-------------------------
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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz
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WEEKLY GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT March 07, 2020
Corn prices moved up by about USD 4 m/t this week while soybeans/soymeal prices were steady and US winter wheat prices slipped about USD 3 m/t lower.
Trade reports say that corn prices were higher this week as a reaction to the overselling of last week that pushed corn prices down too much. With March being an in-between month where not much changes, all the market experts are looking far and wide to find good reasons to forecast where the prices will go. With corn there seems to be some concern that there could be a wet spring in the US which may cause a rally in corn prices – long term weather forecasts look wet.
Most experts seem to feel that there won't be any sudden change in corn prices but will carry on in a plus or minus USD 5 to 10 trading range until we get the next market shaking news.
Soybean/soymeal prices did try to move higher this week but just couldn't do it. There have been some weather delays in shipping soybeans from Brazil but that is not a long term problem. Brazil is looking at a record soybean crop and the harvest is about 50% completed, although delayed a little by the rainfall.
There was an interesting story in the trade this week on China's change to a vegan diet, brought on, stories say, by the coronavirus outbreak. Vegetables don't get coronavirus – unless someone sneezes on them. Coronavirus and African Swine Fever seem to be pushing China away from meat consumption – or so the stories go.
Looking at wheat prices this week – the market says that any weakness in prices was strictly weather related. Sine there seems to be nothing bad in the long term weather it is easy to understand why winter wheat prices could slide a bit lower.
Top 20 US Export Destinations for Grains and Oilseeds –
1 month to January 2020 – in m/t
| Country
| Wheat | Corn | Sorghum | Soybeans | Soymeal |
| Algeria |
|
|
|
|
|
| Bangladesh |
|
|
| 112,600 |
|
| Brazil | 32,800 |
|
|
|
|
| Burma |
|
|
|
| 32,200 |
| Cameroon |
|
|
|
|
|
| Canada |
| 121,700 | 500 | 13,800 | 76,600 |
| China |
| 1,100 | 122,300 | 2,141,100 |
|
| Colombia | 22,400 | 549,300 |
| 42,300 | 132,900 |
| Costa Rica |
| 110,600 |
|
|
|
| Djibouti |
|
|
|
|
|
| Dominican Rep |
| 6,700 |
|
| 20,700 |
| Ecuador | 82,400 |
|
|
| 43,300 |
| El Salvador |
| 12,300 |
|
| 5,100 |
| Egypt |
|
|
| 239,100 |
|
| Eritrea |
|
|
|
|
|
| Ethiopia | 31,000 |
|
|
|
|
| Germany |
|
|
|
|
|
| Guatemala | 38,600 | 89,000 |
|
| 34,900 |
| Honduras |
| 34,000 |
|
| 21,000 |
| Indonesia | 146,000 |
|
| 102,800 |
|
| Iraq |
|
|
|
|
|
| Israel |
|
|
|
|
|
| Italy |
|
|
| 45,100 |
|
| Jamaica |
| 22,100 |
|
|
|
| Japan | 256,300 | 398,000 | 22,500 | 231,200 | 13,300 |
| Kenya |
|
|
|
|
|
| Madagascar |
|
| 800 |
|
|
| Malaysia | 32,900 |
|
| 54,300 |
|
| Mexico | 235,600 | 1,000,400 | 106,000 | 456,400 | 157,100 |
| Morocco |
|
|
|
| 32,100 |
| Netherlands |
|
|
| 472,300 |
|
| New Zealand |
|
|
|
|
|
| Nigeria | 100,600 |
|
|
|
|
| Nicaragua |
| 20,900 |
|
|
|
| Pakistan |
|
|
| 206,700 |
|
| Panama |
| 8,400 |
|
| 3,000 |
| Peru |
| 14,600 |
|
| 49,200 |
| Philippines | 347,100 |
|
|
| 203,200 |
| Portugal |
|
|
| 26,500 |
|
| Saudi Arabia |
|
|
|
|
|
| Somalia |
|
|
|
|
|
| South Africa |
|
|
|
|
|
| South Korea | 130,500 | 2,800 |
| 68,800 |
|
| Spain |
|
|
| 280,400 |
|
| Sri Lanka |
|
|
|
| 21,300 |
| Sudan |
|
|
|
|
|
| Taiwan | 64,400 | 55,300 |
| 302,700 |
|
| Thailand | 52,700 |
|
| 80,200 | 2,500 |
| Trinidad |
| 16,300 |
|
|
|
| Venezuela |
|
|
|
|
|
| Vietnam |
|
|
| 118,900 | 7,700 |
| Yemen | 29,500 |
|
|
|
|
| Zimbabwe |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Total exports | 1,872,000 | 2,494,800 | 252,100 | 5,319,200 | 964,600 |
@USDA GATS March 2020
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $15/16.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $15/16.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $26/27.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $34/35.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $34/35.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $58/59.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $40/41.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $44/45.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $43/44.00 |
| X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 |
| X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $24/25.00 |
| X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $23/24.00 |
| X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $56/57.00 |
| X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $57/58.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $40/41.00 |
| X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $42/43.00 |
| X |
|
|
|
|
|
| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $42/43.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $39/40.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $35/36.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $45/46.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $53/54.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $35/36.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $34/35.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $48/49.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | No info |
| X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $48/49.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $31/32.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $30/31.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $43/44.00 |
| x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $48/49.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $22/22.50 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $23/23.50 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $24/25.00 |
| X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $25/26.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $18/19.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $20/21.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $24/25.00 |
| X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $28/29.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $37/38.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $25/26.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $24/25.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $34/35.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $46/47.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 |
| X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 617 | Up 82 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | -312 | Up 16 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 1068 | Up 163 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 688 | Up 82 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 350 | Up 26 | x |
|
|
|
|
|
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR March 2020/May 2020
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 235>>230 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 215/218 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 210/213 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 213/216 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 214/217 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 213/216 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 235/238 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 207/210 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 183/186 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 190/193 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 186/189 | x |
|
|
|
|
| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 176/179 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 189/192 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 168/171 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 164/167 | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 193/195 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 184/187 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 203/206 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 179/182 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 147/150 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 188/191 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 349/352 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 374/377 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 366/368 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 338/341 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 353/356 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 328/331 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 348/351 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 332/335 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 342/345 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 383/386 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 590/595 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 192/197 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 223>>217 m/t | x |
|
|
|
|
US DDGS prices moved higher this week, at least for March/April supply. The export situation is quite tight for DDGS for March and much of April but improves a little into May. The complication for buyers who take container shipments will be the problem in getting containers and how much higher the container freight rates will move.
The US Grains Council report this week was saying the CNF prices into Asia for DDGS were as much as USD 11 m/t higher.
Corn gluten meal prices remain steady/higher as export demand is very good as CGM is being used to replace fishmeal in some animal feed formulations. Both CGM and poultry meal are seeing strong export demand increases as fishmeal supply is extremely limited.
USA exports of corn by-products – 1 months to January 2020 – major destinations and selected countries – in m/t
| Country | Distillers Dried Grains DDGS
| Corn Gluten Meal
| Corn Gluten Feed
|
| Australia |
| 300 |
|
| Bangladesh | 4,200 | 2,000 |
|
| Burma |
| 300 |
|
| Canada | 39,200 | 4,000 |
|
| Chile |
| 9,500 |
|
| China | 14,100 |
|
|
| Colombia | 10,600 | 8,200 | 1,600 |
| Ecuador |
| 100 |
|
| Egypt |
| 3,000 |
|
| El Salvador |
|
|
|
| Guatemala |
| 1,900 |
|
| Honduras |
| 200 |
|
| Indonesia | 115,600 |
| 100 |
| Ireland | 35,800 |
| 27,300 |
| Israel | 18,000 |
| 9,000 |
| Japan | 52,900 | 1,100 |
|
| Malaysia |
| 6,100 |
|
| Mexico | 169,900 | 1,000 | 500 |
| Morocco | 21,500 |
| 6,800 |
| New Zealand | 16,000 |
|
|
| Peru |
| 700 |
|
| Philippines | 30,100 | 200 |
|
| Portugal |
|
|
|
| South Korea | 129,100 |
|
|
| Spain |
|
|
|
| Taiwan | 25,300 | 2,700 |
|
| Thailand | 72,700 | 2,600 | 700 |
| Turkey | 86,300 |
| 7,000 |
| UK | 21,500 |
| 7,300 |
| Vietnam | 55,400 | 1,700 |
|
| Other |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Total exports | 976,700 | 57,200 | 60,200 |
@USDA GATS March 2020
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 350/360 m/t CNF Asia USD 390/400 m/t CNF Asia USD 430/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 670/680 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 460/470 m/t CNF Asia USD 420/450 to Indonesia USD 430/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 700/730 m/t CNF Asia |
Prices for animal proteins into major markets in Asia are all moving higher. Container freight rates are up quite a bit while the supply of meat and bone meal from Australia and New Zealand is tightening. There has also been very good demand for poultry meal due to the lack of available fishmeal from Peru/Chile.
Export demand for all animal proteins is quite good but tightening supply and a shortage of containers along with higher container freight rates are all combining to move CNF prices higher.
US domestic prices for meat and bone meal are quite strong – producers are expecting the Mexico market to reopen and for demand to take a decent jump higher. The Jacobsen Report is saying that higher MBM prices are to be expected.
Coronavirus and a shortage of containers should hit the animal protein market in coming days which should mean that export prices will remain steady to higher.
USA exports of animal protein – 1 months to January 2020 – major destinations – in m/t
| Destination | Meat and bone meal – includes poultry and pork meal
| Feather meal
|
| Burma |
|
|
| Cambodia |
|
|
| Canada | 3,300 | 100 |
| Chile | 1,800 | 3,133 |
| China | 17,000 |
|
| Colombia |
|
|
| Dominican Rep |
|
|
| Ecuador | 1,700 |
|
| Guatemala | 200 |
|
| Honduras | 400 |
|
| Indonesia | 18,900 | 3,250 |
| Malaysia | 1,300 |
|
| Mexico | 17,100 |
|
| Peru | 400 | 100 |
| Philippines | 4,200 |
|
| Sri Lanka | 200 |
|
| Thailand | 3,000 |
|
| Vietnam | 9,400 | 500 |
|
|
|
|
| Total exports | 79,100 | 7,100 |
@USDA GATS March 2020
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Very little to report from Peru this week – still no new fishing quota announced for the Southern Region.
According to MSI Ceres there have been some "rumors" of offers for presales on next seasons production. No firm price indications for the new season yet but prices do seem to be creeping a little higher.
MSI Ceres was also pointing out that the quota for the upcoming season over years past normally represents between 25 and 35% of the available biomass. They expect that this year's quota will be on the conservative side, which could mean around 2 million m/t of catch. Looking back at the past 5 years the quota has varied from a low of 1.8 mm/t to a high of 3.3 mm/t. We will all just have to wait and see what IMARPE comes up with for biomass then we can do some serious guessing.
Speaking of IMARPE, looks like quite a scandal in Peru regarding the last quota and the "possibility" of some involvement of fishing companies in setting the quota – an investigation is underway in Peru. Needless to say, IMARPE and the fishing industry are denying any illegal action or any attempted interference with the quota determination.
There are worries in Peru that coronavirus could have a serious effect on fishmeal exports due to a shortage of available containers. The majority of fishmeal is shipped in containers and any shortage of empty container will be disaster for the business.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,660 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,420 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,550 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,600 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,610
|
Copyright © 2020 Wayne S. Bacon
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