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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT August 29, 2020
Aha, a week of positive prices with everything making a move higher. Corn prices were up by USD 6 to 8 m/t, soybeans up by USD 16 to 19 m/t, soymeal up by USD 12 to 14 m/t. Even most wheat prices were able to move higher by about USD 6 m/t. Certainly an up week.
The push higher in the markets had a lot of basis in the weather report for the next few days --- looks like hot and dry for areas that would prefer a little cooler and a lot wetter. With soybeans, the experts are saying that the crop condition report next week should show that soybeans are suffering with expected drops in soybean crop yields. So, with soybeans, we have very good exports, poor crop weather and lower yields – all factors for higher prices.
Corn prices were higher for about the same reasons as soybeans – good export demand along with a poor weather forecast and crop yield concerns. Reports say that Iowa, a major grain state, has been hit extremely hard by the current drought with 96% of the state in drought conditions, the worst conditions in 7 years.
One thing that higher US corn prices accomplished is that the EU import levy, that was tacked on last week, has now dropped back to zero by the end of the week.
And then there is wheat – with all the same weather and drought factors in the US that are seen to be affecting corn and soybeans. The current drought may be a factor in the planting of winter wheat as the soil moisture level could be too low for a good winter crop start – this is pushing prices up a little. On the other side of the coin, the harvest of spring wheat is said to be falling behind due to heavy rains in some areas.
All in all, it is just that darn weather again that is pushing prices higher.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax (10,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t (5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $40/41.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $42/43.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $63/64.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $63/64.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $23/24.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $57/58.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax (10,000 dis) | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 (4k dis) | $39/40.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k dis) | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $50/51.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $69/70.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax, with top-off | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax, with top-off | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 dis) | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $57/58.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $58/59.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $39/40.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $57/58.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
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| Australia to China: Panamax – round trip | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: Panamax – round trip | $35/35.50 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
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| Ukraine to China: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh, Panamax | $58/59.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to India, Panamax | $49/50.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Turkey: coaster (1,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 dis) | $16/17.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $37/38.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: Panamax (4,000 disch) | $50/51.00 | Up $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: Panamax (8,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax (5,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – Panamax | $29/30.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $16/17.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $58/59.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 1488 | Up 7 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | 2218 | Up 58 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 1617 | Down 36 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 958 | Down 4 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 570 | Up 24 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR September 2020/November 2020
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 244>>249 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 238>>243 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 207/210 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 211/214 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 215/218 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 226/228 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 241/243 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 203/206 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 205/208 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 195/198 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 183/186 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 179/182 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 192/195 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 175/178 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 186/189 | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 197/200 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 172/175 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 178/181 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 180/183 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 140/143 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 234/237 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 357/360 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 382/385 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 381/384 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 351/354 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 381/384 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 355/358 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 386/389 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 385/388 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 413/416 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 393/395 | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 540>>560 m/t Sep>>Nov | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 180/185 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 220/225 m/t | x |
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As expected, higher corn prices are having an effect on corn byproduct prices. DDGS in the US is seen to be about USD 7 m/t higher on the week. According to trade reports, demand for DDGS has been good both for domestic and export markets – so, for now, no one is looking to lower prices.
With corn gluten meal, the situation is a little more difficult with there seeming to be quite a wide spread on export prices depending on who you are talking to. Variations between suppliers show a spread of about USD 30 m/t. However, the big run up in CGM prices looks to be under control for now with prices representing what is happening in the protein market more closely.
It is expected that corn byproduct prices will continue to follow whatever is happening in the corn and protein markets --- and for now that is to higher prices.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 385/400 m/t CNF Asia USD 430/445 m/t CNF Asia USD 410/430 m/t CNF Asia USD 770/790 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 430/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 340/360 to Indonesia USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia |
Meat and bone meal prices to major markets in Asia have moved higher by about USD 20 m/t this week. Increases in world soymeal prices along with higher domestic prices in Australia and New Zealand helped to push prices higher. However, experts say that continued low prices from the US keep prices from moving much higher. If the main source of supply was from OZ and New Zealand, then price for MBM would be higher.
The US domestic market seems to be following along with what soymeal prices are doing with some experts looking for an increase in US meat and bone meal prices They see MBM as being priced too low. Both poultry meal and feathermeal prices were steady on the week.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
There were no landings at all in the southern region of Peru. The season has been open for about four weeks with no catch recorded.
The next IMARPE biomass analysis cruise is expected to begin on September 01 looking at egg and larvae count followed by an "acoustic research study" – these two items should take up to 45 day to complete.
Fishmeal prices in Peru moved up by about USD 20 m/t this week --- all the old stock is sold so this is the pricing for next season's fishmeal production. Trade experts feel that there is room for prices to continue higher --- not just from Peru but from most fishmeal origins. The feeling is that the prices will trend higher until we get a good idea of the conditions for the next quota --- good conditions and the price could drop – average or poor conditions would certainly mean higher prices.
The latest export numbers for Peru show total exports for 2020 to the end of July at about 361,000 m/t of fishmeal --- 87% going to Asia and 6% to Europe. As usual, the main importer was China at 265,000 m/t, just over 73% of total Peru fishmeal exports. Japan is the next largest with 22,700 m/t followed by Germany with 15,700 m/t and then Vietnam at 12,200 m/t.
Both charts shown below are courtesy of MSI Ceres (www.msi.ceres.com) and info@msiceres.com
Looking at China's imports, while China is 73% of Peru's fishmeal exports, Peru is only 30% of China's fishmeal imports – but Peru is still the largest shipper of fishmeal to China.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,765 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,470 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,445 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,485 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,755 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1120/1140 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1220/1240 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1320/1340 m/t | 1320/1340 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1370/1390 m/t | 1370/1390 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1420/1440 m/t | 1420/1440 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1470/1490 m/t | 1450/1470 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2100/2200 | 1900/2000 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2150/2250 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2250/2350 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2200/2300 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2020 Wayne S. Bacon
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