,800 m/t of fishoil. On the average about 400 vessels were out fishing. The daily average catch is at about 45,000 m/t.
There have been a couple of mini-bans announced due to higher juvenile fish levels but, all in all, things seem to be going very well.
No significant change in prices this week as both buyers and sellers have been waiting to see how the fishing progresses. However, Peru prices are expected to move lower soon. New sales were also limited for the same reason, but buyers should be in the market shortly as fishing continues --- especially if fishing remains quite good. Buyers are expected to be trying to buy at much lower price levels – there was some talk that prices for better grades could drop by USD 100 m/t as supply looks to be growing.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,800 |
Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,520 |
Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,525 |
Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,580 |
Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,790 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
|
|
|
65/66 protein | 1300/1320 m/t |
|
67% protein standard steam | 1360/1380 m/t |
|
67% protein 150 TVN | 1460/1480 m/t | No prices |
67% protein 120 TVN | 1520/1540 m/t | 1530/1550 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1590/1610 m/t | 1600/1620 |
68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1640/1660 m/t | 1620/1640 |
|
|
|
Fish oil, crude bulk | 1800/1850 |
|
Fish oil, crude drums | 1850/1900 |
|
Fish oil, flexi tank | 1950/2000 |
|
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2200/2400 |
|
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2019 Wayne S. Bacon
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