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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office : +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile : +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT October 05, 2019
Corn. soybeans and soymeal had decent price rallies this week with corn up by USD 5 to 7 m/t, soybeans up by about USD 12 m/t and soymeal up by close to USD 10 m/t.
The weeks price rally seems to be mainly weather driven as there are concerns about the fall harvest and the possibility of frost for the crops still in the fields. Corn futures prices did move a little lower on Friday but were still up on the week while soybeans/soymeal just stayed firm all week.
Next week we have the latest USDA WASDE report and, as usual, no one is expecting any major surprises but then one never knows as quite often there are certainly surprises.
The US/China situation may be improving a little – just a little – which would be even better for soybeans and the US/EU expected additional tariffs by the US have not been applied as expected or as announced. The US does a good chunk of soybean/soymeal business to Europe and it would certainly be a shame to risk the EU slapping retaliatory tariffs on these items.
With the WASDE next week it should be an interesting week.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $20/21.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $32/33.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $34/35.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $37/38.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $36/37.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $54/55.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $40/41.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $43/44.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $51/52.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $50/51.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 |
| X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $29/30.00 |
| X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $28/29.00 |
| X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $56/57.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $58/59.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $19/20.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $40/41.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $40/41.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $18/19.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $22/23.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $17/18.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $30/31.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $52/53.00 |
| X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $41/42.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $40/41.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $21/23.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $39/40.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $40/41.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $41/42.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $39/40.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $44/45.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 |
| X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19/19.50 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $21/21.50 |
| X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $31/32.00 |
| X |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 |
| X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | No prices |
| X |
| Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | No prices |
| X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $17/18.00 |
| X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $22/23.00 |
| X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $22/23.00 |
| x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $22/22.00 |
| X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $35/36.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $40/41.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $29/30.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $25/26.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $40/41.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $18/19.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 1767 | Down 90 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 3021 | Down 317 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 1731 | Down 73 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 1199 | Down 61 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 670 | Down 20 | X |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR October/December 2019
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 215/219 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 202/205 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 189/192 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 194/197 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 191/194 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 192/194 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 184/187 Dec/Jan | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 188/191 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 180/182 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 170/173 Dec/Jan | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 181/184 | x |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 168/171 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 187/190 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 154/157 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 165/168 | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 183/185 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 162/165 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 164/167 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 163/166 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 148/151 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 176/179 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 341/344 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 366/369 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 344/347 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 304/307 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 335/338 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 308/311 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 350/353 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 354/357 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 363/366 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 342/345 | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 475/485 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 163/166 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 189/192 | X |
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DDGS export prices continue to look very good, although there does seem to be a lack of major export buyers these days. Perhaps waiting for even lower prices. The rally in soymeal prices this week may just get some buyers more interested in DDGS as the downward trend may have come to an end.
Both corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed had quiet weeks and both seem to be stuck in a trading range for now. There has been some buyer interest from Egypt for CGM, but bidders seem to be quite a bit below market price levels.
With corn and soymeal moving higher this week we should see corn byproducts follow along and move higher – at least a little.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 365/385 m/t CNF Asia USD 405/425 m/t CNF Asia USD 550/560 m/t CNF Asia USD 680/700 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 405/415 to Indonesia USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 380/400 m/t CNF Asia USD 600/650 m/t CNF Asia |
Prices for animal proteins were steady this week in the major Asian markets. Reports say that the US, Australia and New Zealand are happily fighting over the small demand that has been seen for a couple of weeks.
Australia still doesn't have access to the important market in Indonesia and this is certainly causing their prices to move lower to other Asian markets. Supplies are said to be piling up in Australia so prices may be forced to move lower again.
US domestic prices are also looking weaker as heavy supplies are stopping any price rallies and should lead to some additional price slippage.
No one is looking for any rally in animal protein prices in the short-term – just too much supply.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Another week with no fishing in the South of Peru – so far less than 3,000 m/t have been landed against the 540,000 m/t quota.
The current Imarpe Research Cruise is out chugging along and is expected to finish in mid-November after which we will be told the new season fishing quota.
The market in Peru has been very quiet this week – no one wants to sell more new-season production and all the Chinese buyers are on holiday for the 70th year birthday celebrations.
There has been no change in Peru fishmeal prices this week but there is the odd bid at about USD 50 m/t lower than the price below – no one is taking the bid.
According to the latest China import numbers, Peru is still the number one source for fishmeal with jut under 600,000 m/t of imports so far in 2019 --- 55% of the total imports of 1.1 million m/t. Vietnam is the next largest supplier
Table is thanks to MSI Ceres from their weekly report.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,805 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,350 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,430 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,520 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,780
|
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1050/1070 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1100/1120 m/t |
|
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1150/1170 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1200/1220 m/t | 1200/1220 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1250/1270 m/t | 1250/1270 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1300/1320 m/t | 1300/1320 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1800/1850 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | 1850/1900 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1950/2000 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2000/2200 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2019 Wayne S. Bacon
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