-----------------------------------
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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz
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Representative Office : +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile : +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT May 12, 2019
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
The report had corn ending stocks higher on greater yields and lower exports, soybean ending stocks were also higher based mainly on lower exports as the US soybean crop is forecasted to be a little lower. Wheat also showed higher ending stocks again mainly due to lower wheat exports. The USDA also increased corn production for both Brazil and Argentina. Brazil looks like a record corn crop year.
The USDA also confirmed that, in their opinion, most every grain/oilseed producing country is going to have a good year --- looks like we will be swimming in grains/oilseeds for the next year or so.
USA corn planting is still delayed in some areas due to rain but as we have seen before the US farmer can catch up on planting in the blink of an eye, so being a little late matters very little.
The US/China trade talks have not solved anything so far which is certainly negative for soybeans – so, along with a very big crop we have not so exciting exports --- China is a big miss for exports of soybeans, sorghum and DDGS.
Looks like there is not too much chance for prices to rally although we could have a bounce next week in futures prices after the large drop this week but don't expect any rally to hold as there seems to be no good reason for higher prices.
Top 15 US Export Destinations for Grains and Oilseeds –
3 months to March 2019 – in m/t
| Country
| Wheat | Corn | Sorghum | Soybeans |
| Algeria | 95,400 |
|
|
|
| Argentina |
|
|
| 203,000 |
| Bangladesh | 13,800 |
|
|
|
| Cameroon |
|
| 19,300 |
|
| Canada |
| 523,000 | 1,200 | 192,000 |
| China | 42,000 |
|
| 4,833,300 |
| Colombia | 74,200 | 1,255,600 |
| 148,400 |
| Costa Rica |
| 256,600 |
|
|
| Djibouti |
|
| 10,000 |
|
| Dominican Rep |
| 156,600 |
|
|
| El Salvador |
| 158,600 |
|
|
| Egypt |
|
|
| 975,900 |
| Eritrea |
|
| 31,500 |
|
| Ethiopia | 101,200 |
|
|
|
| Guatemala | 139,100 | 247,300 |
|
|
| Germany |
|
|
| 287,700 |
| Honduras | 49,900 | 138,600 |
|
|
| Indonesia | 273,800 |
|
| 755,100 |
| Iraq | 105,000 |
|
|
|
| Israel |
| 19,600 |
|
|
| Italy | 27,500 |
| 36,600 | 134,300 |
| Japan | 682,300 | 3,535,700 | 82,500 | 667,400 |
| Malaysia |
|
|
| 135,600 |
| Mexico | 735,800 | 3,629,400 | 73,400 | 1,296,500 |
| Morocco |
| 61,800 |
|
|
| Netherlands |
|
|
| 454,800 |
| Nigeria | 553,200 |
|
|
|
| Pakistan |
|
|
| 201,500 |
| Panama |
| 91,700 |
|
|
| Peru |
| 946,100 |
|
|
| Philippines | 623,700 |
|
|
|
| Saudi Arabia |
| 230,400 |
|
|
| South Africa |
|
| 5,000 |
|
| South Korea | 277,900 | 868,0300 |
| 327,700 |
| Spain |
|
| 316,700 | 506,100 |
| Sudan |
|
|
|
|
| Taiwan | 216,700 | 411,300 |
| 475,900 |
| Thailand | 59,300 |
|
| 293,500 |
| Venezuela | 30,000 |
|
|
|
| Vietnam |
| 65,000 |
| 105,800 |
| Yemen | 250,000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@USDA GATS May 2019
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $44/45.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $49/50.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | No info | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Adjusted | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.00/19.50 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.50/20.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Down $3.00 | x |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $26/27.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Steady | x |
|
|
|
|
|
| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 1013 | Up 28 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 1371 | Up 81 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 1198 | Up 8 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 779 | Up 27 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 382 | No change | x |
|
|
|
|
|
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR May/July 2019
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 187/190 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 190/193 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 175/178 July/Sep New | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 180/183 July/Sep New | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 195/198 July/Sep New | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 212/214 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 177/180 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 167/170 July/Sep New | X |
|
|
|
|
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 185/187 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 172/175 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 174/177 July/Sep New | X |
|
|
|
|
| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 160/163 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 177/180 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 149/152 July/Sep | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 150/153 Aug/Oct | X |
| Corn, FOB France - Atlantic | USD 191/194 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 171/174 July/Sep | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 175/178 July/Sep | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 167/170 July/Sep | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 128/131 Jun/Aug | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 172/175 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 320/323 Jun/July | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 345/348 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 330/333 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 293/296 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 328/331 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 297/300 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 315/318 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 301/304 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 315/318 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD no prices | X |
|
|
|
|
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 490>>480 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 160>>155 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 190/193 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
There was certainly no strength in the corn by-product market this week as the weakness in corn and soymeal prices made it easy for by-product prices to slip lower. While DDGS prices seem to be steady for the moment, corn gluten meal prices have been very week – certainly has been a buying opportunity for high protein buyers.
At the moment there doesn't seem to be any reason to expect higher prices but we may get a little jog higher next week if corn and soymeal rally after this week's large price drop.
DDGS exports are down by about 7% so far this year with large drop in exports to Thailand, Ireland and Egypt but there were strong DDGS export gains to Indonesia and the UK. Corn gluten meal exports are steady on the year versus last year while corn gluten feed exports are down by about 11%.
USA exports of corn by-products – 3 months to March 2019 – major destinations and selected countries – in m/t
| Country | Distillers Dried Grains DDGS 2019 | Corn Gluten Meal
2019 | Corn Gluten Feed
2019 |
| Australia |
| 700 |
|
| Bangladesh | 25,100 | 5,600 |
|
| Burma | 19,600 |
|
|
| Cambodia | 13,000 |
|
|
| Canada | 142,300 | 14,800 |
|
| Chile |
| 35,100 |
|
| China | 18,300 | 35,100 |
|
| Colombia | 48,200 | 17,800 | 5,000 |
| Costa Rica | 27,500 |
|
|
| Ecuador |
| 1,000 |
|
| Egypt | 15,700 | 24,400 |
|
| El Salvador | 14,600 |
|
|
| Guatemala | 10,200 | 2,100 |
|
| Honduras | 15,400 | 1,300 |
|
| Indonesia | 254,800 | 33,100 | 1,400 |
| Ireland | 75,200 |
| 78,600 |
| Israel | 50,000 |
| 35,700 |
| Japan | 122,100 | 1,300 |
|
| Malaysia | 14,100 | 6,600 |
|
| Mexico | 490,100 | 5,400 | 5,500 |
| Morocco | 23,400 |
|
|
| New Zealand | 22,000 |
| 3,000 |
| Peru |
| 2,000 |
|
| Philippines | 48,600 | 1,000 | 700 |
| South Korea | 304,800 | 800 |
|
| Spain | 25,700 |
|
|
| Taiwan | 51,800 | 8,600 |
|
| Thailand | 53,900 | 8.100 |
|
| Turkey | 194,700 |
| 2,800 |
| UK | 89,100 |
| 30,300 |
| Vietnam | 257,400 | 2,400 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Total exports | 2,449,400 | 173,000 | 163,000 |
@USDA GATS May 2019
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 310/320 m/t CNF Asia USD 340/350 m/t CNF Asia USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 690/710 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 395/405 m/t CNF Asia USD 360/370 to Indonesia USD 480/520 m/t CNF Asia USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 720/740 m/t CNF Asia |
No change in animal protein prices this week – main export markets in Asia are quiet. Nothing is happening in Indonesia due to the Ramadan period and China too is quiet, probably due to African Swine Fever.
Export prices out of Australia and New Zealand are steady but do look to be trending lower – USA export prices too are steady for the week.
In the domestic US market prices are weak as lower prices for soymeal make it tough for MBM to compete. It does not look like US animal protein prices will be heading higher. According to the Jacobsen Report this week US mixed animal meat and bone meal was selling, in domestic market, for as little as USD 220 M/T perhaps less.
US meat and bone meal exports are up by 21% so far in 2019 but feathermeal exports are down by 20%.
USA exports of animal protein – 3 months to March 2019 – major destinations – in m/t
| Destination | Meat and bone meal – includes poultry and pork
To March 2019 | Feather meal
To March 2019 |
| Burma | 1,400 |
|
| Cambodia | 1,300 |
|
| Canada | 13,000 | 900 |
| Chile | 700 | 9,800 |
| China | 32,700 | 2,200 |
| Colombia | 300 |
|
| Ecuador | 4,500 | 500 |
| Germany |
|
|
| Guatemala | 300 |
|
| Honduras | 1,900 | 400 |
| Indonesia | 51,900 | 5,300 |
| Jamaica |
|
|
| Malaysia | 3,100 |
|
| Mexico | 44,500 |
|
| Peru | 200 | 400 |
| Philippines | 3,800 | 100 |
| Sri Lanka | 600 |
|
| Thailand | 6,600 |
|
| Vietnam | 22,700 | 1,000 |
|
|
|
|
| Total exports | 189,700 | 20,600 |
@USDA GATS May 2019
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing in Peru is averaging about 50,000 m/t per day of catch with the total landed up mid-week at about 512,000 m/t – about 450 vessel per day fishing. Estimated fishmeal production is at about 116,000 m/t with fishoil at 17,800 m/t.
Fishing seems to be going quite well and most trade reports feel that the full quota will be landed with little or no problem.
Contrary to my comments of last week, it doesn't look like fishmeal prices are dropping, not so far – according to the trade a good chunk of business has been done recently and prices seem to be holding steady. However, with the good fishing that has been seen, some major buyers are out of the market in the expectation that prices will move lower.
China has been a slow buyer of fishmeal due to very large stocks on hand in China and the continued problems with African Swine Fever. Both buyers and sellers will be watching the China aquaculture season to see how it is progressing and what the demand for fishmeal will be.
For the moment, prices seem steady and fishing is chugging along nicely.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,805 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,525 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,525 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,580 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,785 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
|
|
|
|
| 65/66 protein | 1300/1320 m/t |
|
| 67% protein standard steam | 1360/1380 m/t |
|
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1460/1480 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1520/1540 m/t | 1550/1560 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1590/1610 m/t | 1630/1640 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1640/1660 m/t | 1650/1640 |
|
|
|
|
| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1900/1950 |
|
| Fish oil, crude drums | 1950/2000 |
|
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2050/2100 |
|
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2200/2400 |
|
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2019 Wayne S. Bacon
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