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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office : +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile : +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT July 13, 2019
According to market experts, the continuing rally in corn and soybeans is just a carry over of WASDE excitement with some additional bullishness due to the weather forecast. Temperatures in the mid-west of the US are expected to be very high for a couple of weeks with not much rainfall in the forecast. Corn, in particular, may not be all that happy with two weeks of hot dry weather.
Export corn prices in NOLA moved higher due to Hurricane Barry and the expected problems in loading in NOLA. Barry is not expected to have any effect on the corn crop just on NOLA loading.
The trade says that soybeans are higher on both the weather and the chance that the situation with China may be solved before summer is over. Soybeans may be better equipped than corn to face a couple of weeks of hot dry weather but there could still be the risk of lower crop yields.
Wheat was moving higher still on the back of WASDE report numbers – nothing like lower ending stocks to move prices higher.
One other factor affecting the market is that the trade doesn't have much confidence in the USDA WASDE report and have questions about some of the numbers --- both the acreage and yield numbers are felt to be too high with the trade expecting lower numbers in future reports. Overall, the WASDE was thought to be a bearish report which caused a bullish market reaction. Some experts are saying that the August USDA report will certainly be bullish.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
The Baltic Dry Index for sea freight reached its highest level in 11 months this week – Capesize and Panamax vessels were up very strongly due to very good demand for larger vessels for iron ore. The increased demand for larger vessels also pulled higher the prices for smaller vessels --- most grain rates moved up by at least USD 1 m/t this week.
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $48/49.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $37/38.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $36/37.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $46/47.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 |
| X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $47/48.00 |
| X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $53/54.00 |
| X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $40/41.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $38/39.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | No info |
| X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $20/21.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $15/16.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $17/18.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 |
| X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $38/39.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $37/38.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.00/19.50 |
| X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20.00/20.50 |
| X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 |
| X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $50/51.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | $47/49.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $23/24.00 |
| X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $28/29.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $17/18.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $17/18.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $23/24.00 |
| X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $42/43.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $30/31.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $39/40.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $16/17.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 1865 | Up 165 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 3541 | Up 243 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 1945 | Up 376 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 879 | Up 65 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 472 | Up 29 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR August/October 2019
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 228/231 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 227/230 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 188/191 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 192/195 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 193/196 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 198/201 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 195/198 Dec/Jan | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 182/185 |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 185/187 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 184/187 Dec/Jan | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 175/178 Sep/Nov | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 206/209 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 218/221 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 182/185 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 185/188 Aug/Oct | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 208/210 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 187/190 Sep/Oct | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 168/171 Sep/Oct | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 190/193 Sep/Oct | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD no prices | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 187/190 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 362/365 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 387/390 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 353/356 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 321/324 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 350/353 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 323/326 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 359/362 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 348/351 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 369/372 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD no prices | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 505/515 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 185/190 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 222/228 | X |
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This week was an up week for all corn by-products as they catch up with the rally in corn prices. Corn gluten meal prices are up by about USD 10 m/t, probably more on a CNF basis as freight is up too. Corn gluten feed continues to move higher while DDGS prices seem to be quite variable with some shippers up by USD 5 to 8 m/t for August/September while a couple of other exporters are only up a dollar or two.
With both corn and soybean prices continuing higher there is no reason to expect any weakness on corn by-product prices.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 325/335 m/t CNF Asia USD 360/370 m/t CNF Asia USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 690/710 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 410/430 m/t CNF Asia USD 350/370 to Indonesia USD 460/480 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 700/720 m/t CNF Asia |
Meat and bone meal prices into major Asian markets are said to be up by about USD 10 m/t this week. While feathermeal prices in Asia drifted lower on a lack of demand – it is also said that poultry meal prices are showing weakness due to a wide range of proteins available at lower costs.
The feeling in the animal protein business is that there looks to be little reason to expect higher prices in the short term --- just too much supply and too little demand. However, if we keep seeing strength in soymeal prices this will pull animal protein prices higher.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
With bans in place covering most of the Peru fishing areas, the catch has been very sparse – reports say that only 35,000 m/t were landed in the last week. Total catch is now up to 1.88 million m/t, which leaves about 220,000 m/t to reach the quota of 2.1 mm/t. The latest fishing ban runs until July 18 and the trade seems to feel that the government will cut off fishing on the 18th.
We are waiting to see what the new quota will be for the south of Peru – expected to be somewhere around 500,000 m/t but the trade doubts that this amount can be landed in the south.
New business has been quite slow with China seeming to be well covered for now – especially with the lower fishmeal consumption seen in China. The trade says that China's fishmeal imports may be down by 15% this year.
Buyers are hoping for lower prices while sellers have little left to sell so are holding on to stocks for now – it is quite a way to go to the next fishing season.
The new Peru export tariff on fishmeal will be set at 0.43% of the FOB price of fishmeal which is up from the 0.25% -- the actual amount is based on a monthly average FOB price. There has been comment in the trade that this increase, although it is not too great, will make Peruvian fishmeal less competitive in export markets. This is a difficult position to support when every ounce of Peru fishmeal is sold every year, not like years ago when there were mountains of unsold fishmeal.
Once again, there has been no change in export fishmeal prices this week.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,870 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,500 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,500 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,580 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,890 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1280/1300 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1350/1370 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1450/1470 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1500/1520 m/t | 1500/1520 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1550/1570 m/t | 1570/1590 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1600/1620 m/t | 1600/1620 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1850/1900 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | 1900/1950 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2000/2050 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2100/2400 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2019 Wayne S. Bacon
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