-------------------------
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office : +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile : +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT January 11, 2020
The first 2020 WASDE report came out on Friday and didn't really seem to have much effect on the markets. Most trade reports say that the market had expected to actual results so that there were no serious surprises.
The WASDE did have corn ending stocks a little higher than expected and the average yield for corn was also up a bit. All of this is a little bearish for corn, but the US/China trade problems may be getting solved which is a little bullish for corn.
Corn prices were unchanged on the week, but some experts say that the trend now is probably to higher prices.
Soybeans finished the week up by about USD 2 m/t, which is really nothing. The WASDE for soybeans was much like that for corn: perhaps a little bit bearish but there wasn't any major reaction from the market. The experts are not too sure if soybeans are now bullish but they tend to be leaning more to bullish than bearish so prices may increase.
Only the wheat WASDE was considered bullish due to lower planted area and smaller ending stocks. Wheat prices for winter wheat were up by USD 4 to 8 m/t. Winter wheat planting is said to be the lowest in 100 years. The report did mention that due to the poor durum wheat harvest in the USA this year the US is importing durum from Canada.
Top 20 US Export Destinations for Grains and Oilseeds –
11 months to November 2019 – in m/t
| Country
| Wheat | Corn | Sorghum | Soybeans | Soymeal |
| Algeria | 565,900 |
|
| 30,100 |
|
| Argentina |
|
|
| 203,000 |
|
| Bangladesh | 92,700 |
|
| 796,500 | 25,200 |
| Brazil | 192,300 |
|
|
|
|
| Belgium |
|
|
| 33,000 | 38,600 |
| Burma |
|
|
| 15,800 | 122,500 |
| Cameroon |
|
| 20,700 |
|
|
| Canada | 87,800 | 1,968,800 | 4,300 | 506,100 | 858,400 |
| Chile | 318,000 |
|
| 15,000 |
|
| China | 236,100 | 250,000 | 756,100 | 19,950,100 |
|
| Colombia | 587,700 | 3,601,000 |
| 597,400 | 1,159,800 |
| Costa Rica | 70,300 | 809,900 |
| 195,500 | 61,100 |
| Cuba |
| 58,000 |
| 42,100 |
|
| Djibouti |
|
| 59,100 |
| 90,400 |
| Dominican Rep | 212,000 | 355,200 |
| 19,000 | 479,600 |
| Ecuador | 249,200 | 27,600 |
|
| 501,900 |
| El Salvador | 202,900 | 557,800 |
|
| 252,400 |
| Egypt | 726,700 |
|
| 2,661,400 |
|
| Eritrea |
|
| 60,300 |
|
|
| Ethiopia | 291,300 |
| 5,800 |
|
|
| France |
|
|
| 95,200 |
|
| Germany |
|
|
| 400,600 |
|
| Guatemala | 524,200 | 937,800 |
|
| 425,500 |
| Haiti | 115,400 | 43,200 |
|
|
|
| Honduras | 280,600 | 641,800 |
|
| 275,700 |
| Indonesia | 1,140,800 | 3,800 |
| 2,226,700 | 39,700 |
| Iraq | 472,500 |
|
|
|
|
| Israel | 112,400 | 84,800 |
| 76,700 | 123,200 |
| Italy | 633,800 |
| 36,600 | 373,500 | 106,100 |
| Jamaica | 133,300 | 161,100 |
|
| 76,400 |
| Japan | 2,406,400 | 9,924,400 | 220,300 | 2,207,700 | 295,800 |
| Kenya | 124,500 |
| 18,900 |
|
|
| Lebanon |
|
|
| 48,700 |
|
| Madagascar |
|
| 8,000 |
|
|
| Malaysia | 394,300 | 22,300 |
| 597,100 |
|
| Mexico | 3,172,400 | 13,302,500 | 536,000 | 4,832,000 | 1,624,600 |
| Morocco | 32,200 | 61,800 |
|
| 267,100 |
| Nepal |
|
|
| 86,100 |
|
| Netherlands |
|
|
| 2,153,400 |
|
| New Zealand |
| 126,600 |
|
|
|
| Nigeria | 1,942,000 |
|
| 20,800 |
|
| Nicaragua |
| 252,000 |
|
| 87,300 |
| Pakistan |
|
|
| 997,500 |
|
| Panama | 71,600 | 453,800 |
| 20,800 | 185,300 |
| Peru | 312,800 | 1,029,900 |
| 180,000 | 134,700 |
| Philippines | 2,727,500 | 71,500 | 700 | 81,700 | 1,961,400 |
| Poland |
|
|
|
| 127,200 |
| Portugal |
|
|
| 160,000 |
|
| Romania |
|
|
|
| 49,700 |
| Saudi Arabia | 30,100 | 550,900 |
|
|
|
| Somalia |
|
| 103,000 |
|
|
| South Africa | 153,700 |
| 64,500 |
|
|
| South Korea | 1,095,400 | 1,875,700 | 2,000 | 938,200 | 60,400 |
| Spain |
| 600 | 371,700 | 1,391,100 | 69,800 |
| Sri Lanka | 68,100 |
|
|
| 190,000 |
| Sudan | 53,100 |
| 110,600 |
|
|
| Taiwan | 1,113,0200 | 1,140,700 | 6,500 | 1,655,500 | 16,300 |
| Thailand | 618,400 |
|
| 1,268,100 | 138,900 |
| Trinidad | 89,800 | 56,600 |
|
| 19,200 |
| Tunisia |
|
|
| 64,400 | 33,700 |
| UK | 25,300 |
|
| 116,600 |
|
| Venezuela | 83,100 | 12,000 |
|
| 134,500 |
| Vietnam | 136,400 | 65,300 |
| 650,500 | 534,700 |
| Yemen | 739,800 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@USDA GATS January 2020
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $34/35.00 |
|
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $57/58.00 |
|
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $41/42.00 |
|
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $44/45.00 |
|
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $44/45.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 |
|
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $56/57.00 |
|
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $56/57.00 | Down $2.00 |
|
|
|
|
| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $19/20.00 |
|
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $41/42.00 |
|
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Down $1.00 |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Down $1.00 |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $22/23.00 |
|
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $16/17.00 |
|
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 |
|
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 |
|
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $52/53.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $33/34.00 |
|
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $36/37.00 |
|
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $35/36.00 |
|
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 |
|
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $27/28.00 |
|
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 |
|
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $45/46.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $44/45.00 |
|
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 |
|
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $33/34.00 |
|
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $21/22.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $33/34.00 |
|
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $32/33.00 |
|
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Down $2.00 |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $39/40.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $45/46.00 |
|
| Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Down $2.00 |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Down $2.00 |
|
|
|
|
| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20/20.50 |
|
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $21/21.50 |
|
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $33/34.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Up $2.00 |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $25/26.00 |
|
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $25/26.00 |
|
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $16/17.00 |
|
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $28/29.00 |
|
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $40/41.00 |
|
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $36/37.00 |
|
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 |
|
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $24/25.00 |
|
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $44/45.00 |
|
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $17/18.00 |
|
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 774 | Down 133 |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 1066 | Down 441 |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 771 | Down 178 |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 570 | Down 92 |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 452 | Down 44 |
|
|
|
|
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR February 2020/April 2020
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 255/258 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 230/233 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 215/217 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 221/223 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 217/219 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 219/221 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 210/213 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 212/215 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 192/194 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 182/185 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 186/189 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 177/179 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 189/191 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 178/181 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 185/188 | x |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 195/197 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 177/180 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 193/196 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 178/181 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 143/146 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 183/186 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 343/346 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 368/371 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 362/365 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 331/334 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 353/356 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 324/327 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 367/370 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 370/373 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 366/369 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 367/370 | x |
|
|
|
|
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 545/550 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 211/215 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 218/223 m/t | x |
|
|
|
|
There didn't seem to be much activity in corn byproducts this week – it was a very quiet week. There were some Asian buyers shopping around but no one much seemed to be in a buying mood. Perhaps the main buyers were waiting for the WASDE report to see which way the market will move.
Corn Gluten Meal (CGM) prices were a little higher again this week which might be due to higher prices for Peru fishmeal exports. Fishmeal prices are expected to move higher for the next few weeks so that could give some upward strength to CGM.
DDGS and corn gluten feed didn't do anything much this week and seemed to be working in about a USD 5 m/t trading range. A couple of trade reports did suggest that severe winter weather in some parts of the US could cause logistics problems and push export prices higher.
USA exports of corn by-products – 11 months to November 2019 – major destinations and selected countries – in m/t
| Country | Distillers Dried Grains DDGS 2019 | Corn Gluten Meal
2019 | Corn Gluten Feed
2019 |
| Australia |
| 2,600 |
|
| Bangladesh | 157,700 | 30,900 | 400 |
| Burma | 43,700 | 2,400 | 600 |
| Cambodia | 34,300 |
|
|
| Canada | 565,900 | 56,500 |
|
| Chile |
| 121,300 |
|
| China | 166,100 | 13,300 |
|
| Colombia | 179,800 | 81,700 | 28,400 |
| Costa Rica | 66,100 |
|
|
| Ecuador | 21,200 | 2,700 |
|
| Egypt | 139,700 | 129,200 | 15,500 |
| El Salvador | 47,000 | 9,000 |
|
| Guatemala | 46,400 | 4,300 | 1,800 |
| Honduras | 44,300 | 7,400 |
|
| Indonesia | 819,800 | 137,300 | 9,400 |
| Ireland | 252,500 |
| 326,300 |
| Israel | 210,000 |
| 226,500 |
| Japan | 464,600 | 10,500 |
|
| Malaysia | 44,500 | 36,600 |
|
| Mexico | 1,887,100 | 17,100 | 27,700 |
| Morocco | 215,700 |
| 41,600 |
| New Zealand | 181,900 |
| 36,700 |
| Peru | 10,100 | 7,900 |
|
| Philippines | 240,400 | 1,800 | 700 |
| Portugal | 14,200 |
| 18,000 |
| South Korea | 1,126,000 | 900 |
|
| Spain | 103,400 |
|
|
| Taiwan | 222,500 | 33,400 |
|
| Thailand | 542,800 | 30,000 | 500 |
| Turkey | 575,500 |
| 125,600 |
| UK | 180,600 |
| 51,100 |
| Vietnam | 1,123,300 | 20,800 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@USDA GATS January 2020
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 340/350 m/t CNF Asia USD 370/380 m/t CNF Asia USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 630/640 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 380/390 to Indonesia USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 380/400 m/t CNF Asia USD 590/600 m/t CNF Asia |
Once again this week, there is no new comment on animal protein.
USA exports of animal protein – 11 months to November 2019 – major destinations – in m/t
| Destination | Meat and bone meal – includes poultry and pork meal
| Feather meal
|
| Burma | 5,200 |
|
| Cambodia | 1,500 |
|
| Canada | 46,100 | 7,000 |
| Chile | 35,400 | 40,300 |
| China | 132,500 | 3,600 |
| Colombia | 1,400 |
|
| Ecuador | 25,900 | 500 |
| Germany |
|
|
| Guatemala | 3,100 |
|
| Honduras | 6,000 | 1,500 |
| Indonesia | 213,600 | 24,000 |
| Jamaica |
|
|
| Malaysia | 10,600 |
|
| Mexico | 177,500 |
|
| Peru | 3,300 | 1,200 |
| Philippines | 32,200 | 300 |
| Sri Lanka | 1,900 |
|
| Thailand | 30,200 |
|
| Vietnam | 85,800 | 3,400 |
|
|
|
|
| Total exports | 813,700 Up 41.0% | 82,000 Down 20.0% |
@USDA GATS January 2020
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
Not much new on the fishing side of things with the mini-ban in place. Imarpe has started a voyage to check out the fish situation with results expected this coming week. If all looks ok, then we could be back to fishing for a couple of weeks.
People are now talking about the next fishing season – just as if this season is over. The feeling seems to be that the high levels of juvenile fish could mean that the catch next season will be very good.
No sales at all were reported this week in Peru – some say that producers have increased their asking prices by about USD 200 m/t, but no business is being done.
Peru's final 2019 export numbers show that total fishmeal exports were just a little over 1 million with 74.3% of the exports (764,000 m/t) going to China, Japan was second at 76,000 m/t then Vietnam at 46,000. Total fishmeal shipments from Peru to all of Europe were just less than 51,000 m/t with all Asia reaching 923,000 m/t 0r 90% of total fishmeal exports of 1,028,600 m/t.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,565 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,375 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,450 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,500 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,590
|
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
|
|
|
|
| 65/66 protein | 1050/1070 m/t |
|
| 67% protein standard steam | 1150/1160 m/t |
|
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1200/1210 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1250/1260 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1300/1310 m/t | No prices |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1400/1420 m/t | No prices |
|
|
|
|
| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1800/1850 |
|
| Fish oil, crude drums | 1850/1900 |
|
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1950/2000 |
|
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2000/2200 |
|
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2020 Wayne S. Bacon
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