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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office : +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile : +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT June 06, 2020
So, where did we co on prices this week – corn prices were up just a little, perhaps a dollar or two – soybeans had a nice jump about USD 10 m/t higher with soymeal up by about USD 7 m/t. All types of wheat were down a little on the week: about USD 3 m/t lower on average.
Soybeans were higher on the week due to the rush of large export orders reported by the USDA, most experts feel that China was the soybean buyer but the USDA only reported "unknown destinations". Of course the rally in soybeans pulled soymeal higher. There were some comments in the trade that soybean crushing in China may be running ahead of local demand and that soymeal supplies are building which make call for a slowdown in near term soybean import demand.
The small increase in corn prices is said to be related to strength in the ethanol market and the assumed increase in corn consumption as ethanol tries to get back to normal production levels. Weather in some part of the US is expected to be hot and dry which should help to keep corn prices from moving lower as everyone worries about the weather effect on the early corn crop.
Wheat prices are said to be lower due to the change in the value of the US dollar. Experts had felt that some hot/dry weather might push prices higher but this did not happen. Of course wheat is also facing the upcoming harvest of winter wheat so prices may continue to trend weaker.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $58/59.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $39/40.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $38/39.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 |
| X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $56/57.00 |
| X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $57/58.00 |
| X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 |
| X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $42/43.00 |
| X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $20/21.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 (10,000 dis) | $15/16.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis) | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis) | $20/21.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $34/35.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $39/40.00 | Corrected | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Corrected | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $58/59.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $24/25.00 |
| x |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $25/26.00 |
| x |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $13/14.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $9/10.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $28/29.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $47/48.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $42/43.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $47/48.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $9/10.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $48/49.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $23/23.50 |
| X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 |
| X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh, 50,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Ukraine to India, 50,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $14/15.00 |
| X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Turkey: coaster (1,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $13/14.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis) | $11/12.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $12/13.00 |
| X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $27/28.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $34/35.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $14/15.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $25/26.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $23/24.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $9/10.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $47/48.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 679 | Up 175 |
|
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 736 | Up 690 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 814 | Up 60 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 507 | Up 7 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 294 | Up 23 | X |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR June 2020/August 2020
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 217/220 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 219/222 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 199/201 July | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 205/208 July | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 206/209 July | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 222/224 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 239/242 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 189/192 July | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 189/191 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 179/182 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 177/180 July | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 159/162 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 171/174 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 147/150 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 147/150 Aug | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 195/197 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 184/187 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 181/184 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 179/182 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 128/131 Jul/Aug | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 218>>213 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 343/346 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 368/371 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 346/349 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 327/330 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 348/351 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 321/324 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 346/349 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 344/347 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 358/361 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 393/396 | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 515/550 m/t June/Sept | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 196/199 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 202/205 m/t | X |
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Corn gluten meal was very interesting this week as major buyers realized that CGM had dropped in price by close to USD 100 m/t. Some very timely export buyers were able to cover their needs but when the big buyers (or a lot of smaller buyers) jumped in CGM prices rallied USD 50 m/t higher. June/July CGM seems to be sold out and August/September is much higher – perhaps the Aug/Sep prices will ease a little when the buying rush is over.
With DDGS, the market seems to feel that we have seen the low for current prices and we now are trading in a plus/minus USD 5 range. However there is the odd comment in trade reports that DDGS prices should be moving higher as competitive DDGS prices have increased usage in feed rations and this could tighten supply and push prices up a tad.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 415/435 m/t CNF Asia USD 460/480 m/t CNF Asia USD 450/470 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/820 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 515/535 m/t CNF Asia USD 420/440 to Indonesia USD 430/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 440/460 m/t CNF Asia USD 820/840 m/t CNF Asia |
The price for meat and bone meal (MBM) into major Asian markets moved lower again this week on quite low demand. Both New Zealand and Australia are reported to have good supply levels for export an this is putting downward pressure on animal protein prices – mainly on MBM.
Animal protein prices in the US continued weak as supply was good but sellers had to fight more attractive prices for vegetable protein. There should be an increase in demand form end users in the US which should stop the slide in prices but no one seems to be expecting higher prices in the near future.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing to date in Peru was up to close to 740,000 m/t which leaves about 1.68 million m/t to go on the fishing quota --- this will produce about 166,000 m/t of fishmeal and 25,500 m/t of fishoil.
Looking at the fishing by region, the center section of Peru had juvenile fish levels as high as 67% but the level of 30 to 40% juveniles was wide spread. In the north the juvenile level was much lower at 11 to 14% and as low as 0% in some areas.
According to trade reports the fishing so far will just about cover all the sales to date which means that producers will probably start considering new business quite seriously. The trade also says that most majors want to see prices stay in the USD 1700 area for Super Prime but that buyers from China are looking at price levels that could be as much as USD 100 m/t lower.
Sellers are not expected to suddenly book a lot of business as there is concern in the trade about how close to quota the fishing will get and how much fishmeal there will be to sell. We will probably have to get further into the fishing and build a little supply before producers become enthusiastic sellers.
The MSI Ceres report this week mentioned that supplies of Super Prime in China are getting thinner and new supplies from Peru are still far away – at least the end of July. Perhaps the run down in China's supply will help to keep prices steady in Peru.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,810 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,450 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,550 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,600 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,860 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1450/1470 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1500/1520 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1550/1570 m/t | 1530/1550 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1600/1620 m/t | 1570/1590 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1650/1670 m/t | 1620/1640 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1700/1720 m/t | 1650/1680 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2300/2350 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | 2350/2400 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2450/2500 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2500/2600 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2020 Wayne S. Bacon
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