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Sorry but I am a day late again this week – i was in Vienna for the European Commodity Exchange. The organizer mentioned that there were 3,200 people registered for the event which is quite believable as Friday was very busy.
WEEKLY GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT October 19, 2019
Other than wheat, the grain and oilseed markets in the US were quiet this week. Very little happened to the price for corn, soybeans and soymeal while soft red winter wheat jumped by about USD 9 to 10 m/t with hard red winter wheat up by about USD 5 m/t – spring wheat was quiet.
Much of the rally in wheat prices is due to the very low estimate for winter wheat stocks from the USDA at about the lowest level in five year. Wheat export sales were also a little bullish this week with total wheat export sales up by about 15% on the week and 25% on the year.
On the export sales side of things, both US corn and soybeans are down on the year so far with corn exports off by just over 50% in August and down 19% on the year, while soybeans are down by 17% on the year but up strongly in August due to China.
The harvest weather in most of the US looks quite good and farmers will be out in the fields working like mad. Both corn and soybean harvests are expected to show good increases this week. Seems the last weeks risk of bad weather and early snow storms has abated or at least the better weather has melted the snow that did fall.
There doesn't seem to be any good reason this week to expect higher prices for grains --- just don't see anything bullish in the market but then it may just all depend on what is happening with China.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $20/21.00 |
| X |
US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 |
| X |
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 |
| X |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $32/33.00 |
| X |
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $34/35.00 |
| X |
US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $37/38.00 |
| X |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $36/37.00 |
| X |
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $55/56.00 |
| X |
US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $39/40.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $42/43.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $51/52.00 |
| X |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $50/51.00 |
| X |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 |
| X |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $29/30.00 |
| X |
US PNW China: Panamax | $28/29.00 |
| X |
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $56/57.00 |
| X |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $56/57.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $40/41.00 |
| X |
France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $40/41.00 |
| X |
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $18/19.00 |
| X |
France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 |
| X |
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $22/23.00 |
| X |
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $16/17.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $31/32.00 |
| X |
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 |
| X |
France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $52/53.00 |
| X |
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Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 |
| X |
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $41/42.00 |
| X |
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $40/41.00 |
| X |
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 |
| X |
Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $42/43.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $43/44.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 |
| X |
Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 |
| X |
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Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $39/40.00 |
| X |
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $38/39.00 |
| X |
Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 |
| X |
Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $33/34.00 |
| X |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $43/44.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 |
| X |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 |
| X |
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Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20/20.50 | Up $0.50 | X |
Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $21/21.50 |
| X |
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $31/32.00 |
| X |
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Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 |
| X |
Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | No prices |
| X |
Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | No prices |
| X |
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $23/24.00 |
| X |
Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $25/26.00 |
| X |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $18/19.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $23/24.00 |
| X |
Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $42/43.00 |
| X |
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $42/43.00 |
| X |
Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $25/26.00 |
| X |
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $40/41.00 |
| X |
Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $16/17.00 |
| X |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 |
| X |
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Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 1855 | Down 69 | X |
Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 3064 | Down 226 | X |
Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 1840 | Down 76 | X |
Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 1222 | Up 4 | x |
Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 651 | Down 7 | X |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR November 2019/January 2020
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 232/235 | X |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 209/212 | X |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 196/198 | X |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 203/205 | X |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 199/201 | X |
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 202/204 | X |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 190/193 Dec/Jan | X |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 194/196 | X |
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Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 192/194 | X |
Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 180/183 Dec/Jan | X |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 182/185 | X |
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Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 173/175 | X |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 193/195 | X |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 155/158 | X |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 168/171 | X |
Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 188/190 | X |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 168/171 | X |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 166/169 | X |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 164/167 | X |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 147/150 | X |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 183/186 | X |
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Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 345/348 | X |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 370/373 | X |
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 346/349 | X |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 312/315 | X |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 337/340 | X |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 310/313 | X |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 357/360 | X |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 356/359 | X |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 368/371 | X |
Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 348/351 | X |
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Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 485/495 m/t | X |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 170/175 m/t | X |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 193/198 | x |
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Corn prices in the US didn't do much this week so all corn by-products were just catching up with what had happened last week. Both corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed moved a little higher but DDGS has stayed at lower levels as DDGS supply seems to be running well ahead of demand – at least in the export market.
The winter storms in the US that had been slowing railway transport have cleared up so product is now moving smoothly for export and this may put a little downward pressure on export prices – especially for DDGS.
Nothing much exciting to report in the market this week.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 355/365 m/t CNF Asia USD 395/405 m/t CNF Asia USD 550/560 m/t CNF Asia USD 680/700 m/t CNF Asia |
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 400/410 m/t CNF Asia USD 390/405 to Indonesia USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 380/400 m/t CNF Asia USD 600/650 m/t CNF Asia |
Reports from Australia show that the cattle slaughter is dropping which will lead to lower supplies of meat and bone meal (MBM) and will help the MBM exporters in Australia to reduce their very large current stocks and perhaps even push price a little higher. However, there certainly doesn't seem to be much of a move to higher prices so far as prices are steady to weaker for most exports.
In the US the price for both MBM and feathermeal is having trouble staying steady as excess supplies are working to push prices lower.
No one much is looking for any higher prices in the near term due to large stocks in almost all export markets but as the cattle slaughter slows there may still be a small chance that prices could rally a little.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Still quiet times in the Peru fishmeal business --- nothing to sell, no fishing and empty warehouses. However, there was a report that some fishmeal prices look to be moving a little higher – even with little to sell.
The new fishing quota is expected in a couple of weeks and 2019 looks to be a very good year for fishmeal. As you can see from the numbers below 2019 is looking to be about the best year in five years and should easily top 1 million mt of production. It is also interesting to see that China is now a larger share of Peru fishmeal exports than only three years ago.
Matter in Peru for fishmeal will remain quite until the Imarpe cruises are over and we have a new quota but with the size of the advance sales there may not be too much of a rush to further purchases
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,835 |
Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,370 |
Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,430 |
Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,520 |
Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,790
|
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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65/66 protein | 1050/1070 m/t |
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67% protein standard steam | 1100/1120 m/t |
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67% protein 150 TVN | 1150/1170 m/t | No prices |
67% protein 120 TVN | 1200/1220 m/t | 1200/1220 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1250/1270 m/t | 1250/1270 |
68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1300/1320 m/t | 1300/1320 |
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Fish oil, crude bulk | 1800/1850 |
|
Fish oil, crude drums | 1850/1900 |
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Fish oil, flexi tank | 1950/2000 |
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Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2000/2200 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2019 Wayne S. Bacon
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