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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office : +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile : +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT March 21, 2020
It was an interesting week for US futures prices: corn prices dropped by USD 7 to 9 m/t while nearby soybeans were up by about USD 5 m/t and nearby soymeal up by as much as USD 26 m/t. Winter wheat was up strongly with soft red up by just over USD 12 m/t and hard red up by as much as USD 13 m/t.
Sales of US corn to China tried to push corn prices higher with no success – so corn slipped lower on serious concerns about corn demand from the ethanol industry. If COVID-19 keep people from driving and gasoline demand falls then so does ethanol demand and corn usage in ethanol production. With as much as 40% of all US corn going to ethanol it is easy to understand how ethanol production will have a serious effect on corn prices. Gasoline demand in the US is said to be down by 25%.
Purchases of soybeans by China were the main driver of higher US prices while the national quarantine in Argentina was the reason for the nearby rally in soymeal. Trade reports were saying that with the drop in production of DDGS there will be more demand for soymeal and this was enough to help push US soymeal prices higher.
Wheat prices in the US are said to be being moved higher by expected increases in demand for bread, pasta, etc. related to the spread of COVID-19. If everyone is going to do their best to stay home, then demand for wheat flour based items will certainly increase.
The continued increase of COVID-19 in the US will likely continue to move prices higher – at least for the April/May period. If the virus spread can be brought under control, then prices too should get back to pre-virus levels.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $57/58.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $39/40.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $37/38.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 |
| X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $21/22.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $20/21.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $56/57.00 |
| X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $56/57.00 |
| X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $42/43.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $41/42.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $19/20.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $23/24.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $19/20.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $53/54.00 |
| X |
|
|
|
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|
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $32/33.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $31/32.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $46/47.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $47/48.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $35/36.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 |
| X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $22.50/22 | Up $0.50 | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $23/23.50 |
| X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $37/38.00 |
| X |
|
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|
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $23/24.00 |
| X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $22/23.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $17/18.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $24/25.00 |
| X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $33/34.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $35/36.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $22/23.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $19/20.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $22/23.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $23/24.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $24/25.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $26/28.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $46/47.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $17/18.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 625 | Up 6 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | -121 | Up 186 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 807 | Down 200 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 741 | Down 9 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 423 | Up 28 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR April 2020/June 2020
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 240>>230 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 227/230 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 202/205 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 207/210 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 206/209 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 212/214 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 228/231 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 198/201 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 188/190 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 186/189 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 181/184 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 164/167 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 177/180 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 165/168 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 156/160 new crop | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 183/185 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 172/175 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 197/200 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 172/175 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 135/138 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 186/189 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 355/358 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 380/383 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 383/386 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 352/355 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 373/376 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 344/347 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 336/339 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 323/326 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 334/337 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 377/380 | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 590/600 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 203/206 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 232>>220 m/t | X |
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Corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed prices were within the recent trading range of plus/minus USD 5 to 10 m/t.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 350/360 m/t CNF Asia USD 390/400 m/t CNF Asia USD 430/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 670/680 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 470/480 m/t CNF Asia USD 420/450 to Indonesia USD 430/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 700/730 m/t CNF Asia |
Meat and bone meal prices into China are reported to be moving higher as import demand has increased. China is coming out of its COVID-19 problem with restrictions being relaxed. Demand has also increased from other countries in Asia. The increase in demand is coming just as supplies are dropping so it is expected that prices could move higher in coming weeks. Both Australia and New Zealand are said to be showing higher export prices.
Export prices for animal protein from the US are steady but domestic demand is said to be building which should push up export prices. Reports say that COVID-19 has caused consumers to stockpile pet food, so pet food producers in the US have cranked up production and their demand for animal proteins.
For now, it looks like prices will be steady to higher.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Sorry but no update this week on the situation in Peru – there is a shortage of trade reports, probably because offices are closed due to COVID-19 (coronavirus) – or Chinese virus as Donald Trump calls it.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,700 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,350 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,540 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,600 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,620 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1450/1470 m/t |
|
| 67% protein standard steam | 1530/1550 m/t |
|
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1580/1600 m/t | 1550/1570 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1630/1650 m/t | 1600/1620 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1690/1710 m/t | 1640/1660 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1730/1750 m/t | 1730/1750 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2300/2350 |
|
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2350/2400 |
|
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2450/2500 |
|
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2500/2600 |
|
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
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