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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz
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Representative Office : +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile : +33.6.8068.4564
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WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT July 20, 2019
Actually, the prices at the end of the week would have been lower but for a sudden rally on Friday pushed all grains and oilseeds up on the day. Market experts say that the Friday rally was mainly short covering by major commodity funds – seems that they didn't want to be short over the weekend when the situation in Iran seems quite bad. And while Iran does not directly affect grains, a bad world situation certainly does.
Reports on Friday say that the rally was started off with soybeans and the very hot dry weather that could affect the US crop – couple bad weather with bad politics and the shorts all got scared which moved Friday markets higher.
The longer term US weather report does have cooler weather sneaking in so the Friday rally could be very short lived.
There was talk this week about ethanol producers cutting back a little due to very good supplies and weak current demand. If so, this would reduce corn consumption for ethanol and help to keep corn prices from rallying. Also, with US export corn prices being high compared to South America it is quite doubtful that there will be much buyer interest in US corn and major corn markets in North Africa will be looking more new crop Black Sea corn in coming weeks.
Doesn't look to be much bullish news for US corn prices this week.
Experts were saying that the increase in wheat prices was just the market following soybeans and corn prices higher.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $48/49.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $49/50.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 |
| X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $26/27.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $54/55.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $18/19.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $40/41.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $39/40.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $18/19.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $34/35.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $20/21.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $15/16.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $19/20.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 |
| X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $41/42.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $40/41.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $28/29.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $39/40.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20/20.50 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $21/21.50 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $53/54.00 | Up $3.00 | x |
| Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | $50/51.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $17/18.00 |
| X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $32/33.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $45/46.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $19/20.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $19/20.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $24/25.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $32/33.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $39/40.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $16/17.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 2170 | Up 305 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 4539 | Up 838 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 2170 | Up 225 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 982 | Up 103 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 492 | Up 20 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR August/October 2019
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 218/220 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 215/218 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 186/189 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 194/197 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 191/194 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 194/197 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 192/195 Dec/Jan | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 185/188 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 179/183 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 184/187 Dec/Jan | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 177/180 Sep/Nov | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 197/200 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 212/215 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 170/173 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 179/182 | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 210/212 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 183/186 Sep/Oct | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 178/181 Sep/Oct | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 180/183 Sep/Oct | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 156/160 Dec/Jan | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 179/182 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 360/363 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 385/388 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 345/348 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 314/317 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 342/345 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 312/315 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 354/357 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 338/341 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 359/362 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 355.358 | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 505/515 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 190/195 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 210/216 | X |
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US FOB NOLA prices were down on the week as the Mississippi River logistics problems seem to be improving and there was no serious problems with last week's hurricane.
DDGS export prices softened this week and were down at least USD 5 in NOLA – however, from a CNF point of view there was no weakness in prices as higher ocean freight was enough to offset any drop in FOB US prices.
While US corn prices, at least for futures, were down by close to USD 10 m/t, this size of a drop has not been seen in the corn byproduct markets. If corn prices do continue steady to lower then we will se a drop in the by product prices, at least in FOB US values.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 355/375 m/t CNF Asia USD 395/315 m/t CNF Asia USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 710/730 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 350/370 to Indonesia USD 460/480 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 700/720 m/t CNF Asia |
Meat and bone meal prices in Asia are reported to have moved a little higher due to supply shrinking from Australia. There is also some hope for Australia that they will be able to get back into the Indonesia market – a meeting has been scheduled later this month that should help to clarify the situation between the two countries.
Overall it looks like there is a little move to higher prices – just a little move – but experts are saying that animal proteins are priced too low versus soymeal – so there may be room for a price rally,
The US domestic market is steady without much pressure to go up or down in price.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
There was some fishing in Peru this week as the ban ended – about 40,000 m/t landed – bringing the total caught to date up to 1.94 million m/t, which leave only 160,000 m/t to go to complete the quota. There is not much chance that the full quota will be landed as time is short and there are limited vessels fishing.
Trade activity in Peru has been very quiet – China is out of the market – but there is only an estimated 70,000 m/t of fishmeal unsold – there is certainly no panic selling by the producers as 70,000 m/t is almost nothing.
Peru's fishmeal exports to the end of June are thought to be at about 600,000 m/t with almost 500,000 m/t going to China and an estimated sold but unshipped level of about 300,000 m/t. Shipments to China will all be caught up by the end of August.
As it has been for the past couple of weeks, there has been no change in Peru export fishmeal prices.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,850 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,480 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,480 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,550 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,870 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1280/1300 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1350/1370 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1450/1470 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1500/1520 m/t | 1500/1520 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1550/1570 m/t | 1570/1590 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1600/1620 m/t | 1600/1620 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1850/1900 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | 1900/1950 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2000/2050 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2100/2400 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2019 Wayne S. Bacon
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