Sunday, May 05, 2019

Weekly Report - May 05, 2019

 
HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
------------------------------------------

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.   Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office : +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile : +33.6.8068.4564   

3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT May 05, 2019

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

Corn futures prices were up about USD 4 m/t on the week while soybean prices continued lower – dropping by almost USD 9 m/t – soymeal to was down by about USD 6 m/t. Winter wheat prices also slipped a little lower – down by about USD 2 m/t with spring wheat almost unchanged.

 

Much of the strength in corn priced is related to the weather in the US corn belt – too much rain and flooding in some areas and almost drought conditions in others. The weather for the coming week is for more rain for much of the corn belt --- could see more delayed planting on corn.

 

The big speculators in corn futures are still very short corn, although they did reduce their short a little this week --- but it still looks like they are expecting lower corn prices.

 

Soybeans/soymeal just continue to move lower as supplies and crops of soybeans everywhere are very good and business to major buyer – think China – is not as good as had been hoped. There seems to be nothing new to report on the US/China trade position although Donald Trump is "very hopeful" that a solution will be found.

 

As with corn, the major futures speculators are very short soybeans and added more shorts this week.

 

Winter wheat prices just continued its slow slide lower as supplies in the world seem to be overwhelming demand. Most new grain reports have wheat crops in very good condition in almost every wheat exporting country. No one is currently forecasting higher prices.

 

 

 

Top 15 US Export Destinations for Grains and Oilseeds –

2 months to February 2019 – in m/t

 

Country

 

Wheat

Corn

Sorghum

Soybeans

Argentina

 

 

 

203,000

Bangladesh

11,400

 

 

 

Canada

 

370,200

 

272,600

China

 

 

 

3,466,000

Colombia

42,900

728,100

 

 

Costa Rica

 

123,200

 

 

Djibouti

 

 

10,000

 

Dominican Rep

 

52,200

 

 

El Salvador

 

54,500

 

 

Egypt

 

 

 

620,400

Eritrea

 

 

31,500

 

Ethiopia

101,200

 

 

 

Guatemala

78,900

126,800

 

 

Honduras

 

57,800

 

 

Indonesia

142,700

 

 

468,600

Iraq

105,000

 

 

 

Italy

27,500

 

 

134,200

Japan

505,100

2,374,400

72,600

432,700

Malaysia

 

 

 

 

Mexico

558,500

2,500,000

54,600

805,000

Netherlands

 

 

 

372,400

Nigeria

304,900

 

 

 

Pakistan

 

 

 

133,700

Panama

 

8,000

 

 

Peru

 

757,000

 

 

Philippines

517,800

 

 

 

Saudi Arabia

 

71,800

 

 

South Africa

 

 

5,000

 

South Korea

244,500

469,000

 

 

Spain

 

 

210,100

506,100

Sudan

 

 

 

 

Taiwan

160,300

116,500

 

378,800

Thailand

 

 

 

230,800

Vietnam

 

 

 

74,700

Yemen

206,000

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

@USDA GATS May 2019

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)

$16/17.00

Up $1.00

X

US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch)

$16/17.00

Up $1.00

X

US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t

$28/29.00

Steady

X

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch)

$27/28.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t

$29/30.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$34/35.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch)

$33/34.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$44/45.00

Steady

X

US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch)

$35/36.00

Steady

X

US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t

$35/36.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$42/43.00

Steady

X

US Gulf China: Panamax

$41/42.00

Steady

X

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$36/37.00

Down $1.00

X

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$23/24.00

Steady

X

US PNW China: Panamax

$22/23.00

Steady

X

US East Coast Egypt: Panamax

$43/44.00

Steady

X

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$48/49.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$15/16.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t

$29/30.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t

$37/38.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch)

$15/16.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t

$20/21.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch)

$20/21.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch)

$13/14.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000

$25/26.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t

$18/19.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t

$14/15.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t

$30/31.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$27/28.00

Down $1.00

X

Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$35/36.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$34/35.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$30/31.00

Down $1.00

X

Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t

$35/36.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$24/25.00

Down $1.00

X

Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t

$33/34.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t

$32/33.00

Steady

X

Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t

$32/33.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t

$35/36.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$27/28.00

Down $1.00

X

Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t

$20/21.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t

$27/28.00

Steady

X

Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t

$32/33.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t

$31/32.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t

$30/31.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t

$26/27.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$37/38.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t

$30/31.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$28/29.00

Down $1.00

X

 

 

 

 

Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip

$19.00/19.50

Steady

X

Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip

$19.50/20.00

Steady

X

Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t

$25/26.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

Ukraine to China:  50,000 m/t

$35/36.00

Down $1.00

X

Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t

$36/37.00

Steady

X

Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t

$32/33.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t  (3,000 disch)

$14/15.00

Steady

X

Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)

$25/26.00

Steady

X

Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) -

$20/21.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)

$16/17.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 disch)

$16/17.00

Up $1.00

X

Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)

$25/26.00

Steady

X

Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)

$35/36.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)

$34/35.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t

$20/21.00

Down $1.00

X

Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$17/18.00

Down $1.00

X

Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)

$20/21.00

Down $1.00

X

Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch)

$25/26.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t

$21/22.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k

$29/30.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t

$38/39.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t

$14/15.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$16/17.00

Down $1.00

X

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included)

985

Up 96

X

Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT)

1290

Up 507

X

Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT)

1190

Up 4

X

Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT)

752

Down 28

X

Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT)

382

Down 7

x

 

 

 

 


 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR May/July 2019

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf

 USD 192/195

X

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf

 USD 197/201

X

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 177/180 July/Sep New

X

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 182/185 July/Sep New

X

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

 USD 195/198 July/Sep New

X

   Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen

 USD 213/215

X

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver

 USD 179/182

X

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

 USD 169/172 July/Sep New

X

 

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

 USD 186/189

X

   Barley, feed, Argentina, up river

 USD 173/176

X

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

 USD 177/180 July/Sep New

X

 

 

 

   Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA

 USD 170/173

X

   Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 183/185

X

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

 USD 151/154 July/Sep

X

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

 USD 156/158 Aug/Oct

X

   Corn, FOB France - Atlantic

 USD 191/194

X

   Corn, FOB Romania

 USD 170/173 July/Sep

x

   Corn, FOB Russia

 USD 173/176 July/Sep  

X

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 170/173 July/Sep

X

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

 USD 134/137 Jun/Aug

X

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

 USD 179/182

X

 

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

 USD 334/337

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

 USD 359/362

X

   Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam

 USD 336/339

X

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

 USD 298/301

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam

 USD 332/335

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 299/302

X

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

 USD 325/328

X

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

 USD 328/331

X

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

 USD 340/343  

X

   Soybeans, Black Sea

 USD no prices

 

 

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 510>>490 m/t  

X

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 160>>155 m/t

X

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 191/194

X

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corn by-product prices were lower this week as improved logistics continues to make export shipments easier and the basis to export ports lower. The US Grains Council report this week was saying that US rail rates have dropped this week and that "river/transportation logistics" have improved.

 

It is expected that the increase in corn prices this week should stop a drift lower in by-product prices and may push prices a little higher next week.

 

The USDA issued their latest grain crushing report this week and it shows that DDGS production for March was at 1.86 million m/t, up about 10% from February but down about 4% from last year in March.

 

Corn gluten feed production for March was at just over 300,000 m/t and corn gluten meal at 89,000 m/t both are up from February but down a little from March 2018.

 

USA exports of corn by-products – 2 months to February 2019 – major destinations and selected countries – in m/t

 

Country

Distillers

Dried Grains

DDGS

2019

Corn

Gluten Meal

 

2019

Corn

Gluten Feed

 

2019

Australia

 

600

 

Bangladesh

14,000

3,400

 

Burma

12,700

 

 

Canada

91,000

8,900

 

Chile

 

35,100

 

China

6,600

13,300

 

Colombia

27,100

13,100

5,000

Costa Rica

14,200

 

 

Ecuador

 

500

 

Indonesia

165,400

25,200

 

Ireland

64,500

 

60,300

Israel

15,800

 

8,900

Japan

71,400

1,300

 

Malaysia

7,700

4,700

 

Mexico

361,300

4,100

3,200

Morocco

23,400

 

 

New Zealand

22,000

 

3,000

Peru

 

1,100

 

Philippines

31,300

800

700

South Korea

176,400

800

 

Spain

25,100

 

 

Taiwan

30,700

6,200

 

Thailand

36,000

5.700

 

Turkey

32,000

 

 

UK

52,300

 

7,200

Vietnam

162,300

1,400

 

 

 

 

 

@USDA GATS May 2019

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

   Australian MBM 45% protein

   Australian MBM 50% protein

   Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein

   Australian Poultry Meal, pet food

 USD 310/320 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 340/350 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 690/710 m/t CNF Asia

   USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein

  

   USA Feathermeal, 80% protein

   USA Poultry Meal, feed grade

   USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade

 USD 395/405 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 360/370 to Indonesia

 USD 480/520 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 720/740 m/t CNF Asia

 

No change in export meat and bone meal protein prices this week. The Jacobsen report notes that holidays in China and the start of Ramadan today have combined to limit buyers in the market.

 

However, both US feathermeal and poultry meal export prices did slip lower due to very large supplies available from the US.

 

The US domestic prices for animal proteins are also having trouble showing any strength --- supply is very good but demand is slack. Mixed animal MBM is said to be very weak with Jacobsen mentioning ex-works prices as low as USD 175 ton. With prices so low there could be a swing of buyers back to MBM.  

 

 

USA exports of animal protein – 2 months to February 2019 – major destinations – in m/t

 

Destination

Meat and bone meal – includes poultry and pork

 

To February

2019

Feather meal

 

 

 

 

To February

2019

Burma

700

 

Cambodia

1,000

 

Canada

8,300

300

Chile

700

6,200

China

21,400

1,600

Colombia

100

 

Ecuador

2,800

500

Germany

 

 

Guatemala

300

 

Honduras

1,200

200

Indonesia

37,300

3,000

Jamaica

 

 

Malaysia

2,200

 

Mexico

30,000

 

Peru

200

 

Philippines

2,800

100

Sri Lanka

600

 

Thailand

3,700

 

Vietnam

13,900

700

 

 

 

Total exports

127,500

12,600

@USDA GATS May 2019

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Fishing in northern Peru up to May 02 reached 197,000 m/t which should produce about 45,000 m/t of fishmeal and 5,800 m/t of fishoil. On the average about 400 vessels were out fishing. The daily average catch is at about 45,000 m/t.

 

There have been a couple of mini-bans announced due to higher juvenile fish levels but, all in all, things seem to be going very well.

 

No significant change in prices this week as both buyers and sellers have been waiting to see how the fishing progresses. However, Peru prices are expected to move lower soon. New sales were also limited for the same reason, but buyers should be in the market shortly as fishing continues --- especially if fishing remains quite good. Buyers are expected to be trying to buy at much lower price levels – there was some talk that prices for better grades could drop by USD 100 m/t as supply looks to be growing.

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Herring fishmeal

72% protein

1,800

Danish fishmeal

64% protein

1,520

Peru fishmeal

64% protein

1,525

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,580

Iceland fishmeal

70% protein

1,790

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65/66 protein

1300/1320 m/t

 

   67% protein standard steam

1360/1380 m/t

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1460/1480 m/t

No prices

   67% protein 120 TVN

1520/1540 m/t

1530/1550

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1590/1610 m/t

1600/1620

   68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN

1640/1660 m/t

1620/1640

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

1800/1850

 

   Fish oil, crude drums

1850/1900

 

   Fish oil, flexi tank

1950/2000

 

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

2200/2400

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2019 Wayne S. Bacon

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