-------------------------
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PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT September 05, 2020
This weekend is a long holiday weekend in the US with markets closed on Monday for Labor Day. Labor Day is seen as the end of the summer in the US and Canada and the time for all children and young people to head back to school. And for most women, Labor Day is day that is end of wearing white summer slacks.
The corn market was very flat this week with little or no change in prices as opposed to soybeans which were up another USD 6 or 7 m/t and soymeal which was up by about USD 8 to 10 m/t. All wheat prices were down a little on Friday but on the week Hard Red Winter wheat was up by about USD 5 m/t.
Corn looks to be seeing better weather in the next few days with some dryness in the forecast. With the corn harvest not all that far away, there is still room for a bad weather that could affect the harvest and rally prices.
Soybeans remain strong on good export sales and the concern over the US soybean crop yields. Perhaps yields may not be as good as had been forecasted. However, most experts are saying that any drop in soybean yields will probably be very small.
While wheat prices did slip a little on Friday, prices are still very close to the five-month highs. Higher prices for wheat in the Black Sea could help to keep US prices steady to higher. Looking at the winter wheat planting situation – rainfall has improved in some areas which could mean better planting results.
Top 20 US Export Destinations for Grains and Oilseeds –
7 months to July 2020 – in m/t
| Country
| Wheat | Corn | Sorghum | Soybeans | Soymeal |
| Algeria | 65,300 |
|
|
|
|
| Bangladesh |
|
|
| 813,000 |
|
| Belgium |
|
|
|
| 28,700 |
| Brazil | 434,200 |
|
|
|
|
| Burma |
|
|
|
| 148,400 |
| Cameroon |
|
| 1,500 |
|
|
| Canada |
| 1,004,700 | 3,500 | 92,600 | 598,700 |
| China |
| 857,500 | 2,856,2300 | 4,208,700 |
|
| Chile |
|
|
|
|
|
| Colombia | 422,300 | 3,426,800 |
| 325,200 | 822,000 |
| Costa Rica |
| 552,100 |
| 171,700 | 55,800 |
| Cuba |
| 29,000 |
|
|
|
| Denmark |
|
|
|
|
|
| Djibouti |
|
| 10,000 |
|
|
| Dominican Rep |
| 472,000 |
|
| 236,000 |
| Ecuador | 336,300 |
|
|
| 391,700 |
| El Salvador |
| 379,000 |
|
| 142,500 |
| Egypt |
|
|
| 2,436,100 |
|
| Eritrea |
|
| 33,000 |
|
|
| Ethiopia | 91,000 |
| 60,700 |
|
|
| France |
|
| 45,700 |
|
|
| Germany |
|
|
|
|
|
| Guatemala | 354,900 | 807,200 |
|
| 271,800 |
| Honduras |
| 437,600 |
|
| 170,800 |
| Indonesia | 843,200 |
|
| 1,346,100 |
|
| Iraq |
|
|
|
|
|
| Israel |
| 466,600 |
|
| 77,000 |
| Italy | 560,600 |
|
| 164,200 |
|
| Jamaica |
| 141,300 |
|
| 56,600 |
| Japan | 1,536,200 | 7,584,900 | 191,200 | 1,453,000 | 89,600 |
| Kenya |
|
|
|
|
|
| Madagascar |
|
| 2,000 |
|
|
| Malaysia | 219,500 |
|
| 375,700 |
|
| Mexico | 1,959,200 | 8,783,400 | 262,000 | 2,723,400 | 1,048,700 |
| Morocco |
| 43,400 |
|
| 281,100 |
| Netherlands |
|
|
| 1,107,000 |
|
| New Zealand |
|
| 34,700 |
|
|
| Nigeria | 767,600 |
|
|
|
|
| Nicaragua |
| 237,000 |
|
| 58,900 |
| Pakistan |
|
|
| 265,000 |
|
| Panama |
| 271,100 |
|
| 111,900 |
| Peru | 142,700 | 553,500 |
| 144,700 | 234,600 |
| Philippines | 1,944,700 | 70,900 |
|
| 1,408,300 |
| Portugal |
|
|
| 26,500 |
|
| Saudi Arabia |
| 632,600 |
| 65,100 |
|
| Somalia |
|
| 45,500 |
|
|
| South Africa |
|
| 4,200 |
|
|
| South Korea | 862,000 | 2,483,700 | 500 | 276,500 |
|
| Spain |
|
|
| 344,400 |
|
| Sri Lanka |
|
|
|
| 104,300 |
| Sudan |
|
| 85,200 |
|
|
| Taiwan | 679,600 | 567,2400 |
| 693,300 |
|
| Thailand | 481,100 |
|
| 452,100 | 15,600 |
| Trinidad |
| 61,400 |
|
|
|
| Tunisia |
|
|
| 62,500 |
|
| Venezuela |
|
|
|
| 118,000 |
| Vietnam |
| 221,200 |
| 418,900 | 110,000 |
| Yemen | 484,400 |
| 7,100 |
|
|
| Zimbabwe |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Total all | 15,910,200 | 31,641,200 | 3,598,000 | 19,064,000 | 7,781,500 |
@USDA GATS September 2020
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax (10,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t (5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady |
|
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $41/42.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $63/64.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $63/64.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $21/22.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $57/58.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax (10,000 dis) | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis) | $40/41.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis) | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $51/52.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $70/71.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax, with top-off | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax, with top-off | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $29/30.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $58/59.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $58/59.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $39/40.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $58/59.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Australia to China: Panamax – round trip | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: Panamax – round trip | $39/39.50 | Up $4.00 | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Up $4.00 | X |
|
|
|
|
|
| Ukraine to China: Panamax | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh, Panamax | $58/59.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to India, Panamax | $51/52.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Turkey: coaster (1,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis) | $15/16.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: Panamax (4,000 disch) | $51/52.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax (5,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – Panamax | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $16/17.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $59/60.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
|
|
|
|
|
| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 1362 | Down 126 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 1960 | Down 258 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 1473 | Down 144 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 953 | Down 5 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 569 | Down 1 | x |
|
|
|
|
|
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR October 2020/December 2020
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 244>>250 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 236>>240 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 215/217 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 217/219 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 219/221 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 227/229 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 241/243 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 212/214 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 204/206 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 195/198 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 184/187 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 180/183 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 192/195 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 176/179 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 186/189 | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 203/205 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 183/186 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 183/186 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 180/183 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 140/143 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 237/240 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 370/373 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 395/398 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 388/391 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 360/363 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 394/397 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 369/372 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 396/399 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 391/394 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 420/423 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 393/395 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 530>>550 m/t Oct>>DEC | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 180/185 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 215/220 m/t | x |
|
|
|
|
US price for DDGS are moving higher again, at least in markets in the US, as local demand for DDGS is very good. Soymeal prices moved higher again this week which helped add some strength to DDGS prices. It is also reported that DDGS export demand from Asia is also picking up. It doesn't look like we will be seeing any weakness in DDGS prices in coming days.
Corn gluten meal price were a little weaker due to improvement in the supply situation. Export CGM prices dropped by about USD 20 m/t. There does seem to be a reasonable amount of export interest, but buyers are bidding well below current market prices.
Corn gluten feed prices were steady on the week.
USA exports of corn by-products – 7 months to July 2020
– major destinations and selected countries – in m/t
| Country | Distillers Dried Grains DDGS
| Corn Gluten Meal
| Corn Gluten Feed
|
| Australia |
| 3,400 |
|
| Bangladesh | 65,000 | 14,400 | 900 |
| Burma | 20,100 | 800 |
|
| Canada | 217,400 | 30,100 |
|
| Chile |
| 96,700 |
|
| China | 76,000 |
|
|
| Colombia | 94,000 | 46,300 | 13,900 |
| Costa Rica | 45,800 |
|
|
| Ecuador |
| 1,700 |
|
| Egypt | 97,000 | 43,000 |
|
| El Salvador | 31,700 | 5,200 |
|
| Guatemala | 35,700 | 4,300 |
|
| Honduras |
| 4,200 |
|
| Indonesia | 546,100 | 77,400 | 5,600 |
| Ireland | 128,500 |
| 151,400 |
| Israel | 133,200 |
| 103,800 |
| Japan | 276,900 | 10,300 |
|
| Malaysia | 23,600 | 28,600 |
|
| Mexico | 1,032,200 | 6,700 | 7,300 |
| Morocco | 105,600 |
| 35,800 |
| New Zealand | 112,900 |
| 7,200 |
| Peru |
| 4,900 |
|
| Philippines | 148,600 | 1,100 |
|
| Portugal |
|
| 5,000 |
| South Korea | 720,000 | 100 |
|
| Spain |
|
|
|
| Sri Lanka |
| 2,600 |
|
| Taiwan | 140,300 | 20,700 | 100 |
| Thailand | 619,600 | 17,300 | 1,800 |
| Tunisia |
| 600 |
|
| Turkey | 400,800 |
| 7,000 |
| UK | 104,200 |
| 26,800 |
| Vietnam | 670,900 | 9,700 | 2,200 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Total all | 6,351,400 | 443,300 | 376,500 |
@USDA GATS September 2020
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 440/460 m/t CNF Asia USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 450/470 m/t CNF Asia USD 320/340 to Indonesia USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/820 m/t CNF Asia |
Meat and Bone meal (MBM) prices tended to move higher in most of Asia this week – except for Indonesia where prices were steady. Supplies of MBM from both Australia and New Zealand are tightening. A number of slaughter houses are closed due to COVID-19 outbreaks.
USA animal protein prices also moved a little higher with this said to be due to higher soymeal prices and the holiday weekend in the US. Reports say that there has been very good demand for feathermeal both in the US and for export.
Trade reports seem to feel that there will only be limited upside in animal protein prices as supply should be steady.
Looking at the US export table below it is easy to see there are limited countries that buy large amount of US animal proteins.
USA exports of animal protein – 7 months to July 2020
– major destinations – in m/t
| Destination | Meat and bone meal – includes poultry and pork meal
| Feather meal
|
| Canada | 30,300 | 3,900 |
| Chile | 2,400 | 14,200 |
| China | 103,900 | 1,500 |
| Colombia | 1,400 |
|
| Ecuador | 17,000 |
|
| Guatemala | 4,400 |
|
| Honduras | 4,300 | 300 |
| Indonesia | 124,700 | 25,200 |
| Malaysia | 6,300 |
|
| Mexico | 112,200 |
|
| Peru | 4,300 | 500 |
| Philippines | 31,700 | 500 |
| Thailand | 16,000 |
|
| Vietnam | 77,900 | 6,600 |
|
|
|
|
| Total exports | 539.600 | 53,100 |
@USDA GATS September 2020
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Still no fishing in the south of Peru.
The IMARPE cruise is on the way – the full research cruise is expected to take about 3 weeks.
According to trade reports, the fishmeal future business has slacked off with about 115,000 m/t of next seasons fishmeal now booked. If the quota ends up at 2.0 million m/t then these presales will be about 25% of the next seasons production.
MSI Ceres mentioned in their weekly report this week that the average landings for the next season over 10 year was at 1.463 million m/t. On average this is quite a bit lower than the 2.0 mm/t that the trade expects as a quota. As MSI Ceres points out, it is one thing to have a quota and another to land the fish.
Fishmeal consumption in China is said to be very good as China is now in the Aqua season. Stocks in China are being sold off as quickly as possible as new supplies will be arriving in September/October.
According to the latest fishmeal export analysis for January/July, 88% of all Peru's fishmeal exports go to Asian nations with about 5% going to Europe and 5% to North and South America. Needless to say, Asia is where the business is. Of the 88% that goes to Asia, 76% is for China alone. These days fishmeal exports are mainly just one country business: China.
Looking at prices, there are no changes this week – fishmeal futures prices are steady.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,760 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,465 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,450 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,490 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,730 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
|
|
|
|
| 65/66 protein | 1120/1140 m/t |
|
| 67% protein standard steam | 1210/1230 m/t |
|
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1320/1340 m/t | 1320/1340 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1370/1390 m/t | 1370/1390 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1420/1440 m/t | 1420/1440 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1470/1490 m/t | 1450/1470 m/t |
|
|
|
|
| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2100/2200 | 1900/2000 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2150/2250 |
|
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2250/2350 |
|
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2200/2300 |
|
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2020 Wayne S. Bacon
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