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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz
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WEEKLY GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT November 02, 2019
Not a great deal of change in grain/oilseed prices in the US this week – December corn was up by about USD 1 m/t, January 2020 soybeans were also up by about USD 1 m/t while soymeal was up by less than USD 1 m/t. Even wheat prices didn't do much this week.
Wheat prices did move a little higher on Friday as buyers were looking for bargains after price dipped to recent lows earlier in the week. The USDA reported that farmers were receiving about USD 33 m/t less this August than they were in August 2018 – that is about a 15% drop in income.
While corn prices were very quiet on average there were some reports of strong corn prices in some ethanol production areas of the US as the supply was falling short of the spot demand. The corn harvest has yet to get into full swing and snow storms may make it even more difficult for the coming week. The latest USDA reports are forecasting record corn crops for 2020 due to expected high yields, but this didn't do much to the market – late 2020 is still too far away to be a market factor
China bought some more US soybeans and there is still a great deal of hope for a solution to the US/China trade problems. Supposedly there will be the signing of the first part of an agreement later in November. Brazil's soybean planting is still running well behind last years level but only a little behind the five-year average.
Also, for all grains and oilseeds, experts seem to feel that the November WASDE report will show reduced yields and production for almost all crops versus the October report – if so, this could get prices moving higher (or not).
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $19/20.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $19/20.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $37/38.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $36/37.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $55/56.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $39/40.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $42/43.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $49/50.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 |
| X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $56/57.00 |
| X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $56/57.00 |
| X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $19/20.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $40/41.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $40/41.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $18/19.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $22/23.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $16/17.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $31/32.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $18/19.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $52/53.00 |
| X |
|
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|
|
|
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $40/41.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $39/40.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $24/25.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $42/43.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $43/44.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $43/44.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 |
| X |
|
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $44/45.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20.50/21 |
| X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $21/21.50 |
| X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $32/33.00 |
| X |
|
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|
|
|
| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 |
| X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | No prices |
| X |
| Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | No prices |
| X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $25/26.00 |
| X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $25/26.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $18/19.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $25/26.00 |
| X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $38/39.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $41/42.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $27/28.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $25/26.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $32/33.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $41/42.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $16/17.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 1697 | Down 104 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 2950 | Down 59 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 1513 | Down 182 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 1045 | Down 142 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 580 | Down 51 | X |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR November 2019/January 2020
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 230/233 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 219/222 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 204/207 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 209/212 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 208/211 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 201/203 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 193/196 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 199/202 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 188/190 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 182/185 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 186/189 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 177/180 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 195/198 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 167/170 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 170/172 | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 187/189 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 167/170 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 169/172 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 168/171 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 144/147 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 183/186 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 340/343 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 365/368 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 348/351 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 314/317 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 343/346 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 317/320 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 363/366 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 360/363 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 377/380 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 352/355 | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 500/510 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 177/180 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 203/208 m/t | X |
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All corn by-products moved a little higher this week – this with corn being just a little higher. Corn gluten meal is up by close to USD 10 m/t with corn gluten feed up by USD 3 or so and DDGS up by between USD 3 and 5 m/t.
Domestic prices for DDGS were reported to be quite strong which should push export prices even higher next week. Reports say that it is logistics problems due to winter storms that are pushing prices higher.
While bulk grain freight into major markets in Asia are slipping a little lower it is reported that bulk container freight rates are moving higher and are up by about USD 3 m/t on the week.
No one expects any surprise prices changes in the corn by-product market – things should just follow along with what corn and soybean meal prices do.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 360/370 m/t CNF Asia USD 400/410 m/t CNF Asia USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 700/710 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 400/410 m/t CNF Asia USD 380/390 to Indonesia USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 380/400 m/t CNF Asia USD 600/650 m/t CNF Asia |
There was some business done in Asia this week with prices remaining steady, but some say that the trend does look to be for lower prices in coming days. The Jacobsen Report was saying that the sellers are outnumbering the buyers for now but that the slaughter levels should start to drop off later this month which on may feel could stop any slide in prices. However, stocks of animal proteins do remain quite large so it may take a while for market price weakness to disappear.
In the US domestic market there is just no strength at all but there could be a little bump up in prices when we get into December and the animal slaughter drops off due to the many holidays late in the month.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
There was actually a little fishing reported in the South of Peru this week – a total of about 1,800 m/t. This is the first fishing in several weeks.
According to the MSI Ceres report, the Imarpe cruise has been delayed a little due to cold water and dispersed biomass. The cruise is now expected to end about November 08.
The IFFO meeting is being held in Shanghai this coming week, so all the fishy movers and shakers should be there. MSI will not issue a report next week and I won't be in Shanghai so there will probably not be too much new for me to report next week.
Not much going on in the fishmeal market – no sellers, no buyers, no stock – just speculation on the quota number. Still looks like 2 million m/t is the most popular guess.
Courtesy of MSI Ceres
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,850 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,370 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,430 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,520 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,780
|
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1050/1070 m/t |
|
| 67% protein standard steam | 1100/1120 m/t |
|
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1150/1170 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1200/1220 m/t | 1200/1220 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1250/1270 m/t | 1250/1270 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1300/1320 m/t | 1300/1320 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1800/1850 |
|
| Fish oil, crude drums | 1850/1900 |
|
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1950/2000 |
|
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2000/2200 |
|
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2019 Wayne S. Bacon
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