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WEEKLY GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT January 04, 2020
All the holidays in North America are now behind us for a while and by next week everything there should be about back to normal. Looking at prices, the week ended with a down day for all grains and soybeans which made the week look like about an unchanged week – at least for futures prices.
On Thursday some were saying that the markets had changed to bullish, but the bears came out on Friday and changed all that. Corn export sales for the week were not so good which helped to weaken corn somewhat and ethanol production was down a little, so it didn't take too much to push corn prices down from the week's highs. Ethanol production is expected to continue to shrink a little for the next couple of months so this may keep corn prices on the weak side.
Poor old soybeans – good news, bad news all kinds of news – pointing up and pointing down. Brazil's soybean crop is expected to be at record levels and China has stocked up on Brazil beans. Not that the US is going to stop exporting soybeans just that there is lots of competition out there for the world's soybean business and that tends to stop prices from running higher.
Wheat prices slipped a bit on Friday as the market seemed to have decided that prices had moved too high too quickly – at least that was the opinion for the day. The situation in the US for the winter wheat crop seems to have improved a little which may add a little more weakness to the US prices. On the other hand, international wheat prices have been quite strong of late and may still have some room to move higher.
The first 2020 USDA WASDE report is out on the 10th of January, so we have a few days to wait to see exactly what the USDA thinks about world grains.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
The new 2020 sulpher dioxide emissions standard for ocean vessels came into place as of January 01, 2020 with many in the industry expecting that ocean freight rates will increase from 5% to 15% due to the higher cost of low sulpher fuel. No serious change in rates so far but any sulpher related changes will take a little time to develop, if they do develop.
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $18/19.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $18/19.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $57/58.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $41/42.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $46/47.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $45/46.00 |
| X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 |
| X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $56/57.00 |
| X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $58/59.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $41/42.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $38/39.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $19/20.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $22/23.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $16/17.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $52/53.00 |
| X |
|
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|
|
|
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $33/34.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $36/37.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $35/36.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $27/28.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $43/44.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $44/45.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $33/34.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 |
| X |
|
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $43/44.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $34/35.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $33/34.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $45/46.00 |
| x |
| Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20/20.50 |
| X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $21/21.50 |
| X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $33/34.00 |
| X |
|
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|
| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $17/18.00 |
| X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $25/26.00 |
| X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $25/26.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $16/17.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $17/18.00 |
| X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $28/29.00 |
| X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $40/41.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $36/37.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $23/24.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $23/24.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $24/25.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $23/24.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $44/45.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $17/18.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 907 |
| X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 1507 |
| X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 949 |
| X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 662 |
| X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 452 |
| X |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR January 2020/March 2020
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 253/256 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 226/229 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 213/215 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 219/221 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 216/218 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 216/218 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 207/210 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 206/208 | X |
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|
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 190/192 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 177/180 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 186/189 | X |
|
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 177/179 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 191/193 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 178/181 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 187/190 | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 192/194 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 176/179 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 191/193 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 177/180 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 142/145 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 185/188 | X |
|
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 343/346 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 368/371 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 362/365 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 329/332 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 352/355 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 323/326 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 367/370 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 372/375 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 367/370 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 366/369 | X |
|
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 537/542 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 214/217 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 217/220 m/t | x |
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Corn byproduct prices continue to creep a little higher each week. With very little business being done due to all the holidays it is not too easy to get a 100% accurate picture of where current prices are.
The table below on containerized shipments from the US is quite interesting with almost 2 million m/t of DDGS being shipped by container in just 9 months. According to the report that goes with the table DDGS have been the main user of export containers but other products, like soybeans, are catching up. Still, a total of close to 500,000 containers of grain and grain products is certainly a pile of containers
You can get the complete report from:
https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/GTR12192019.pdf
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 340/350 m/t CNF Asia USD 370/380 m/t CNF Asia USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 630/640 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 430/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 380/390 to Indonesia USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 380/400 m/t CNF Asia USD 590/600 m/t CNF Asia |
Contrary to what I had expected there are no animal protein reports for the international side of the business being issued this week ---- just too many holidays. For sure the Jacobsen Report will be back next week and I assume the same with other reports.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing in Peru is currently at about zero due to the 10 day fishing ban that is in place. There is lots of speculation as to what will happen with the fishing season with some suggesting that it could be extended into February. The problem will be that fishing will be getting into the spawning season if it goes beyond January. So, as MSI Ceres put it this week: "January is our only hope".
The fishing quota for southern Peru has expired with only 4,600 m/t of the 540,000 m/t quota being landed. There are 7 or so fishmeal facilities in the south that depend on the catch with the last few months not being at all good for them – lets hope that 2020 will bring a better fishing success in the south.
As to sales – there is nothing new being done as most producers are oversold and are counting on January fishing to get them even with production versus existing sales.
Once we get back to fishing, we need some very big catch numbers – this to put a smile back on everyone's face. Of course, we may just see poor fishing and skyrocketing prices. Roll on January.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,580 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,365 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,385 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,475 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,595
|
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1050/1070 m/t |
|
| 67% protein standard steam | 1150/1160 m/t |
|
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1200/1210 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1250/1260 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1300/1310 m/t | No prices |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1400/1420 m/t | No prices |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1800/1850 |
|
| Fish oil, crude drums | 1850/1900 |
|
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1950/2000 |
|
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2000/2200 |
|
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2020 Wayne S. Bacon
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